分析：以色列大選可能換掉領導人，但不會改變對伊朗戰爭政策

作者：薩米亞・納庫爾By Samia Nakhoul

杜拜，10月21日（路透）——區域政策制定者與分析人士表示，以色列下週的選舉可能改變國家領導人，卻不會改變其戰略：伊朗仍將是以色列的主要敵手，軍事武力將繼續是其偏好的工具，而巴勒斯坦建國仍是遙遠前景。DUBAI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Israel's election next week may change its leader, but not its strategy: Iran will remain its chief adversary, military force will continue to be its preferred tool and Palestinian statehood a distant prospect, regional policymakers and analysts say.

這是因為，巴勒斯坦武裝組織哈瑪斯2023年10月7日對以色列南部社區發動攻擊，以及加薩、黎巴嫩與伊朗的戰爭，已使支撐以色列政策的戰略假設更加強硬。That is because the strategic assumptions underpinning Israeli policy were hardened by the October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israeli communities by Palestinian militant group Hamas and by the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

分析人士表示，以色列的安全政策甚至可能更趨強硬，因為若總理班雅明・納坦雅胡在極右翼聯盟夥伴支持下勝選，可能讓他更有底氣升高與伊朗的戰爭、加強以色列對被占領約旦河西岸的控制，並把外交進一步推向邊緣。以色列的安全準則如今建立在三大支柱之上：擊垮伊朗、在邊境外維持緩衝區，以及以武力嚇阻敵人。If anything, Israel could toughen its security policy, the analysts said, as victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with the backing of far-right coalition partners could embolden him to step up the war with Iran, tighten Israel's grip on the occupied West Bank and push diplomacy further to the margins. Israel's security doctrine now rests on three pillars: breaking Iran, holding buffer zones beyond its borders and using force to deter enemies.

分析人士指出，真正的分歧在於程度，而不是方向——以色列會以多激進的方式打仗、會把約旦河西岸的猶太屯墾區擴張到多遠，以及是否有領導人會選擇外交途徑。The real divide is one of degree rather than direction — how aggressively Israel fights its wars, how far it expands Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether any leader opts for diplomacy, the analysts said.

從德黑蘭到利雅德，各方並不把週二的選舉視為潛在轉折點，而是視為一項測試：中東是否正在進入一場長期對抗，戰爭起伏不定，但根本衝突仍未解決。From Tehran to Riyadh, Tuesday's election is not seen as a potential turning point but as a test of whether the Middle East is settling into a long confrontation, where wars ebb and flow while the underlying conflicts are unresolved.

納坦雅胡前顧問阿維夫・布辛斯基（Aviv Bushinsky）說：「如果納坦雅胡當選，他認為自己想做什麼就會做什麼。屯墾區擴張會繼續。針對伊朗、哈瑪斯和真主黨的戰爭也會繼續。」「你現在看到的，就是選後會看到的情況，甚至可能更加激進，」他說。「只要伊朗處於這樣的情況，談巴勒斯坦就是浪費時間。」"If Netanyahu is elected, he'll do whatever he thinks he wants to do," said Aviv Bushinsky, a former adviser to Netanyahu. "Expansion of the settlements will continue. The wars against Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue." "What you see now is what you'll see after the election, maybe even more aggressively," he said. "As long as Iran is in such a situation, it's a waste of time talking about Palestine.”

納坦雅胡週日表示，以色列必須優先考量「預防與進攻，而非圍堵與防禦」，包括以先發制人的打擊阻止新興威脅，同時把以色列打造為區域強權，並最大限度提升其在軍備上的自主性。Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel must prioritise “prevention and offence over containment and defence”, including pre-emptive strikes to thwart emerging threats, while establishing Israel as a regional power and maximising its independence in armaments.

為何路線不太可能改變 這場選舉中，納坦雅胡的右翼利庫德黨及其極端民族主義盟友，將對上由前軍方首長加迪・埃森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）領導的亞沙爾黨（Yashar）所帶領的反對陣營。巴勒斯坦分析人士加桑・哈提卜（Ghassan al-Khatib）認為，隨著以色列民意進一步右傾，各政黨競相展現更強硬立場，對巴勒斯坦人的政策看不到根本轉變的可能。他說：「政策的實質仍然相同：不要巴勒斯坦國，要進一步擴張屯墾區。在這一點上，他們全都一致。」WHY THE COURSE IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE The election pits Netanyahu's right-wing Likud and its ultranationalist allies against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib sees no prospect of a fundamental shift in policy towards the Palestinians, with Israeli political parties competing to project harder-line positions as public opinion moves further to the right. “The substance of the policy remains the same: No to a Palestinian state and yes to further settlement expansion. On this, they are all in agreement,” he said.

