AI支出壓縮下，大型科技公司返還股東現金比重創15年新低

作者：帕圖拉賈・穆魯加布帕蒂（Patturaja Murugaboopathy）By Patturaja Murugaboopathy

10月30日（路透社）——美國最大型科技公司在2026年前9個月創造了創紀錄的現金，但由於人工智慧支出激增壓縮了股票回購，它們返還給股東的現金比重降至至少15年來最低。Oct 30 (Reuters) - The biggest US technology companies generated record amounts of cash in the first nine months of 2026, yet returned the smallest share of it to shareholders in at least 15 years as surging artificial intelligence spending squeezed share buybacks.

這種退潮威脅到長期支撐科技股股價的一項來源。隨著企業回購股票減少，投資人越來越仰賴龐大的AI投資能帶來足夠的獲利成長，以支撐其估值。The retreat threatens a long-standing source of support for technology share prices. With companies buying back fewer shares, investors are increasingly dependent on heavy AI investments delivering enough profit growth to justify their valuations.

路透社分析倫敦證券交易所集團（LSEG）資料與公司財報後發現，微軟（Microsoft）、Alphabet、亞馬遜（Amazon）、Meta和甲骨文（Oracle）在今年前3季，將其業務產生現金的9.3%以股利和回購形式返還股東，低於一年前的27.4%。Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle returned 9.3% of the cash their businesses generated as dividends and buybacks in the first three quarters of the year, down from 27.4% a year earlier, a Reuters analysis of LSEG data and companies' financial reports showed.

事實上，營運現金流較一年前增加29%，達到創紀錄的5429億美元。Operating cash flow actually rose 29% from a year earlier to a record $542.9 billion.

但在AI熱潮帶動下，資本支出翻倍至5569億美元，首度超過這5家公司所創造的現金；相關資料可追溯至2011年。But capital spending, driven by the AI boom, doubled to $556.9 billion, exceeding the cash the five firms generated for the first time in data going back to 2011.

這使它們合計出現140億美元自由現金流赤字，而一年前則為1435億美元盈餘。That left them with a combined free cash flow deficit of $14 billion, against a surplus of $143.5 billion a year earlier.

這波壓力對回購的衝擊最大。這5家公司將回購金額削減83%，從一年前的818億美元降至136億美元。The squeeze has hit buybacks hardest. The five companies cut repurchases 83% to $13.6 billion, from $81.8 billion a year earlier.

首先被削減的是股票回購BUYBACKS FIRST TO GO

投資人將股利視為一項承諾，而股利從一年前的339億美元，增加到2026年前9個月的370億美元。股票回購則幾乎消失。Dividends, which investors treat as a commitment, rose to $37 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from $33.9 billion a year earlier. Buybacks almost disappeared.

Alphabet和Meta在2026年尚未回購任何股票；去年前9個月，兩家公司曾回購665億美元。亞馬遜不發放股利，自2022年以來也未回購股票。Alphabet and Meta have not repurchased a share in 2026, after buying back $66.5 billion in the first nine months of last year. Amazon pays no dividend and has not bought back shares since 2022.

這5家公司剩餘的回購幾乎全由微軟貢獻；微軟將9月當季回購金額從一年前的57億美元降至44億美元。Microsoft accounted for nearly all the five companies’ remaining repurchases, and cut its buybacks to $4.4 billion in the September quarter from $5.7 billion a year earlier.

部分公司已無法以資本支出後業務所賺取的資金來支應對股東的支付。Some companies are no longer covering their payouts from what their businesses earn after capital spending.

在合計自由現金流（FCF）為負的情況下，這5家公司506億美元的股東支付，實際上是由現金儲備、借款或股票出售所支應。With combined free cash flow (FCF) negative, the five companies’ $50.6 billion in payouts was effectively funded from cash reserves, borrowing or share sales.

亞馬遜第三季759億美元的資本支出，比其營運產生的424億美元現金多出近80%；該公司當季也籌措481億美元長期債務。Amazon’s capital spending of $75.9 billion in the third quarter was almost 80% more than the $42.4 billion its operations generated, and it raised $48.1 billion of long-term debt in the quarter.

Alphabet的自由現金流同樣為負，並透過出售股票籌得約124億美元、舉債籌得290億美元。Alphabet’s free cash flow was also negative, and it raised about $12.4 billion from share sales and $29 billion from debt.

隱藏成本THE HIDDEN COST

回購消失的重要性高於美元數字所顯示的程度，因為多年來，股票回購一直讓每股盈餘看起來更亮眼。The loss of buybacks matters more than the dollar figures suggest, because buybacks have flattered per-share earnings for years.

當企業回購並註銷自家股票時，獲利會分攤到較少的股數上，即使總獲利沒有成長，每股盈餘也會上升。When companies buy back and retire their own shares, profits are spread across fewer shares, lifting earnings per share even when total profits do not grow.

ING表示，Alphabet透過股票回購，在2020年底至2025年間將股數減少9.5%。單是這一點，即使獲利完全沒有增加，也讓每股盈餘（EPS）每年大約增加2%。Alphabet reduced its share count by 9.5% between the end of 2020 and 2025 through buybacks, ING said. That alone provided a boost of roughly 2% a year to earnings per share (EPS), even without any increase in profits.

少了這項助力，每股盈餘就必須來自實際獲利成長。這是一項更艱難的考驗，而且正好發生在新資料中心的折舊費用開始上升之際。Without that boost, per-share earnings must come from actual profit growth. That is a harder test, and it arrives just as depreciation charges on new data centres start to rise.

這也正好打在投資人最敏感的地方。摩根大通（JPMorgan）科技產業專家馬克・席爾斯基（Mark Schilsky）上週在一份客戶報告中表示，投資人「在意EPS的程度遠高於FCF」。It also lands where investors are most sensitive. Investors care “so much more about EPS than FCF,” Mark Schilsky, a technology sector specialist at JPMorgan, said in a client note last week.

MSCI發現，科技與通訊服務類股約占美國市場市值的43.5%，7月的股東收益率僅0.28%，相較之下，其餘市場為1.99%。Technology and communication services stocks, which account for about 43.5% of US market value, delivered a shareholder yield of just 0.28% in July, against 1.99% for the rest of the market, MSCI found.

看不到盡頭NO END IN SIGHT

亞馬遜表示，該公司仍預期今年資本支出約為2200億美元，其他公司也已暗示將進一步增加。Amazon said it still expects about $220 billion of capital spending this year, and the other companies have signalled further increases.

這讓大型科技公司股東面對一筆不同於當初選擇的交易：今天接受較少現金，換取一項賭注——AI終將創造足夠獲利來彌補這一切。That leaves Big Tech shareholders with a different bargain from the one they signed up for, accepting less cash today in exchange for a bet that AI will eventually generate enough profit to make up for it.

富蘭克林坦伯頓（Franklin Templeton）投資管理共同主管艾倫・斯坦霍普（Ehren Stanhope）表示：「過去15年來，企業越來越多透過回購和股利，將多餘資本返還給股東。」"For the last 15 years, companies increasingly returned excess capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends," said Ehren Stanhope, co-head of investment management at Franklin Templeton.

「目前的環境或許會越來越呈現較多股權與債務發行的特徵，也就是向投資人要求資本。」"The current regime may increasingly be characterized by greater equity and debt issuance, a request of capital from investors."

（帕圖拉賈・穆魯加布帕蒂報導；Vidya Ranganathan與Nia Williams編輯）(Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Nia Williams)