南非選票分裂，城市治理將陷入多黨角力

作者：貝特・費利克斯（Bate Felix）、妮莉・佩頓（Nellie Peyton）By Bate Felix and Nellie Peyton

約翰尼斯堡，11月2日（路透社）——姆福・莫羅卡（Mpho Moroka）2008年第一次投票時，支持的是非洲民族議會（African National Congress）。近20年後，這名來自索維托、38歲的失業者在地方選舉前轉而支持其對手民主聯盟（Democratic Alliance）。JOHANNESBURG, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The first time Mpho Moroka voted, in 2008, she backed the African National Congress. Almost two decades on, the unemployed 38-year-old from Soweto has switched sides to the rival Democratic Alliance ahead of local elections.

她在民主聯盟一場競選造勢活動上告訴路透社：「我來自城鎮區。我看見貧窮，看見人們的掙扎，也看見一切都沒有改變。所以我說，不要再支持非洲民族議會了。」"I'm from the township. I saw the poverty, I saw the struggles and I saw that there is no change," she told Reuters at a Democratic Alliance campaign rally. "So I said no more ANC."

莫羅卡的轉向反映出南非選民更廣泛的分裂，使各政黨越來越難取得絕對多數。Moroka's shift reflects a broader fragmentation of South Africa's electorate that has made outright majorities increasingly difficult to secure.

民調顯示，過去長期占主導地位的非洲民族議會，整體而言仍將是最大單一政黨，但在11月4日的選舉中支持率將大幅流失。Polls suggest the historically dominant ANC will remain the biggest single party overall, but suffer a haemorrhaging of support in the November 4 votes.

在沒有明確勝選者的情況下，該黨及其對手將不得不坐下來，展開棘手的聯盟協商，以治理南非主要城市自治體。In the absence of clear victories, the party and its rivals will have to sit down to the fraught task of negotiating coalitions to govern South Africa's major municipalities.

他們面臨的挑戰，是跨越彼此分歧，組成足夠穩定的政府，以改善服務、重建基礎建設並吸引投資。Their challenge — to get over their differences and form administrations stable enough to improve services, rebuild infrastructure and attract investment.

「許多政黨都騙過我們」'WE'VE BEEN LIED TO BY MANY PARTIES'

牛津經濟非洲（Oxford Economics Africa）資深政治分析師羅夫・內爾（Louw Nel）表示，民調顯示非洲民族議會的支持率可能降至31%至34%，約為該黨在2011年地方選舉中取得逾60%得票率的一半。Louw Nel, senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said polling suggested support for the ANC could fall to as low as 31% to 34% — around half the more than 60% it secured in the 2011 local elections.

不過，內爾告訴路透社，第二大黨民主聯盟並未吸收所有離開非洲民族議會的選民。But the Democratic Alliance, the second-biggest party, was not capturing all of its deserters, Nel told Reuters.

他說，選民反而分散到多個政黨，包括左翼傾向的經濟自由鬥士黨，以及由前總統雅各・朱瑪（Jacob Zuma）領導的民族之矛黨（uMkhonto weSizwe）。數百個政黨參與這次選舉。Instead, he said, voters were dispersing among a number of parties including the left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe, led by former president Jacob Zuma. Hundreds of parties are taking part in the votes.

選民不滿的跡象不只出現在約翰尼斯堡。Signs of disaffection extend beyond Johannesburg.

在開普敦，28歲失業首投族阿卜杜勒・通塔（Abdul Tonta）說，他想要改變和工作機會。In Cape Town, unemployed first-time voter Abdul Tonta, 28, said he wanted change and jobs.

他說：「很顯然，過去許多政黨騙了我們很多次……我至少去投票，是因為我想看到像我這樣的人，以及像我兄弟那樣的人也能有工作。」"Obviously we've been lied to a lot of times … by many parties in the past," he said. "I'm at least voting because I want to see people like me and people like my brothers having jobs as well."

「聯合執政會拖住你的腳步」'COALITIONS HOLD YOU BACK'

雖然有些人樂見改變的可能，但也有人警告，未來市政廳的聯盟協議與閉門協商將帶來負面影響。While some welcomed the prospect of change, others warned of downsides to a future of city hall coalition deals and closed-door negotiations.

公民社會團體「約堡危機聯盟」（Joburg Crisis Alliance）協調人尤努斯・查姆達（Yunus Chamda）說：「現行法規下，聯合執政的一個問題是，這些安排留給各政黨自行協商。」該團體成立於2023年，目的是因應他所稱的「聯盟混亂」。"One problem with coalitions under the current legislation is that they are left to parties to negotiate amongst themselves," said Yunus Chamda, coordinator of the civil society group Joburg Crisis Alliance, formed in 2023 to deal with what he called "coalition chaos".

查姆達表示，不斷變動的政治聯盟與市長頻繁更替，已使約翰尼斯堡的服務惡化、財政下滑；原因包括讓小黨掌握過多權力，並讓政治人物得以逃避問責。Shifting political alliances and a revolving door of mayors have contributed to worsening services and financial decline in Johannesburg, including by giving small parties too much power and allowing politicians to evade accountability, Chamda said.

約翰尼斯堡前兩任市長皆出自一個在市議會270席中僅有3席的政黨。自2021年以來，這座城市已出現7位市長。Johannesburg's previous two mayors were from a party that had only three out of 270 seats in the city council. The city has seen seven mayors since 2021.

查姆達說：「這造成了巨大的不穩定。而當你質問政黨時，他們可以把批評轉移到『這是聯合執政』這個事實上。」"It's created this huge instability. And when you confront political parties, they are able to divert the attack to the fact that it's a coalition," Chamda said.

分析人士表示，在競爭激烈的城市自治體中，通往穩定地方政府的一條路，可能是讓非洲民族議會與民主聯盟複製全國層級的安排。這兩個傳統對手在2024年選後已在中央政府攜手合作。Analysts said one route to stable municipal governments in highly contested municipalities could be for the ANC and the DA, traditional rivals that joined forces in the national government after the 2024 election, to replicate that arrangement locally.

內爾說：「在約翰尼斯堡、茨瓦內和埃庫魯萊尼等城市，最重要的問題是它們能否產生穩定政府。」"The most important question in cities like Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni is whether they will produce a stable government," Nel said.

兩黨都需要衡量在全國、省級與地方層級共同執政的政治代價。兩黨都不熱中於這個前景。Both parties would need to weigh the political cost of governing together across national, provincial and municipal levels. Neither is enthusiastic about the prospect.

非洲民族議會約翰尼斯堡區域主席洛伊索・馬蘇庫（Loyiso Masuku）上月在一場競選活動中說：「聯合執政讓我們難以全面落實我們的政綱。」"Coalitions make it difficult for us to fully implement our programme," the ANC's Johannesburg regional chairperson, Loyiso Masuku, said at a campaign stop last month.

民主聯盟約翰尼斯堡市長候選人海倫・齊勒（Helen Zille）表示，合作夥伴往往不尊重已簽署的協議。The DA's candidate for mayor of Johannesburg, Helen Zille, said partners often don't respect the agreements that were signed.

她說：「從定義上來說，聯合執政會拖住你的腳步。」"By definition, coalitions hold you back," she said.

（採訪：貝特・費利克斯、妮莉・佩頓；補充採訪：開普敦Esa Alexander、約翰尼斯堡Siyabonga Sishi；編輯：Andrew Heavens）(Reporting by Bate Felix and Nellie Peyton; Additional reporting by Esa Alexander in Cape Town and Siyabonga Sishi in Johannesburg; Editing by Andrew Heavens)