小摩估台積電拚 2028 年上半年量產 1.4 奈米，蘋果 A22 Pro 有望率先採用
美系外資摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在最新報告指出，台積電目標2028 年上半年量產次世代A14 製程，並加快商業化進程，預計2028 年下半年開始貢獻營收。由於製程推進速度加快，也提高蘋果iPhone 等旗艦手機2028 年下半年採用A14 製程晶片的可能性。
蘋果A 系列晶片過往都會搭載台積電最新製程，但這次是受台積電加速迭代所推動。摩根大通預期，先進製程晶圓供應緊張的情況將持續至2027 至2028 年，促使台積電將加速擴產計畫延續至2028 年。隨著N3、N2 及A14 製程產能持續擴大，市場共識預估台積電2027 會計年度營收成長率將接近40%。
雖然初期N2 製程的稀釋效應將使台積電毛利率在2027 年維持於60% 以上，但預計2027 年上半年調漲晶圓價格，加上跨廠營運效率提升，將抵銷相關影響。隨著N2 製程的毛利率稀釋效應在2027 年底或2028 年初逐漸減輕，台積電毛利率有望朝70% 邁進。
對此，摩根大通維持台積電「加碼」、目標價3,300 元，以反映AI 業務營收持續成長，以及台積電相較其他晶圓代工業者的製程領先優勢。
據悉，台積電計畫2027 年第三季展開試產，並將仰賴四座晶圓廠因應市場需求。外媒WCCFtech 指出，蘋果雖然已不再是台積電獲利最高的客戶，但也為該公司貢獻相當可觀的營收。
TSMC ($TSM) is targeting 1H28 for mass production of its next-generation A14 node, accelerating commercialization to deliver initial revenue in 2H28, according to J.P. Morgan. This faster node execution increases the probability that flagship smartphones such as Apple's iPhones will adopt A14 silicon in 2H28. J.P. Morgan expects structural tightness in leading-edge wafer supply to persist throughout 2027-28, prompting TSMC to extend its accelerated capacity additions through 2028. Consensus revenue growth for FY27 is projected to approach 40% as capacity expands across N3, N2, and A14. While initial N2 dilution will hold gross margins in the mid-to-high 60% range through 2027, planned wafer price hikes in 1H27 alongside cross-fab operational efficiency should provide an offset. As N2 dilution becomes modest in late 2027 or early 2028, gross margins have a credible path to approach 70%. J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on TSMC with a June 2027 price target of NT$3,300, based on roughly 20x 12-month forward P/E, reflecting durable AI revenue growth and node leadership over foundry peers. Current power and data center availability in the US indicates no near-term constraint on AI chip demand. However, the rating and valuation face two explicit downside risks highlighted by J.P. Morgan: an active market debate regarding the eventual duration of the AI capex growth cycle, and potential negative spillover from sluggish PC or smartphone demand in 2H26. Investors should track whether customer indicators for leading-edge wafer allocation remain resilient if consumer hardware end-markets soften. #TSMC #Foundry Report date: 2026-10-15 · JPM
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報導稱，AI 熱潮對蘋果來說可能是把雙面刃，一方面迫使蘋果必須迭代至1.4 奈米；另一方面，也讓蘋果有機會在製程世代上取得領先優勢。
據估計，每片1.4 奈米晶圓的成本高達4.5 萬美元。面對DRAM 短缺及智慧型手機需求不如預期等挑戰，高通、聯發科等手機晶片業者的業務已承受壓力，未必願意承擔新一代製程的高昂成本，因此可能選擇延續採用2 奈米製程，暫緩升級至1.4 奈米，又或者是大幅提高最新製程的晶片售價。
（首圖來源：Flickr/MIKI Yoshihito CC BY 2.0）