新加坡繃緊神經：印尼在霾害與政治困境中反擊鄰國

（更正發稿地日期：應為10月30日，非10月29日）(Corrects dateline to Oct 30, not Oct 29)

作者：Xinghui Kok、Stanley WidiantoBy Xinghui Kok and Stanley Widianto

新加坡，10月30日（路透社）—印尼對鄰國的抨擊料將持續，因為這個處境艱難的政府正試圖緩和外界對其處理福利計畫、市場監管，以及持續野火造成區域霾害等問題的批評。SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Indonesia's swipes at its neighbours are set to last as its embattled government tries to blunt criticism of its handling of welfare programmes, market regulation and persistent wildfires that have choked the region in haze.

新加坡尤其成為雅加達更尖銳言辭的目標，印尼官員警告朝聖者避免經由這個城市國家轉機。Singapore, in particular has been the target of sharpened rhetoric from Jakarta, with Indonesian officials warning pilgrims to avoid transiting through the city-state.

雅加達也削減對新加坡的天然氣供應，印尼能源部長並表示，「所謂的兄弟姊妹」不應教訓印尼要履行合約。Jakarta has also trimmed gas supply to Singapore with its energy minister saying "so-called brothers and sisters" should not lecture Indonesia on honouring contracts.

新加坡試圖淡化這場爭端，該國外交部長本週訪問印尼，會見總統普拉伯沃・蘇比安托（Prabowo Subianto）。Singapore has tried to play down the spat and its foreign minister made a visit to Indonesia this week to meet President Prabowo Subianto.

但這個城市國家也已傳喚涉嫌在印尼自家種植園發生火災的企業代表。But the city-state has also summoned representatives of companies suspected of having fires on their plantations in Indonesia.

分析人士表示，當新加坡和馬來西亞抱怨霾害時，雅加達的民族主義言辭升高；只要印尼的困境仍在，這種言論可能就會持續。Analysts say Jakarta's nationalistic rhetoric, which intensified when Singapore and Malaysia complained about the haze, will likely stay as long as Indonesia's woes remain.

印尼阿赫馬德亞尼將軍大學（Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani）的約哈內斯・蘇萊曼（Yohanes Sulaiman）表示，普拉伯沃經常把問題歸咎於外國勢力，而華人人口占多數的新加坡是容易下手的目標。Prabowo has often blamed foreign actors for problems and Singapore, with its majority Chinese population, is an easy target, said Yohanes Sulaiman, of Indonesia's Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani.

他說：「這屆政府把強度推到11。」"The intensity is pushed to 11 under this administration," he said.

印尼政府通訊辦公室主任夏干達・奈英戈蘭（Syahganda Nainggolan）週五告訴路透社，雅加達持續尋求與新加坡維持密切關係，而外交部長到訪證明兩國關係並未緊張。Syahganda Nainggolan, chief of the Indonesian government’s communications office, told Reuters on Friday that Jakarta continues to seek close relations with Singapore, and the visit by the foreign minister proves the two countries' relations are not strained.

他表示，削減天然氣是出於國內供應考量，只是「剛好碰上看似緊張的情勢」。He said the gas cuts were due to domestic supply considerations and only "coincided with a seemingly tense situation."

抗議與壓力PROTESTS AND PRESSURE

普拉伯沃回擊國際批評，包括全球指數供應商MSCI提出降級威脅；此舉已使印尼市場陷入動盪。Prabowo has pushed back against international criticism, including a downgrade threat from global index provider MSCI, which has sent Indonesia's markets into turmoil.

一名前印尼官員指稱，新加坡主權財富基金在MSCI施壓中扮演角色，但未提出證據；這項指控並由一些社群媒體帳號放大，這些帳號的貼文獲得政府要員「按讚」。相關基金否認涉入。One former Indonesian official blamed Singapore sovereign wealth funds for having a role in the MSCI pressure, but offered no evidence, with the accusation amplified by social media accounts that were "liked" by prominent government figures. The funds denied any involvement.

