解釋報導：美國新聞機構將如何判定期中選舉勝負

作者：賈斯普里特・辛格（Jaspreet Singh）By Jaspreet Singh

路透11月2日電——週二晚間，美國各地新聞編輯室將在近年來該國競爭最激烈的期中選舉週期之一中判定勝選者，而當時所有選票還遠未全數開完。Nov 2 (Reuters) - On Tuesday night, newsrooms across the US will call winners in one of the country's most closely contested midterm election cycles in recent years, long before all the votes are counted.

多數電視網與數位媒體仰賴兩家供應商提供計票結果：美聯社（Associated Press）或選舉數據公司 Decision Desk HQ。Most television networks and digital outlets rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press or election-data firm Decision Desk HQ.

部分新聞媒體如《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）和 MS NOW，將依賴美聯社判定選舉勝負；福斯新聞（Fox News）和 CBS News 等其他媒體，則會根據美聯社計票、出口民調、提前投票票數和自家的統計模型作出自己的預測。Some news outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and MS NOW will rely on the AP for race calls, while others like Fox News and CBS News will make their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls, early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling.

首批勝負判定將在美國投票所開始關閉後不久展開，最早是美東時間下午6時（格林威治時間2300）關閉的印第安納州和肯塔基州；緊接著是下午7時（11月4日格林威治時間0000）關閉的喬治亞州、南卡羅來納州、佛蒙特州和維吉尼亞州。在某些選戰中，如果多數投票已經完成，可能會立即判定勝負。The first calls will start soon after polls begin to close in the United States, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. ET (2300 GMT), and shortly after in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia at 7 p.m. (0000 GMT on November 4). In certain races there may be an instant call if much of the voting has already taken place.

民眾信任度偏低，使新聞媒體判定選舉勝負更加複雜。梅迪爾地方新聞倡議（Medill Local News Initiative）與媒體信任聯盟（Alliance for Trust in Media）10月的一項民調發現，雖然超過60%的美國人對新聞機構報導準確選舉結果有一定信心，但只有32%有高度信心，而且民主黨人比共和黨人更信任新聞機構。Low public trust complicates race calls for news outlets. While more than 60% of Americans have some confidence in news organizations to report accurate election results, only 32% have high confidence, with Democrats more trusting than Republicans, an October poll for the Medill Local News Initiative and the Alliance for Trust in Media found.

雖然多數主要電視網都使用同一套美聯社計票彙整來判定勝負，但決定宣布勝選者的電視網，會以自有資料分析、歷史模型、出口民調訪談和專家判斷等專有組合來判定選戰；當它們認定結果已達統計上的確定性時，就會作出勝負判定。While most of the major TV networks use the same AP vote count tabulation to make their calls, the ones that decide to call winners use a proprietary mix of their own data analysis, historical models, exit poll interviews and expert judgment to call races when they determine that they've become a statistical certainty.

以下是運作方式：Here's how it works:

美聯社計票與勝負判定AP COUNTS AND RACE CALLS

美聯社是一家由會員報紙支持的非營利新聞機構，自1848年以來已統計每一次美國選舉票數，並與全國記者網絡和選舉官員合作核實結果。The AP, a nonprofit newsroom supported by member newspapers, has counted votes in every US election since 1848, working with a national network of reporters and election officials to verify results.

對於2026年期中選舉，美聯社表示將在郡級選舉辦公室和地方投票所部署超過4,000名記者，蒐集資料並提供給 ABC News、CBS News、福斯、CNN 和 NBC News 的決策團隊。ABC、CBS、CNN 和 NBC 也仰賴研究公司 SSRS；該公司於2025年收購了出口民調公司 Edison Research。For the 2026 midterms, the AP said it would deploy more than 4,000 reporters at county election offices and local polling locations, gathering and providing data to the decision desks at ABC News, CBS News, Fox, CNN and NBC News. ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC also rely on research firm SSRS, which acquired exit-polling company Edison Research in 2025.

美聯社也將其選舉計票與勝負判定授權給預測市場 Kalshi；在該平台上，使用者可就真實世界事件的結果交易合約。這類預測市場向來可能造成選民困惑，因為它們顯示的勝算可能每一刻都大幅波動。The AP also licenses its election vote counts and race calls to prediction market Kalshi, where users trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events. These prediction markets have been known to create confusion among voters as they can show wildly swinging odds moment to moment.

包括 Google 和 OpenAI 在內的科技公司已與美聯社合作，讓其選舉結果可透過 Google 搜尋、AI Overviews 和 Gemini，以及 ChatGPT 取得。Technology companies including Google and OpenAI have partnered with the AP to make its election results available through Google Search, AI Overviews and Gemini, as well as ChatGPT.

在作出勝負判定時，美聯社會使用得票總數，並根據過往投票模式和提前投票資料估算仍有多少票尚未開出。只有在落後候選人無法追上時，美聯社才會判定選戰勝負。When making calls, the AP uses vote totals and estimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past voting patterns and early-vote data. It calls a race only when the trailing candidate cannot catch up.

DDHQ 計票與勝負判定DDHQ COUNTS AND RACE CALLS

DDHQ 從各州官方來源蒐集計票結果，通常是州務卿辦公室或州選舉部門。DDHQ collects vote counts from official state sources, usually secretaries of state or state election departments.