哈提卜說，由納坦雅胡對手領導的政府，可能會試圖藉由遏制部分屯墾者暴力，或以較低調方式推動屯墾區擴張，來修復以色列的國際形象。但這類改變將是風格上的轉變，而非實質上的轉變。A government led by Netanyahu's opponents might seek to repair Israel's international standing by curbing some settler violence or pursuing settlement expansion with less fanfare. But such changes would be a shift in style rather than substance, al-Khatib said.

卡內基中東中心（Carnegie Middle East Center）的麥可・楊（Michael Young）表示，以色列安全體系及其相當一部分政治階層擁有共同的戰略觀，核心是對抗伊朗、維持「前沿防衛」並保住軍事嚇阻力，這縮小了重大政策轉向的空間。曾在約旦河西岸進行研究的國際危機組織（International Crisis Group）成員約斯特・希爾特曼（Joost Hiltermann）說，屯墾者暴力增加、巴勒斯坦人挫折感加深，以及缺乏「政治前景」，已形成易燃局勢，即使是小小的導火線也可能引爆更大規模的起義。Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said Israel's security establishment and much of its political class share a common strategic outlook, centred on confronting Iran, maintaining "forward defence" and preserving military deterrence, reducing the scope for big policy shifts. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, who has conducted research in the West Bank, said growing settler violence, mounting Palestinian frustration and the absence of a "political horizon" had created combustible conditions, where even a minor trigger could spark a wider uprising.

「毒章魚」'VENOMOUS OCTOPUS'

一些區域政策制定者提出疑問：無論誰贏得選舉，以色列與伊朗的對抗是否已成為中東安全的組織原則。Some regional policymakers ask whether Israel's confrontation with Iran has become the organising principle of Middle East security, regardless of who wins the election.

美國總統川普稱讚納坦雅胡是「偉大的戰士總理」，這強化外界預期：若這位以色列領導人保住權力，他將試圖完成對德黑蘭的戰役。US President Donald Trump's praise of Netanyahu as a "great warrior prime minister" has reinforced expectations that the Israeli leader will try to finish the campaign against Tehran if he retains power.

納坦雅胡已明確表示，他的野心不只在於圍堵伊朗，而是推翻其神職統治者。Netanyahu has made clear his ambitions extend beyond containing Iran to toppling its clerical rulers.

他本週在一場演說中說：「完成任務，意味著推翻伊朗這個恐怖主義政權——這隻毒章魚的頭。」“Completing the task means toppling the terrorist regime in Iran, the head of the venomous octopus,” he said in a speech this week.

但軍事與政治分析人士質疑，除非美國與以色列發動地面入侵，否則是否有任何手段足以迫使德黑蘭放棄其視為核心安全利益的目標；在德黑蘭眼中，這是一場攸關存亡的戰鬥。伊朗在歷經數月戰爭後存活下來，或許正押注自己能比對手撐得更久，同時繼續透過區域盟友施壓。楊說：「這是一個泥淖。伊朗人能比川普撐得更久。」黎巴嫩的真主黨與加薩的哈瑪斯已被削弱，但分析人士表示，範圍更廣的親伊朗組織網絡仍存活下來，而這場衝突可能會強化德黑蘭追求核嚇阻力的決心。儘管納坦雅胡令阿拉伯世界十分憂心，一些波斯灣國家領袖仍認為，他是最可能讓伊朗持續承壓的以色列政治人物。But military and political analysts question whether anything short of a US-Israeli ground invasion would force Tehran to abandon what it views as its core security interests in what it sees as an existential fight. After surviving months of war, Iran may be betting it can outlast its opponents while continuing to exert pressure through regional allies. "This is a quagmire," Young said. "The Iranians can outlast Trump." Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have been weakened, but the broader network of Iran-aligned groups has survived and the conflict could strengthen Tehran's determination to pursue a nuclear deterrent, the analysts said. For all the alarm Netanyahu causes in the Arab world, some Gulf leaders still see him as the Israeli politician most likely to keep Iran under pressure.

這為他們製造了一項兩難。他們反對自己眼中納坦雅胡的擴張主義政策，卻也希望伊朗影響力受到遏制。This creates a dilemma for them. They oppose what they view as his expansionist policies but want Iranian influence curbed.

海灣研究中心（Gulf Research Center）主席阿卜杜勒阿齊茲・薩格爾（Abdulaziz Sager）說：「納坦雅胡在加薩、約旦河西岸、敘利亞和黎巴嫩的政策具有破壞性。至於伊朗，必須在衝突進一步升高前達成解決方案。如果伊朗的角色不受遏制，這個區域可能正走向50年的伊朗霸權。」"Netanyahu's policies in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon are damaging," said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Gulf Research Center. "As for Iran, a settlement is needed before the conflict escalates further. If Iran's role is not curbed, the region could be heading toward 50 years of Iranian hegemony."

（耶路撒冷馬揚・盧貝爾補充報導，薩米亞・納庫爾撰稿，提摩西・赫里蒂奇編輯）(Additional reporting from Maayan Lubell in Jerusalem, Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage)