紐西蘭「兩速經濟」讓執政國家黨面臨選舉難題

作者：露西・克雷默（Lucy Craymer）與阿拉斯代爾・帕爾（Alasdair Pal）By Lucy Craymer and Alasdair Pal

路透紐西蘭下哈特市11月2日電——對70歲的兼職公車司機莉茲・哈特利（Liz Hartley）而言，11月7日紐西蘭大選的選戰，歸根究柢就是日常生活開銷。LOWER HUTT, New Zealand, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The campaign for New Zealand's general election on November 7 comes down to the price of everyday life for 70-year-old Liz Hartley, a part-time bus driver.

「你得工作，才付得起額外開銷，也才能有一點享受，」哈特利說。當時她正在首都威靈頓東北方城市下哈特一處河畔市集的餐車前排隊，選舉志工則在人群中拜票。"You've got to work to pay for the extras and to have a few treats," said Hartley, queuing at a food truck as election volunteers worked the crowd at a riverside market in Lower Hutt, a city northeast of Wellington, the capital.

因此，哈特利說，她計劃在自己的哈特南選區進行策略性投票，目標是阻止現任國家黨議員克里斯・畢夏普（Chris Bishop）連任；畢夏普是政府中最資深的人物之一。As a result, Hartley said, she plans a tactical vote in her Hutt South constituency aimed at denying reelection for National Party incumbent Chris Bishop, one of the most senior figures in government.

3年前，城市選民支持國家黨憑藉降低通膨與政府債務的承諾勝選；如今，紐西蘭仍難以完全擺脫經濟衰退，不過國家黨表示，該黨已為未來成長奠定基礎。Three years after urban voters helped the National Party win election on promises to cut inflation and government debt, New Zealand is struggling to fully shake off a recession, though the party says it has laid the foundations for future growth.

在哈特南選區，畢夏普面對的是受生活成本危機重創的選民，以及首都支出削減造成承包商工作消失、商店與企業消費萎縮的局面。In Hutt South, Bishop faces voters battered by a cost of living crisis and expenditure cuts in the capital that eliminated jobs for contractors, and shrivelled spending at shops and businesses.

畢夏普告訴路透社，這個涵蓋威靈頓以東社區的選區選民，希望看到一項能「推動國家前進、帶動繁榮」的計畫。Voters in the constituency, which spans communities east of Wellington, want a plan to "move the country forward and drive prosperity," Bishop told Reuters.

他補充說：「我的感覺是，我們的經濟計畫正開始奏效，而我們需要更多時間把它貫徹到底。」"My sense is that our economic plan is beginning to work, and we need more time to see it through," he added.

紐西蘭正從多年經濟成長遲緩中走出，但落後的城市部門，對國家黨在3萬人以上城市保住選票構成挑戰；這些城市居住著全國550萬人口中的約65%。As New Zealand emerges from years of sluggish economic growth, its lagging urban sector presents a challenge for the National Party to retain votes in the cities of 30,000 or more that are home to about 65% of a population of 5.5 million.

2023年，最大城市奧克蘭傳統偏左的都會區從工黨轉向國家黨，幫助推動該黨勝選。A shift to National from Labour in traditional left-leaning urban areas in the largest city of Auckland helped propel the party to victory in 2023.

經濟困境ECONOMIC WOES

政治評論員格蘭特・鄧肯（Grant Duncan）表示，若不是多數選民籠罩在「經濟低迷」之中，國家黨重返執政會有容易得多的道路。If not for the "economic funk" engulfing most voters, the National Party would have a much easier route back to office, said political commentator Grant Duncan.

「國家黨上台時，帶著一種善於管理經濟與財政的名聲……但結果並非如此。」"National comes in with this reputation for being the great economic and fiscal managers … and it hasn't worked out."

他補充說，政府並非完全有錯，但總理克里斯多福・盧克森也在2023年大選前作出了一些他無法兌現的經濟承諾。The government was not entirely at fault, but Prime Minister Christopher Luxon also made economic promises ahead of the 2023 election that he could not keep, he added.

奇異銀行（Kiwibank）首席經濟學家賈羅德・克爾（Jarrod Kerr）表示，紐西蘭承受了「一波又一波又一波衝擊」，這意味著復甦的承諾被推遲了，New Zealand had endured "shock after shock after shock," said Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, which meant that the promise of a recovery has been postponed,

「生活成本危機對許多企業與家庭而言非常真實。」"The cost of living crisis is very real for many businesses and households."