該公司利用統計分析、模型和專家審查來預測選舉勝選者。其客戶包括 NewsNation、The Hill 和 Newsmax，最近也簽下伊隆・馬斯克（Elon Musk）旗下社群網路 X。The firm uses statistical analysis, modeling and expert review to project election winners. Its clients include NewsNation, the Hill and Newsmax, and it recently signed up X, the social network owned by Elon Musk.

除了派駐現場的記者外，DDHQ 也使用自動化軟體反覆檢查官方選舉網站，蒐集新公布的得票總數。DDHQ 表示，所有選票中約80%是透過直接從官方選舉網站擷取資料，或由人工監看選舉網站來處理；其餘票數則由記者蒐集。It uses automated software to repeatedly check official election websites and collect newly posted vote totals in addition to using reporters on the ground. DDHQ says roughly 80% of all votes are processed by pulling data directly from official election sites, or by manually monitoring election sites. The remaining counts are collected by reporters.

它計算已開出選票百分比的方式，是將選舉官員通報的得票數，除以它對該選戰總投票率的估計。它以這項整體投票率估計扣除已通報票數，來判定剩餘票數；該估計會在選舉夜根據實際資料進一步修正。It calculates the percentage of ballots counted by dividing the votes reported by election officials by its estimated total turnout for a race. It determines remaining votes by subtracting reported votes from this overall turnout estimate, which is refined on election night using actual data.

最終預測需要團隊一致同意，並由資料科學主管史考特・川特（Scott Tranter）簽核。川特告訴路透：「我們正準備在選舉夜安排數千人投入資料蒐集工作。」Final projections require unanimous team agreement and a sign-off from the head of data science, Scott Tranter. "We’re preparing to have several thousand people working on election night to gather data," Tranter told Reuters.

選戰預測可能出錯RACE PROJECTIONS CAN BE WRONG

撤回勝負判定並不常見，但美聯社和 DDHQ 過去都曾撤回判定結果。Retractions are rare, but both the AP and DDHQ have withdrawn calls in the past.

2025年，DDHQ 撤回了對西雅圖市長選戰的預測。今年稍早，紐澤西州第11國會選區特別選舉的民主黨初選中，選舉日計票使選情偏離其最初預測後，DDHQ 撤回了勝負判定。In 2025, DDHQ withdrew a projection in the Seattle mayor's race. Earlier this year, DDHQ withdrew its call in the Democratic primary for a special election in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District after Election Day vote counts shifted the race away from its initial projection.

2018年，在一名被預測勝選者於加州第21國會選區落居下風後，美聯社在其選戰判定帳號上發文表示，由於民主黨人 T.J. Cox 已在計票中領先，美聯社正在撤回該項判定。In 2018, after a projected winner fell behind in California's 21st Congressional District, the AP posted on its race-call account that it was retracting the call because Democrat T.J. Cox had taken the lead in the vote count.

作出勝負判定的新聞媒體THE NEWS OUTLETS MAKING RACE CALLS

路透將與《今日美國報》（USA Today）合作，蒐集美國參議院與眾議院選舉的即時結果；但對於所有選戰，路透將引用其他新聞機構的勝負判定。Reuters will collect live election results from US Senate and House races in partnership with USA Today, but for all races, Reuters will cite the calls from other news organizations.

與《今日美國報》的合作僅限於資料共享。路透一名發言人表示：「每個新聞編輯室都會獨立製作新聞，並自行決定在其發布內容中何時以及是否使用計票統計。」The partnership with USA Today only extends to data sharing. "Each newsroom produces independent news and will make its own decisions about when and whether to use the vote count tallies in its published content,” a spokesperson for Reuters said.

NBC News 的決策團隊仰賴統計模型和現場報導，作出獨立的選戰勝負判定。ABC News 和 CNN 的決策團隊也會作出自己的選戰預測。NBC News' decision desk relies on statistical models and on-the-ground reporting to make its independent race calls. Decision desks at ABC News and CNN will also make their own race projections.

福斯的決策團隊將在所有全州性選戰中自行作出勝負判定，也會判定眾議院控制權和參議院控制權歸屬。它使用美聯社計票，並套用自家分析。Fox's decision desk will be making its own calls in all statewide races as well as the calls for control of the House and control of the Senate. It uses the AP vote count and applies its own analysis.

MS NOW 在脫離 NBCUniversal 有線電視組合後首次報導期中選舉，將仰賴美聯社的勝負判定，以及其選舉團隊的審查。MS NOW, covering its first midterms since separating from NBCUniversal's cable portfolio, will rely on the AP's race calls and a review by its elections team.

《紐約時報》（The New York Times）在多數選戰中仰賴美聯社的勝負判定，但會使用選區投票所層級資料和其 Needle 模型，對競爭激烈的選戰進行獨立審查。它可能早於或晚於美聯社作出勝負判定。The New York Times relies on AP calls for most contests but independently reviews competitive races using precinct-level data and its Needle model. It may make a call before or after the AP.

彭博（Bloomberg）不自行作出選戰勝負判定。對於選舉結果，它使用既有第三方來源。Bloomberg does not make its own race calls. For election results, it uses established third-party sources.

《華盛頓郵報》（The Washington Post）未回應有關其將如何判定選戰勝負的採訪請求。The Washington Post did not respond to requests for comment on how it will call races.

（賈斯普里特・辛格於班加羅爾報導；艾德蒙・李、麥可・利爾蒙斯與迪帕・巴賓頓編輯）(Reporting by Jaspreet Singh in Bengaluru. Editing by Edmund Lee, Michael Learmonth and Deepa Babington)