投資人推演國會控制權對支出與AI前景的影響

Saqib Iqbal Ahmed與Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss報導By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

紐約，11月2日（路透）——美國期中選舉通常不會在市場掀起大波瀾。不過，11月3日選戰的結果可能加深投資人對AI支出與債務上限談判的擔憂；如果民主黨加強審視企業，結果也可能對美國企業界產生影響。NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - US midterm elections don't typically produce market fireworks. Yet the results of November 3's contests could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations, and they may have implications for Corporate America if Democrats put companies under the microscope.

自川普2025年重返白宮、共和黨全面掌控國會以來，標普500指數已上漲約27%，受惠於AI領域龐大的資本支出以及強勁的獲利成長。不過，美國公債殖利率也大幅走高，尤其是在美國與以色列2月攻擊伊朗之後，引發能源價格飆升，如今正滲透到美國經濟的其他領域。Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025 with full Republican control of Congress, the S&P 500 has gained about 27%, benefiting from vast capital spending on AI and strong earnings growth. However, Treasury yields are also substantially higher, particularly after the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, setting off a surge in energy prices that is now seeping into other parts of the US economy.

投資人正試圖評估選舉結果將如何形塑市場前景。目前預測顯示，民主黨將贏得眾議院，參議院控制權則較不明朗。Investors are trying to gauge how the election results will shape the market outlook. Current forecasts point to Democrats winning the House, with control of the Senate less clear.

Ned Davis Research表示，自1930年以來，總統所屬政黨在8個期中選舉週期失去眾議院控制權，其中5次標普500指數在當年剩餘時間上漲。從選舉日到年底的漲幅中位數為1.4%，略低於所有期中選舉後年度同期的1.9%。Since 1930, there have been eight midterm cycles when the president's party lost control of the House, and the S&P 500 rose for the remainder of the year five times, Ned Davis Research said. It posted a median gain of 1.4% from Election Day through year-end, slightly less than the 1.9% posted across all post-Election Day midterm years.

如果民主黨拿下兩院，投資人預期AI監督將趨嚴，可能拖累市場。民主黨將有能力調查美國企業界，同時試圖放慢放寬管制的步調，這可能加劇市場波動。If Democrats win both chambers, investors expect tougher oversight of AI, which could weigh on markets. Democrats would have the ability to investigate Corporate America while trying to slow deregulation, which could add to market volatility.

如果民主黨贏得眾議院，但共和黨保住參議院，對美國財政情勢的影響將好壞參半。投資人表示，國會分裂會提高政府關門與債務上限談判走向攤牌的風險。If Democrats win the House but Republicans keep the Senate, the implications for the US fiscal situation would be mixed. Investors say a divided Congress raises the risk of government shutdowns and debt-limit brinkmanship.

這可能對美國主權評等增添既有壓力；投資人已對龐大赤字與上升的利息成本感到擔憂。一些策略師警告，國防支出與醫療補貼之間的取捨，可能使日後赤字擴大。That could add to existing pressure on the US sovereign rating, where investors are already concerned about large deficits and rising interest costs. Some strategists warn that spending trade-offs on defense and subsidies for healthcare could widen deficits down the line.

如果市場認為這類政策角力可能拖累成長，美元可能會被拉低。The dollar could be dragged lower if the market believes that such policy wrangling may weigh on growth.

若共和黨全面勝選，投資人預期白宮可能推動更多稅改或增加國防支出，使原本已龐大的赤字惡化。不過，新的AI監管與國會調查風險將會偏低。In a Republican sweep, investors expect the White House could pursue more tax reform or boost defense spending, worsening an already large deficit. The risk of new AI regulation and congressional probes would, however, be low.

國會分裂或民主黨全面勝選SPLIT CONGRESS OR DEMOCRATIC SWEEP

民主黨若表現強勁，最大影響可能落在AI交易上，因為調查可能助長公眾對資料中心日益升高的反對聲浪。The biggest effect of a strong Democratic showing could be on the AI trade, where investigations could add momentum to growing public opposition to data centers.

Raymond James華府政策分析師艾德・米爾斯（Ed Mills）在報告中表示，調查可能加速推動要求前沿AI模型採用安全標準、獨立評估與事故通報，並讓資料中心開發商承擔更多責任的努力。Probes could speed up efforts to require safety standards for frontier AI models, independent evaluations and incident reporting, and to hold data center developers more accountable, Raymond James Washington policy analyst Ed Mills said in a note.

投資人押注AI擴張前景樂觀，而任何對其快速成長的疑慮都會造成市場劇烈波動。根據路透／益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）民調，只有三分之一美國人贊成資料中心快速興建。Investors have banked on an optimistic outlook for AI expansion, and any doubt about its rapid growth causes sharp market moves. Just one in three Americans approve of the fast pace of data-center construction, according to a ‌Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll.

