民主黨若勝選將改變國會貿易辯論，但不足以撤回美國關稅

作者：大衛・勞德By David Lawder

華盛頓，11月1日（路透社）——貿易專家和國會助理表示，若民主黨週二贏得國會控制權，總統唐納・川普的貿易議程將面臨新的阻力來源；明年很可能出現一連串監督聽證會，以及象徵性的撤回關稅表決，但川普推動更多關稅行動的熱情仍不會因此受挫。WASHINGTON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's trade agenda will face a new source of friction if Democrats win control of Congress on Tuesday, with a cascade of oversight hearings and symbolic tariff rollback votes likely next year, but Trump will remain undeterred in his zeal for more tariff actions, trade experts and congressional aides say.

民主黨亟欲通過立法，廢止川普多項關稅及其所依據的較古老法規，但該黨即使有所斬獲，也將面對川普否決權的現實。Democrats are eager to pass legislation to negate many of Trump's tariffs and the more archaic statutes backing them, but any gains by the party will run into the reality of Trump's veto power.

參議院財政委員會民主黨首席議員榮・懷登表示：「最明顯的優先事項之一，就是廢除川普對加拿大的關稅；這些關稅正在推高物價，並傷害邊境兩側的社區。」參議院財政委員會負責稅務與貿易議題。"One of the most obvious priorities would be repealing Trump’s tariffs on Canada, which are raising prices and harming communities on both sides of the border," said Senator Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the tax- and trade-focused Senate Finance Committee.

民主黨必須在美國眾議院和美國參議院各淨增4席，才能推翻共和黨目前分別以218席對214席、53席對47席掌握的微弱多數。民調看好民主黨贏得眾議院，而參議院選情仍難以預測，使民主黨距離足以推翻總統否決的三分之二多數仍相當遙遠。Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the US House of Representatives and the US Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities. Opinion polls favor Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains too close to call, leaving Democrats far short of a veto-proof two-thirds majority.

與此同時，川普政府正擬定計畫，更倚重包括貿易在內的行政行動，而不必取得國會批准。Meanwhile, the Trump administration is developing plans to rely more heavily on executive actions, including on trade, without the need for congressional approval.

若民主黨至少贏得一院控制權，便可能針對長期被擱置的貿易法案進行象徵性表決，例如參議員查克・舒默提出的《終結川普關稅稅法案》。該法案將廢除支撐對加拿大商品懲罰性關稅的法條，也就是《1930年關稅法》第338條；同時也將廢除川普用於臨時性10%全球關稅的法條，即《1974年貿易法》第122條。If they win at least one chamber, Democrats could stage symbolic votes on long-sidelined trade bills such as Senator Chuck Schumer's "End Trump's Tariff Tax Act," which would scrap the statute backing the punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, along with the statute used for Trump's temporary 10% global tariffs, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

這項法案有包括懷登在內的28名共同提案人，也要求退還所有依據這些古老貿易法規徵收的關稅。The bill, with 28 co-sponsors including Wyden, also calls for refunding all duties collected under the archaic trade laws.

華盛頓智庫戰略暨國際研究中心非常駐顧問威廉・萊因施表示：「民主黨會嘗試很多做法。只是我認為，不會有任何事情真正走到終點，因為在任何情境下，兩黨都不會擁有足以推翻否決的多數。」"Democrats are going to try a lot of things. I just don't think anything's going to get across the finish line because neither party will have a veto-proof majority in any scenario," said William Reinsch, non-resident adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

監督聽證會OVERSIGHT HEARINGS

但萊因施和其他貿易專家表示，若民主黨掌握貿易委員會主席槌，將獲得一個平台，能針對川普貿易政策持續召開監督聽證會並展開調查。But gaining control of trade committee gavels would give Democrats a platform to launch a steady stream of oversight hearings and investigations into Trump's trade policies, Reinsch and other trade experts said.

主要監督目標將包括揭開關稅豁免不透明決策程序的面紗，這些豁免讓特定企業受惠；同時也將檢視關稅如何衝擊小企業，以及川普政府如何分配日本、南韓和其他貿易夥伴在近期貿易協議中承諾的數千億美元投資資金。Key oversight targets would include shedding light on the opaque process for determining tariff exemptions that benefit specific companies, how tariffs are impacting small businesses, and how the Trump administration is doling out hundreds of billions of dollars in investment funds pledged by Japan, South Korea and other trading partners in recent trade deals.

