蘋果新任執行長特納斯將迎來首場財報考驗，記憶體成本飆升

作者：阿迪蒂亞・索尼（Aditya Soni）與史蒂芬・內利斯（Stephen Nellis）By Aditya Soni and Stephen Nellis

11月2日（路透）—— 約翰・特納斯（John Ternus）週一將以蘋果（Apple）執行長身分主持他的首場財報電話會議。投資人將關注該公司的財測，以判斷一連串新產品是否有助於抵銷記憶體晶片成本上升。Nov 2 (Reuters) - John Ternus will host his first earnings call as Apple's CEO on Monday, with investors looking to the company's forecast to determine whether a blitz of new products can help offset rising costs for memory chips.

特納斯9月從提姆・庫克（Tim Cook）手中接棒以來，已主導推出蘋果首款摺疊手機、智慧家庭中樞，以及蘋果首批觸控螢幕筆電。這些產品全都在該公司目前的會計年度第一季開始出貨，而此時正值庫克所稱記憶體成本上升的「百年一遇洪水」。Ternus, who took the reins from Tim Cook in September, has overseen the introduction of Apple's first foldable phone, smart home hub and Apple's first touch-screen laptops. All of those products began shipping during the company's current fiscal first quarter, amid what Cook had called a "100-year flood" of rising memory costs.

蘋果將面臨三大關鍵議題的檢視：至關重要的假期購物季所在季度展望、特納斯對 AI 與改版 Siri 的說法，以及記憶體晶片成本上升。分析師預期，記憶體成本攀升將拖累蘋果季度獲利成長，降至6季以來最弱。Apple will face scrutiny over three key issues: its crucial holiday-quarter outlook, Ternus' remarks on AI and the revamped Siri, and rising memory-chip costs that analysts expect to drag quarterly profit growth to its weakest in six quarters.

蘋果一直試圖讓自家 AI 產品定位有別於競爭對手，例如 Meta Platforms 的 Muse 代理程式；Muse 近幾週在 App Store 排名中迅速竄紅。Apple has been trying to position its AI offerings differently than rivals such as Meta Platforms' Muse agent, which took App Store rankings by storm in recent weeks.

OpenAI 等競爭對手也正在開發裝置，目標是取代 iPhone 成為人們生活中的核心裝置；蘋果正就涉嫌竊取商業機密一事控告 OpenAI。蘋果如何擁抱 AI，也可能對其服務業務的未來產生重大影響；該業務在多年快速擴張後成長放緩，已讓投資人感到擔憂。Rivals such as OpenAI, which Apple is suing over alleged trade-secret theft, are also developing devices aimed at displacing the iPhone as the central device in people's lives. How Apple embraces AI could also have large implications for the future of its services business, whose slowing growth has worried investors after years of rapid expansion.

持有蘋果股票的 Synovus Trust 投資組合經理丹・摩根（Dan Morgan）表示：「近期代理式創新的發展速度，遠遠超過我們使用 Siri AI 的經驗；但蘋果已承認，Siri AI……更著重於信任／隱私。」"Recent agentic innovation far outpaces our experience with Siri AI, but Apple has acknowledged that Siri AI … is far more focused on trust/privacy," said Dan Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, which owns Apple shares.

蘋果將自家 AI 系統行銷給「一般人」，而不是矽谷圈內人士；後者是 OpenAI 等公司前沿 AI 模型的重度使用者。Apple is marketing Apple's AI systems toward "everyday people" rather than Silicon Valley insiders, who are big users of frontier AI models from the likes of OpenAI.

摩根補充說，投資人想知道蘋果能否透過 App Store 發行第三方 AI 代理程式，並從這些代理程式創造的業務中抽成獲利。Morgan added that investors want to know whether Apple could profit by distributing third-party AI agents through its App Store and taking a cut of the business they generate.

股價表現勝出SHARES OUTPERFORM

就目前而言，蘋果不願加入大規模 AI 支出競賽，反而對它有利。蘋果股價今年已上漲約27%，表現優於微軟（Microsoft）、Alphabet、Meta 與亞馬遜（Amazon）等科技巨頭，因投資人尋求避開外界對 AI 基礎設施建置成本日益升高的擔憂。For now, Apple's reluctance to join the massive AI spending race has worked in its favor. Its shares have risen about 27% this year, outperforming tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon as investors seek shelter from mounting concerns over the cost of building AI infrastructure.

根據 LSEG 資料，分析師預期蘋果將公布7月至9月期間營收成長近11%，達1,133.9億美元；該期間為蘋果會計年度第四季。淨利預期成長約6%，至290.4億美元。Analysts expect Apple to report a nearly 11% rise in revenue to $113.39 billion for the July-September period, the company's fiscal fourth quarter, according to LSEG data. Net profit is expected to rise about 6% to $29.04 billion.

蘋果服務業務預料將成長近10%，至315.6億美元，為3年多來最慢增速。Apple's services business is expected to grow almost 10% to $31.56 billion, its slowest pace in more than three years.

iPhone 銷售額預計將攀升約15%，至565.4億美元，較前3個月約22%的增速放緩。這份業績只會納入新款 iPhone 18 Pro 機型9天的銷售表現；至於該公司首款摺疊手機 iPhone Duo 則於10月23日上市，將有利於假期購物季所在季度。IPhone sales are projected to climb about 15% to $56.54 billion, slowing from growth of about 22% in the previous three months. The results will capture just nine days of sales of the new iPhone 18 Pro models, while the iPhone Duo, the firm's first foldable, came out on October 23, which will benefit the holiday quarter.

外界將仔細檢視有關 Duo 銷售情況的說法；這款裝置在美國起價1,999美元，部分買家回報內側螢幕中央摺痕處出現裂痕與線條，促使蘋果提供更換。Duo 的線上訂單已在數分鐘內售罄。Remarks on how the Duo is selling will be scrutinized after some buyers of the device that starts at $1,999 in the US have reported cracks and lines along the inner display's central fold, prompting Apple to offer replacements. Duo's online orders had sold out within minutes.

IDC 分析師納比拉・波帕爾（Nabila Popal）表示，她預期即使出現螢幕問題，Duo 需求仍將持續超過供給。她說，考驗在於供應依然吃緊之際，蘋果能多快更換受影響裝置。IDC analyst Nabila Popal said she expects demand for the Duo to continue exceeding supply despite the screen problems. The test will be how quickly Apple can replace affected devices while supplies remain tight, she said.

美國銀行（Bank of America）估計，Duo 買家平均需等待79天才能交貨，出貨時間將延伸至1月。Bank of America estimates Duo buyers face average delivery waits of 79 days, with shipments stretching into January.

（班加羅爾阿迪蒂亞・索尼、舊金山史蒂芬・內利斯報導；Sayantani Ghosh 編輯）(Reporting by Aditya Soni in Bengaluru and Stephen Nellis in San Francisco; Editing by Sayantani Ghosh)