約哈內斯表示，繼火災，以及一項指標性免費午餐計畫出現食物中毒和貪腐問題後，MSCI的降級威脅使普拉伯沃政府的問題雪上加霜。Yohanes said the MSCI downgrade threat compounded problems for Prabowo's administration after the fires, as well as food poisoning and corruption issues at a signature free lunch programme.

根據一項民調，普拉伯沃的人氣大幅下滑，支持率從去年底的81.2%降至本月的44.5%。Prabowo's popularity has fallen sharply, with his approval rating reaching 44.5% this month according to one survey, from 81.2% late last year.

本週，印尼多座城市爆發抗議，反對其政府對火災的因應。Protests occurred in several Indonesian cities this week over his government's response to the fires.

最新緊張局勢與過去幾次情況相似：印尼在國內動盪時期，曾批評新加坡、馬來西亞和西方等外部勢力。The latest tensions mirror previous episodes where Indonesia has criticised external forces such as Singapore, Malaysia and the West during periods of domestic strife.

新加坡面積約與紐約市相當、人口620萬。1998年，印尼時任總統談及亞洲金融危機時，貶稱新加坡是一個並非朋友的「小紅點」。Singapore, roughly the size of New York City and with a 6.2 million population, was in 1998 disparaged by Indonesia's president at the time as a "little red dot" that was not a friend when talking about the Asian Financial Crisis.

在1960年代，情況更曾演變成赤裸暴力。當時印尼面臨國內惡性通膨與不穩定，印尼總統蘇卡諾（Sukarno）發動一項行動，導致新加坡在被稱為「對抗」（konfrontasi）的時期發生42起炸彈攻擊未遂事件。In the 1960s, there was outright violence when Indonesian President Sukarno launched a campaign that resulted in 42 bombing attempts in Singapore during a period called the "konfrontasi", while Indonesia faced hyperinflation and instability at home.

「茶杯裡的風暴」'STORM IN A TEACUP'

兩國現任與前任官員本週都試圖平息風波。Current and former officials from both countries sought to calm the waters this week.

新加坡外交部長維文（Vivian Balakrishnan）週三告訴媒體：「有分歧是可預期的。」他說：「甚至有時也會出現論戰式的發言。」"Differences are to be expected," Singapore's foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan told media on Wednesday. "Even polemic statements sometimes, from time to time," he said.

印尼前駐新加坡大使蘇約・普拉托莫（Suryo Pratomo）表示，部分印尼部長的發言是即時反應，並非政府政策。Suryo Pratomo, a former Indonesian ambassador to Singapore, said the comments made by some Indonesian ministers were immediate reactions and not administration policy.

他說：「印尼與新加坡的關係是互補，不是競爭。」"Indonesia and Singapore's relationship is complementary, not competitive," he said.

新加坡是印尼最大的外國直接投資來源，去年投資額達174億美元。印尼也仰賴經由新加坡進口燃料，以及連接全球的網際網路纜線。Singapore is Indonesia's largest source of foreign direct investment at $17.4 billion last year. Indonesia is also reliant on fuel imports and global internet cables through Singapore.

外交政策分析師黛薇・福爾圖娜・安瓦爾（Dewi Fortuna Anwar）說：「這是茶杯裡的風暴。」“It’s a storm in a teacup,” said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a foreign policy analyst.

但她補充說，印尼存在「敏感的民族主義」，使其對其他國家被認為的輕慢與干涉更加敏感。But there is “prickly nationalism” that leads Indonesia to be more sensitive to perceived slights and interference from other countries, she added.

（新加坡Xinghui Kok、雅加達Stanley Widianto報導；Josh Smith、Toby Chopra編輯）(Reporting by Xinghui Kok in Singapore and Stanley Widianto in Jakarta; Editing by Josh Smith and Toby Chopra)