分析：川普對伊朗的威脅重燃海灣國家對一場非其所願戰爭的憂慮

作者：薩米亞・納庫勒、亞歷山大・康威爾和提穆爾・阿扎里By Samia Nakhoul, Alexander Cornwell and Timour Azhari

麥納瑪，11月2日（路透社）—— 美國總統川普威脅再次攻擊伊朗，使美國的海灣盟友面臨嚴峻前景：又一場由華府決定的戰爭，而美國為保護它們而建的基地，反而可能使它們成為伊朗猛烈報復的目標。MANAMA, Nov 2 (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump’s threat to strike Iran again confronts America’s Gulf allies with a stark prospect: another war decided in Washington in which the US bases built to protect them could instead make them targets for harsh Iranian reprisal.

上一輪戰鬥中，伊朗飛彈擊中美軍基地和海灣能源設施，暴露出華府數十年安全架構核心的脆弱性。美國遍布區域的龐大部署並未嚇阻德黑蘭，反而給了伊朗固定目標，也讓接納這些基地的海灣國家成為伊朗可利用的施壓點。Iranian missiles that struck US military bases and Gulf energy facilities in the last round of fighting exposed a vulnerability at the heart of Washington’s decades-old security architecture. Rather than deterring Tehran, America’s sprawling regional footprint gave Iran fixed targets and the Gulf states hosting them pressure points it can exploit.

上週末在巴林舉行的年度「麥納瑪對話」安全會議上，部長、決策人士和安全官員討論時，這一前景成為主軸。各國政府正在評估，另一輪戰爭對美軍以及接納美軍的國家可能意味著什麼。That prospect dominated discussions among ministers, policymakers and security officials at the annual Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain over the weekend, as governments weighed what another round of war could mean for US forces and the countries that host them.

隨著川普再度威脅採取軍事行動，緊迫感愈發升高。他說，他可能在週二期中選舉後發動「另一場小規模『史詩怒火行動』」，指的是2月28日展開的美以行動。4名歐洲官員表示，美國已在區域內集結足夠兵力與資產，可在短時間內攻擊伊朗，最早可能就在本週。The urgency has grown as Trump again threatened military action, saying he could launch “another little Operation Epic Fury” after Tuesday’s midterm elections, referring to the US-Israeli operation that began on Feb 28. Four European officials said the US had amassed enough forces and assets in the region to attack Iran at short notice, possibly as soon as this week.

一名與海灣領導人關係密切的第5名歐洲官員說：「戰爭就要來了。沒有人支持這場戰爭。」"War is coming," said a fifth European official who has close contact with Gulf leaders. "Nobody is in favour of this war."

埃及外交部長巴德爾・阿卜杜勒阿提在麥納瑪會議上表示，另一輪戰鬥會比上一輪更危險、更具破壞性：「這不會帶來任何結果。」Egypt's Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told the Manama conference another round of fighting would be more dangerous and destructive than the last: “It will lead to nowhere.”

從盾牌變成目標FROM SHIELD TO TARGET

其中2名歐洲官員告訴路透社，任何美國攻擊很可能鎖定伊朗核設施，包括研發設施。可能目標包括「十字鎬山」（Pickaxe Mountain）這處與伊朗核計畫相關的地點；不過這些官員說，軍事行動大概只能削弱德黑蘭的能力，而非摧毀這些能力。Two of the European officials told Reuters any US attack would likely target Iranian nuclear sites, including research and development facilities. Among likely locations is Pickaxe Mountain, a site linked to Iran's nuclear program, although the officials said military action would probably be able only to weaken Tehran's capabilities rather than destroy them.

伊朗官員告訴路透社，德黑蘭已擬定詳細目標清單，以報復另一次美以攻擊；目標包括海底通訊電纜和軍事基地，其中一些是祕密基地。Iranian officials have told Reuters that Tehran has drawn up detailed target lists in retaliation for another US-Israeli attack, including undersea communications cables and military bases, some covert.