但鄉村與城市地區的處境截然不同，觀光業與較高的農產品出口支撐前者，尤其是在南島；南島第2季零售支出較去年同期增加8.6%。But rural and urban areas have fared very differently, with tourism and higher agricultural exports supporting the former, especially on the South Island, where second-quarter retail spending was up 8.6% on the year.

然而，在人口較多的北島，奧克蘭和威靈頓等城市地區的消費支出落後，對應增幅較小，為5.8%。In urban locations such as Auckland and Wellington on the more populous North Island, however, consumer spending has lagged, with a smaller corresponding rise of 5.8%.

就業也反映出這種分歧，同一期間南島失業率下降0.6個百分點，北島則上升0.7個百分點。Jobs also reflect the divergence, with unemployment over the period falling 0.6 percentage points in the South Island but rising 0.7 percentage points in the North Island.

房價是選民另一項主要關切。威靈頓房價已自高點下跌近30%，奧克蘭下跌24.7%，侵蝕中產階級財富；全國跌幅則為17%。House prices, another key concern for voters, are down almost 30% from their peak in Wellington and 24.7% in Auckland, eroding middle-class wealth, versus a drop of 17% nationally.

克爾補充說：「三分之一的經濟表現非常好，另外三分之二仍在努力站穩腳步。」"A third of the economy is doing really well, and two-thirds are still trying to find their feet," Kerr added.

沒有明確重返執政之路NO CLEAR PATH BACK TO GOVERNMENT

民調顯示，選後任何潛在聯盟都沒有明確的執政道路；選民正回頭考慮工黨，或是機會黨（Opportunity Party）等較小政黨。這個中間派政黨可能成為1996年以來第一個進入政府的新政黨。Polls show no clear path back to government after the election for any potential coalition, as voters look back at Labour or smaller parties such as the centrist Opportunity Party that could be the first new party in government since 1996.

機會黨黨魁Qiulae Wong在8月告訴路透社：「人們真的在尋找不一樣的東西。」該黨吸引了都市專業人士，以及對左右光譜分野感到失望的選民。"People are really looking for something different," leader Qiulae Wong told Reuters in August, as the party draws urban professionals and voters disillusioned with the left-right divide.

政治評論員利亞姆・黑希爾（Liam Hehir）表示，要推銷國家黨的主張——也就是財政節制與基礎建設投資方案正在為更強勁的成長打下基礎——已愈來愈困難。It is getting ever harder to sell National's message that the programme of fiscal restraint and infrastructure investment is laying the groundwork for stronger growth, said political commentator Liam Hehir.

他說：「國家黨持續承諾，『我們已經做了艱難的工作，現在將會收穫成果，只要再撐一下。』但你不能把這套說法講上3年。」"National is continuing to promise, 'We've done the hard work, we're going to get the benefits now, just hang on for a bit longer,'" he said. "You don't get three years of that."

左翼聯盟則主張讓政府扮演更大角色，以協助減輕家庭壓力、支持公共服務，並處理住房負擔能力問題。A left-wing coalition is pitching a bigger government role to help relieve household pressures, support public services and tackle housing affordability.

但黑希爾補充說，選民仍記得前工黨政府時期經濟成長疲弱，這使他們比過去更願意「貨比三家」。But voters still remembered weak economic growth under the previous Labour government, leading them to "shop around" more than in the past, Hehir added.

Infometrics首席經濟學家布拉德・奧爾森（Brad Olsen）表示，對選民來說，「那句老話『笨蛋，問題在經濟』依然相當清楚地迴響著」。"The old adage of 'It's the economy, stupid' still rings fairly clear," for voters, said Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen.

在哈特南，哈特利原本應該享受退休生活，卻發現自己仍在兼職工作，因為物價上漲讓她每到週末幾乎所剩無幾。In Hutt South, Hartley should be enjoying retirement but finds herself working part-time, as rising prices leave very little by the end of the week.

哈特利說：「你再也沒有存款了，現在已經沒有那種事了。」"You don't have savings anymore, there is no such thing anymore," Hartley said.

（露西・克雷默與阿拉斯代爾・帕爾報導；克拉倫斯・費南德茲編輯）(Reporting by Lucy Craymer and Alasdair Pal; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)