Boys please make way

Call it Clash of the Female Titans if you like, although Suphajee Suthumpun and Rukchanok Srinok are not old-guard heavyweights who have been in the political arena for a long, long time. The latter is young and the former, while older, is also a new face in politics.

Both are at least as popular as their parties’ leaders. Some surveys even show Rukchanok is more famous than Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of her People’s Party.

Suphajee has yet to surpass Anutin Charnvirakul in popularity polls, but the Bhumjaithai Party is using her a lot while trying to make inroads into some previously-impregnable sections of voters, and the “Super G fever” has not ended yet.

Another leading woman of the People’s Party is Sirikanya Tansakul, a political new face herself just a few years ago, although Rukchanok somehow has surged into the news more and will become a main reason why the Orange will win or lose the February 8 election.

In fact, the Suphajee fever has very little to do with Rukchanok but it has much to do with the Bhumjaithai woman’s economic debate against Sirikanya, a showdown in which neutral observers rated the commerce minister higher.

While Sirikanya represents the Orange’s economic management resources, Rukchanok led the line on the ideological front, which is putting the younger woman in the news more. This is either a blessing or a curse, and things will become clearer on February 8.

Suphajee is the total opposite of Rukchanok. It’s humility versus boldness, or extremism versus moderate. While Rukchanok is new to politics, her style cannot be exactly classified as unconventional. She is outspoken, as all politicians are. And she is ready to pick a fight, again, as all politicians are.

In politics, Suphajee looks more a breath of fresh air than Rukchanok. Circumstances that brought both women into politics may have a lot to do with their traits. The latter joined the People’s Party because its strong ideology requires a hard, uncompromising push by someone like her. The former is a businesswoman who entered the ring as a stopgap minister and nobody expected an extremely-polite character like her to stay long in the cutthroat landscape.

Maybe Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul would not have made Suphajee his commerce minister if he was setting up a Cabinet under normal political circumstances, where unhealthy horse-trading among coalition parties came into play. A gentleman agreement with the People’s Party in which an early House dissolution was a major promise gave him the freedom to recruit outsiders into his minority government.

That freedom ushered Suphajee into the spotlight, which, frankly, would have been dull without the Trump tariffs. What should have been colourless three or four months under Anutin the interim minority prime minister has turned into an action-packed movie, featuring border battles and crucial trade puzzles.

The People’s Party might be kicking itself now, wondering why it did not choose to accept the Pheu Thai Party’s offer to dissolve the House of Representatives as quickly. That would have kept Bhumjaithai at bay, and Suphajee would have been a million miles away from politics.

If the People’s Party had cut a deal with Pheu Thai, the only thing to worry about during the election campaign might have been whether the Orange would get enough seats to form a single-party government.

Suphajee is a now major part of why the People’s Party is lowering its expectations. There are other factors as well, not least the arrests of Orange election candidates allegedly involved in “grey” businesses and the Thai-Cambodian border tension. Those setbacks are huge, but Suphajee is making them look even bigger without saying a single word about the arrests.

Suphajee is a pleasantly-surprising antidote to tumultuously-divisive Thai politics. But, as one commentator notes, her beauty, elegance and other demeanours caught the eyes only after her impressive Cabinet performances. In other words, without the perceived administrative qualities, the other attractions including the politeness, the sweet face and the warming smiles would have meant nothing in the election run-up.

Rukchanok, meanwhile, is bulldozing ahead, a megaphone in one hand, gaining both critics and admirers along the way. Any other party may have asked her to stop, but the People’s Party is engaged in the sort of politics that needs people like her. She has helped strengthen the Orange’s fan base, and that’s all that matters as long as the biggest party is concerned.

The People’s Party is expected to still dominate Bangkok, thanks in no small part to Rukchanok. Bhumjaithai is, meanwhile, relying on Suphajee in its bid to remind Bangkokians that there is one party called “Bhumjaithai” apart from the familiar faces like the People’s Party, the Pheu Thai Party, the Democrat Party, the Palang Pracharath Party and the United Thai Nation Party.

Both women as well as Sirikanya will influence provincial outcomes of the election as well, although factors like “Big House” politics (long-established clouts of rural political clans) and financial powers are a lot harder to overcome than in the capital.

Analysts believe Rukchanok will appeal more to first-time voters, and she will play a big role in helping her party repeat the 2023 trend in which those voting for the first time found the People’s Party the most interesting. Suphajee will be hoping to buck the trend, and Bhumjaithai has been buoyed by receptions given her at places she visits in Bangkok.

Suphajee’s rising popularity has led to strange criticism of Bhumjaithai, with critics now saying it has to count on “outside” figures to boost its image. In a way, that criticism is weird, because observers of Thai politics had been complaining for a long time that the Thai political landscape was so dirty that qualified outsiders chose to stay away because they didn’t want to be dragged through the mud.

Sirikanya is something in between Rukchanok and Suphajee. She is not as boldly outspoken as her People’s Party’s colleague and arguably not as technically knowledgeable as the commerce minister. She is a calmer face of the People’s Party compared with Rukchanok, and is its economic flagbearer at pre-election debates.

Just over a year ago, Sirikanya was even more popular than her party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, as well as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. That one opinion poll just shows how quickly things can change in politics.

Two months ago, Sirikanya was at the forefront of the People’s Party’s earnest plea for voters to give it a massive landslide victory so it could be in the government. She said a victory was not enough if it was not a convincing triumph, so anything shorter than 250 seats could not guarantee that her party would be in the next government.

Such a plea could resurface when February 8 comes nearer. And if or when it does, the People’s Party might need her more than it needs Rukchanok.

The two women will have to join hands anyway. The other woman will have a big say on whether her Orange female counterparts will succeed or not.