民主黨若採取對抗性的監督議程，將標誌著共和黨對川普關稅大致放任不管的做法出現轉變。儘管包括緬因州參議員蘇珊・柯林斯在內的一些選情艱困的共和黨現任議員近期提出反彈，共和黨這種做法已持續兩年。A confrontational oversight agenda from Democrats would mark a shift from Republicans' largely hands-off approach to Trump's tariffs, which has persisted for two years despite recent pushback from some struggling Republican incumbents, including Senator Susan Collins of Maine.

美國貿易代表署前總法律顧問、參議院財政委員會民主黨前貿易顧問葛蕾塔・派許表示，再加上民主黨安排的一些象徵性撤回關稅表決，這將開始改變貿易辯論的方向，進而影響2028年選舉週期。Coupled with some symbolic tariff rollback votes staged by Democrats, this will start to shift the trade debate to influence the 2028 election cycle, said Greta Peisch, a former general counsel at the US Trade Representative's office and a former trade counsel to Senate Finance Committee Democrats.

現任華盛頓威利瑞恩律師事務所貿易合夥人的派許表示，即使民主黨無法一開始就湊足票數通過改革貿易權限的法案，這項努力仍可能「形成總統大選提案的基礎」。Even if Democrats can't muster the votes to pass a bill to reform trade authorities right out of the gate, the effort could "form the basis of a proposal for the presidential elections," said Peisch, now a trade partner at Wiley Rein in Washington.

派許補充說：「我認為，這其實是民主黨以及整個國會開始思考未來兩到四年是否以及如何制定貿易立法和改革的開端。」"I think it's really the beginning of how Democrats, and Congress as a whole, think about whether and how to enact trade legislation and reforms in the next two to four years, really," Peisch added.

不會動搖NO WAVERING

國會山莊傳出的雜音增加，不太可能阻止川普在任期最後兩年繼續推動更多關稅，包括來自一項即將展開、針對16個主要貿易夥伴工業產能過剩的調查；即便他也會核准豁免或延後部分關稅。The increased noise from Capitol Hill is unlikely to deter Trump from pursuing more tariffs over his final two years in office, including from a forthcoming investigation into excess industrial capacity in 16 major trading partners, even as he grants exemptions or delays some duties.

白宮發言人馬修・米德爾頓表示，川普將繼續推動以關稅為核心的貿易議程，目標是保護美國勞工、農民和企業，避免他們被過去的貿易協議「剝削」。Trump will continue to pursue his tariff-driven trade agenda aimed at protecting American workers, farmers and businesses from being "ripped off" by past trade deals, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said.

米德爾頓在電郵聲明中表示：「無論是在貿易談判中，或是透過減稅與鬆綁管制的經濟議程，川普總統都絕不會動搖美國優先的立場。這項議程已經促成近20項公平貿易協議和數兆美元製造業投資，未來還會為一般美國民眾帶來更多進展、就業和機會。」"President Trump will never waver from putting America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation," Middleton said in an emailed statement. "That agenda has already secured almost 20 fair trade deals and trillions in manufacturing investments, with even more progress, jobs, and opportunities ahead for everyday Americans."

聖路易華盛頓大學兼任教授、國際仲裁法律專家米洛斯・伊夫科維奇表示，貿易夥伴也理解川普維持關稅的決心，並意識到國會不會有能力撤除這些關稅。Trading partners also understand Trump's commitment to keeping tariffs in place, and realize that Congress will not be in a position to remove them, said Milos Ivkovic, an international arbitration law expert and adjunct professor at Washington University in St. Louis.

他表示，對印度、越南或加拿大等尚未達成貿易協議的國家而言，對選舉採取觀望態度並不會帶來好處。A wait-and-see approach to the vote will not benefit trade deal holdouts such as India, Vietnam or Canada, he said.

伊夫科維奇表示：「所有那些以為期中選舉會產生這樣的影響，讓美國政府和川普總統改變外交政策的國家，都是錯的。」他補充說，推遲與川普政府進行貿易討論的國家，「其實是在危及自己的談判」。"For all of those countries who think that midterms will have such an effect that the United States government and President Trump will change foreign policy, they're mistaken," Ivkovic said. Countries that are holding off on trade discussions with the Trump administration "are actually jeopardizing their negotiations," he added.

（大衛・勞德報導；安德烈亞・里奇編輯）(Reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Andrea Ricci )