民主黨若贏得國會一院或兩院，將讓該黨掌握強力工具，可調查各產業與監管機構。路透近日報導，民主黨已準備調查川普及其家族與加密貨幣和預測市場產業的關係。A Democratic win in one or both chambers of Congress would give the party powerful tools to probe industries and regulators. Democrats are already preparing to investigate Trump's and his family's ties to the crypto and prediction market industries, Reuters recently reported.

Ebury市場分析師迪亞哥・巴紐沃（Diego Barnuevo）表示，民主黨掌控的國會與白宮之間的談判，可能僅限於預算與債務上限等必須通過的事項；債務上限預計將在2027年成為焦點。Negotiations between a Democratic-held Congress and the White House would likely be confined to must-pass items such as the budget and the debt ceiling, which is expected to come to the fore in 2027, said Diego Barnuevo, market analyst at Ebury.

巴紐沃表示：「我們認為，民主黨全面勝選對財政前景將是中性至略為正面。」"We think that a Democratic sweep would be neutral to mildly positive for the fiscal outlook," said Barnuevo.

然而，其他人懷疑民主黨是否會明顯更為節制，也同樣悲觀看待任何政治結果能否實質改善日益惡化的財政圖像。Others, however, are skeptical that Democrats would be significantly more restrained, and are similarly pessimistic that any political outcome will materially improve the deteriorating fiscal picture.

Ned Davis美國首席策略師艾德・克利索德（Ed Clissold）表示，民主黨奪下眾議院可能會稍微抑制美股年底漲勢，但整體而言，這並未阻止股市上漲。Ned Davis chief US strategist Ed Clissold said a House takeover by Democrats could modestly temper the US equity market's year-end rally, but in general it has not prevented stocks from advancing.

克利索德表示：「傳統看法是，僵局對（股市）有利。」他並補充，股票在民主黨總統任內的表現優於共和黨總統任內。"Conventional wisdom is that gridlock is good (for stocks)," said Clissold, adding stocks have performed better under Democratic presidents than Republicans.

共和黨全面勝選REPUBLICAN SWEEP

共和黨全面勝選可能對美國公債帶來更戲劇性的影響，因為這將延續可能進一步擴大赤字的政策。A Republican sweep could have more dramatic implications for Treasuries, as it would continue policy that could further expand the deficit.

Numera Analytics首席經濟學家暨策略師華金・克里茨・拉拉（Joaquín Kritz Lara）表示：「如果發生這種情況，將驗證川普和（美國財政部長史考特・）貝森特在財政面推動的許多政策議程。」"If that were to happen, it would validate a lot of the policy agenda that Trump and (US Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent have undergone on the fiscal side," said Joaquín Kritz Lara, chief economist and strategist at Numera Analytics.

他表示，屆時川普政府可能傾向推動更多稅改，或大幅擴張國防預算，可能使美國財政狀況惡化。The Trump administration might then lean toward more tax reform or a significant expansion of the defense budget, potentially worsening the US fiscal position, he said.

對美元而言，較高的美國公債殖利率起初可能有所助益。For the dollar, higher Treasury yields might help initially.

支付公司Corpay駐多倫多首席市場策略師卡爾・沙莫塔（Karl Schamotta）表示：「共和黨若乾淨保住控制權，起初可能透過殖利率管道支撐美元，但也會被解讀為為更多赤字融資政策、對制度的持續施壓以及進一步海外冒險行動開綠燈——這些因素可能迫使投資人在較長時間範圍內提高避險比率。」"A clean Republican hold might initially support the dollar through the yield channel, but would also be read as a green light for more deficit-financed policy, continued pressure on institutions, and further foreign adventurism — factors that could force investors to raise hedge ratios over longer time frames," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist with payments company Corpay in Toronto, said.

共和黨若表現強勁，將減輕外界對AI企業遭調查的疑慮。A strong Republican showing would ease concerns over investigations into AI companies.

摩根大通策略師在報告中表示：「如果共和黨維持國會控制權，透過政策延續性、潛在財政擴張、放寬管制以及更快速的聯邦許可審批，這很可能為AI／基礎建設擴建提供最具支持性的增量聯邦政策環境。」"If Republicans maintain control of Congress, that would likely provide the most supportive incremental federal policy backdrop for the AI/Infrastructure buildout through policy continuity, potential fiscal expansion, deregulation and faster federal permitting," JPMorgan strategists said in a note.

（Saqib Iqbal Ahmed與Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss報導；Megan Davies與David Gaffen編輯）(Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; editing by Megan Davies and David Gaffen)