Thailand downgrades 2025 growth forecast amid US tariff fears

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has slashed Thailand’s 2025 economic forecast, citing uncertainty over trade tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump.

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary general of the NESDC, said the economy grew by 3.1 percent from January to March compared with the same period last year.

However, the agency lowered its full-year growth forecast to between 1.3 - 2.3 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.3 - 3.3 percent.

Danucha cited tariff uncertainty and a projected decline in tourist arrivals in 2025 as the main reasons for the downgrade.

“The (trade) talks have not yet been finalized, and there are several countries waiting in line to negotiate,” he told a news conference.

He also said the economic situation in the second quarter is likely to remain sluggish, as private sector investors are holding back until the outcome of the trade negotiations becomes clearer.

Thailand could face a 36 percent levy as part of sweeping global "reciprocal" tariffs proposed by Washington, unless a reduction is agreed upon by July.