這項策略可能使戰爭代價擴大到戰場之外，能源基礎設施、海水淡化廠、通訊網路，以及海灣城市中高度醒目的目標都面臨風險。The strategy could widen the cost of war beyond the battlefield, with energy infrastructure, desalination plants, communications networks and highly visible targets in Gulf cities at risk.

伊朗在軍事上無法與美國和以色列匹敵。但3名與會代表表示，伊朗並不需要這麼做。其策略日益轉向消耗戰：讓美軍防禦與維持部署的成本變高，把接納美軍的海灣國家變成施壓點，並把任何美國收縮行動作為華府無法保護夥伴的證據來運用。Iran cannot match the United States and Israel militarily. But it does not need to, three delegates said. Its strategy is increasingly one of attrition: make US forces expensive to defend and sustain, turn the Gulf states hosting them into pressure points, and leverage any American retrenchment as evidence that Washington cannot protect its partners.

主辦麥納瑪會議的國際戰略研究所（The International Institute for Strategic Studies）區域安全主任埃米爾・霍卡耶姆說：「伊朗人真正關心的是美軍撤出這個地區。」"What the Iranians really care about is the departure of US forces from the region," said Emile Hokayem, director of regional security at The International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organises the Manama conference.

他告訴路透社，德黑蘭給海灣強權的訊息主要是：「你們花了40年投資美國；40年後，那些基地沒有保護你們，反而暴露了你們。」Tehran's message to Gulf powers, he told Reuters, is mainly: "You spent four decades investing in the US and after 40 years, those bases didn't protect you, they exposed you."

這種說法在巴林最具力道。巴林是美國第五艦隊總部所在地，數十年來一直是美國在區域軍事力量的支點。在朱費爾基地附近，攻擊痕跡距離住宅區數公尺處仍清晰可見：一處倉庫的波紋鐵皮屋頂和正面遭砲彈擊中後被撕開並燒焦，而一座面向伊朗的雷達則少了三分之一的碟面。Nowhere is that argument more potent than Bahrain, headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and for decades an anchor of American military power in the region. Near its base in Juffair, the scars of strikes were still visible metres from residential areas: the corrugated iron roof and front of a warehouse were torn open and charred where projectiles had struck, while a radar facing Iran was missing a third of its dish.

這些損害迫使華府面對一個遠超巴林的問題：這套原本為投射美國力量而建、而非承受持續飛彈與無人機攻擊的軍事部署，究竟該重建、強化，還是撤離。The damage has forced Washington to confront a question far beyond Bahrain: whether to rebuild, harden or withdraw a military footprint built to project US power, not withstand sustained missile and drone attacks.

海灣國家付出代價THE GULF PAYS THE PRICE

對巴林而言，對伊朗威脅的憂慮疊加在更早以前的宗派和歷史斷層上。2011年，主要由什葉派社群領導的大規模抗議挑戰遜尼派阿勒哈利法王室。巴林統治者鎮壓了這場反抗，並指控伊朗操弄動亂；德黑蘭否認這項指控。For Bahrain, fears of Iranian threats are layered onto an older sectarian and historical faultline. In 2011, mass protests led largely by the Shi’ite community challenged the Sunni Al Khalifa monarchy. Bahrain's rulers crushed the revolt and accused Iran of manipulating the unrest, a charge Tehran denied.

自最新戰爭爆發以來，一些伊朗強硬派再度把巴林稱為伊朗的「第14省」，儘管德黑蘭已在1970年放棄其領土主張。在這段歷史背景下，對美國設施的攻擊威脅到的不只是美國在巴林的軍事存在，也威脅到接納這些設施的巴林王國。Since the latest war began, some Iranian hardliners have again invoked Bahrain as Iran’s “14th province”, despite Tehran abandoning its territorial claim in 1970. Against that history, strikes on US facilities threaten not only America’s military presence in Bahrain but the kingdom hosting it.

一名海灣官員告訴路透社：「我們基本上是在看最壞的情況。」他預期美國很快會攻擊伊朗，導致伊朗報復海灣各地的民用基礎設施。"We're basically looking at the worst-case scenario," a Gulf official told Reuters, anticipating that the US would soon strike Iran, leading to Iranian retaliation against civilian infrastructure across the Gulf.

另一名海灣官員說，衝突是否恢復以及強度如何，「到頭來，只有一個人決定」。這番話指的是川普，也凸顯海灣國家對一場由它們承受後果的衝突，形塑其走向的能力有限。Another Gulf official said that “in the end, only one person decides” whether conflict resumes and how intense it becomes, a reference to Trump that underscored the Gulf states’ limited power to shape a conflict whose consequences they would bear.

白宮一名官員在回應本文詢問時表示，「所有選項」仍可使用，伊朗面臨「簡單的路或艱難的路」，並補充說：「川普總統握有所有籌碼。」In response to questions for this article, a White House official said “all options” remained available and Iran faced “the easy way or the hard way,” adding: “President Trump holds all the cards.”

霍卡耶姆補充說：「伊朗的戰役是要耗盡美國人，不是要獲勝。他們可以迫使你隨著時間投入更多精力、更多武器、更多金錢。」“The Iranian campaign is to exhaust the Americans. It's not to win,” Hokayem added. “They can force you to spend more energy, more weapons, more money over time.”

力圖避免另一場戰爭RACING TO AVERT ANOTHER WAR

這項憂慮正推動海灣國家走向外交途徑。沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦高階官員上月在德黑蘭與伊朗官員會談；沙烏地阿拉伯表示，這項努力旨在「防止軍事升級再度發生」。卡達官員週末也在德黑蘭和杜哈舉行會議，以避免戰爭重啟。That concern is pushing Gulf states towards diplomacy. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran last month, with Saudi Arabia saying the effort was intended to “prevent the return of military escalation.” Qatari officials also held meetings in Tehran and Doha over the weekend to avert renewed war.

阿拉伯聯合大公國高階官員安瓦爾・加爾加什在麥納瑪會議上說：「我們希望能有外交突破。我們真的不希望看到區域內再出現另一輪對抗。」"We are hoping that there is a diplomatic breakthrough. We don't really want to see another round of confrontation in the region," United Arab Emirates senior official Anwar Gargash told the Manama conference.

不過他說，阿聯「已為最壞情況做好準備」。The UAE was, however, "braced for the worst," he said.

那名與海灣領導人關係密切的歐洲官員說，外界對外交能否彌合華府與德黑蘭之間的分歧深感悲觀；戰爭再起被視為時間問題，而不是會不會發生的問題。The European official close to Gulf leaders said there was deep pessimism about whether diplomacy can bridge the Washington-Tehran divide, with renewed war seen as a matter of when, not if.

問題不再是華府是否仍致力於海灣安全，而是當支撐這項承諾的基礎設施本身就是目標時，美國安全保證究竟意味著什麼。The question is no longer whether Washington remains committed to the Gulf, but what a US security guarantee means when the infrastructure underpinning it is itself a target.

這場較量可能正從誰能造成最大軍事損害，轉向誰能承受成本最久。對華府的海灣夥伴而言，它們擔心的是，另一輪戰爭可能讓它們承擔大部分代價。The contest may be shifting from who can inflict the greatest military damage to who can endure the costs longest. For Washington’s Gulf partners, the fear is that another round of war could leave them paying much of the price.

（亞歷山大・康威爾和提穆爾・阿扎里於麥納瑪、帕麗莎・哈菲茲於杜拜補充報導；薩米亞・納庫勒撰稿；威廉・麥克林編輯）(Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell and Timour Azhari in Manama and Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by William Maclean)