阿根廷經濟受緊縮衝擊逼近衰退，2027年大選前考驗米雷伊

尼古拉斯・米斯庫林（Nicolás Misculin）報導By Nicolás Misculin

布宜諾斯艾利斯（BUENOS AIRES），11月2日（路透）——在布宜諾斯艾利斯一家家族經營的工廠裡，一台用來包裝彩色襪子的機器靜靜停擺。BUENOS AIRES, Nov 2 (Reuters) - At a family-owned factory in Buenos Aires, a machine used to wrap packets of colored socks sits silent.

Eseka 這座工廠每月仍生產近300萬件商品，包括旗下 Cocot 和 Dufour 品牌的內衣與泳裝。但和許多本地企業一樣，它正苦苦求生。自總統哈維爾・米雷伊（Javier Milei）近3年前上任以來，銷售額已下滑約40%；在政府解除貿易限制後，疲弱的消費需求與較便宜進口商品的競爭重創業績。Eseka still produces nearly 3 million items a month at the factory, including underwear and swimwear for its Cocot and Dufour brands. But like many local businesses, it is struggling to stay afloat. Since President Javier Milei took office nearly three years ago, sales have fallen around 40%, battered by weak consumer demand and competition from cheaper imports as the government has lifted trade restrictions.

這對阿根廷至關重要，因為家庭消費約占國內生產毛額（GDP）三分之二，任何持續的支出縮減都會拖累整體經濟。That matters in Argentina, where household consumption accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, making any sustained pullback in spending a drag on the broader economy.

經濟學家表示，阿根廷經濟很可能已在第三季陷入衰退。距離2027年10月總統大選還有一年，這將考驗選民的耐心；外界普遍預期米雷伊將尋求連任。Economists says the economy likely slipped into a recession in the third quarter, a test of voter patience a year ahead of the October 2027 presidential election, when Milei is widely expected to run for a second term.

智庫 Fundar 的資料顯示，從米雷伊於2023年12月掌權到今年7月為止，約有3萬2300家企業歇業，約占阿根廷企業總數的6%。Some 32,300 businesses — roughly 6% of the total companies in Argentina — closed in the period from when Milei took power in December 2023 through to July, according to think-tank Fundar.

「情況很嚴峻，」與兄弟古斯塔沃（Gustavo）共同經營 Eseka 的里卡多・庫奇基安（Ricardo Kuchikian）說。兄弟倆表示，該公司去年出現虧損，並裁減約30%員工；襪廠裡超過一半的圓編機處於閒置狀態。"The situation is critical," said Ricardo Kuchikian, who owns Eseka with his brother Gustavo. The firm posted losses last year and shed about 30% of its workforce, according to the brothers. Over half of the circular knitting machines in the sock factory stand idle.

庫奇基安說：「過去3年，消費下滑得非常劇烈。」"Consumption has fallen very sharply over the past three years," Kuchikian said.

追蹤超市、小型零售商與電商平台銷售的市場研究公司 Scentia 表示，今年前9個月，阿根廷消費較2025年同期下滑2.7%。In the first nine months of the year consumption in Argentina fell 2.7% compared with the same period in 2025, according to market research firm Scentia, which tracks sales across supermarkets, small retailers and e-commerce platforms.

米雷伊激進的緊縮措施雖已讓通膨率從高達200%降至30%，並控制住其他總體經濟失衡，但這些成效尚未惠及大部分民眾。在2025年降至8年低點後，生活在貧窮線以下的阿根廷人比例已回升至將近總人口三分之一。While Milei's radical austerity measures have slowed inflation to 30% from a sky-high 200% and brought other macroeconomic imbalances under control, their benefits have yet to reach much of the broader public. The share of Argentines living beneath the poverty line has risen to nearly a third of the population, after falling to an eight-year low in 2025.

此外，經濟學家表示，在緊縮政策與偏緊貨幣政策帶動下，阿根廷很可能在第三季陷入衰退。外界預估2027年將小幅反彈。To boot, Argentina likely dipped into recession in the third quarter, economists say, driven by austerity and tight monetary policy. A slight rebound is forecast in 2027.

外界預估，7月至9月期間經濟活動已連續第二季萎縮，符合一般對衰退的定義。該季官方數據將於11月公布。Economic activity is forecast to have contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the July-September period, meeting the common definition of a recession. Official data for the quarter will be released in November.

顧問公司 Analytica 負責人里卡多・德爾加多（Ricardo Delgado）說：「阿根廷經濟在技術上正處於溫和衰退。」GDP 已在第二季較第一季下滑0.6%，德爾加多預測第三季將進一步萎縮約1.5%。“Argentina’s economy is technically in a moderate recession,” said Ricardo Delgado, head of consultancy Analytica. GDP already fell 0.6% in the second quarter from the first, and Delgado forecasts a further contraction of around 1.5% for the third quarter.

顧問公司 Giacobbe y Asociados 最近一項調查顯示，米雷伊的支持率在10月微幅下滑至36%，不支持率則升至56%。According to a recent survey by consultancy Giacobbe y Asociados, Milei’s approval rating slipped slightly in October to 36% while disapproval rose to 56%.

當然，並非所有經濟部門都在受苦。能源、礦業與農業已成為米雷伊模式下的贏家，動能來自出口、阿根廷龐大頁岩油氣蘊藏的投資，以及全球對鋰等礦物需求上升。To be sure, not all of the economy is suffering. Energy, mining and agriculture have emerged as the winners under Milei’s model, driven by exports and investment in Argentina’s vast shale oil and gas reserves, as well as rising global demand for minerals such as lithium.

但這些出口導向產業的強勢，迄今仍未抵消其他與內需市場相關產業的低迷。紡織、汽車製造、零售與營建都持續承壓，因為消費者仍感受到財務壓力。But the strength of these export-oriented sectors has so far not offset the slump in other industries tied to the domestic market. Textiles, auto manufacturing, retail and construction have all remained under pressure as consumers continue to feel the squeeze.

Analytica 的德爾加多表示，他預期這種雙軌經濟將在2027年持續「起伏」，並警告選前家庭財務狀況不太可能顯著改善。Analytica's Delgado said he expected that two-track economy to continue with "ups and downs" in 2027, warning that household finances were unlikely to improve meaningfully before the election.

米雷伊已排除改變其經濟計畫的可能，並把人們入不敷出的說法斥為「極其愚蠢」。Milei has ruled out changes to his economic plan, dismissing as "colossal stupidity" claims that people were unable to make ends meet.

「激烈競爭」'AGGRESSIVE COMPETITION'

米雷伊放寬嚴格的進口限制、資本與外匯管制，以及其他長期壓抑阿根廷企業的規範，受到投資人喝采。但對許多本地企業而言，這項轉變帶來痛苦調整：就在內需轉弱之際，它們也暴露在更便宜進口商品的競爭之下。Investors have cheered Milei’s easing of strict import restrictions, capital and currency controls and other regulations that long weighed on business in Argentina. But for many local firms, the shift has brought a painful adjustment, exposing them to cheaper imported goods just as domestic demand weakens.

阿根廷國家統計暨普查局（INDEC）8月官方數據顯示，製造業年減3.2%，零售與批發貿易下滑3.5%，營建業下降2.5%。Official data from August showed manufacturing fell 3.2% year-on-year, retail and wholesale trade dropped 3.5%, and construction declined 2.5%, according to Argentina’s INDEC statistics agency.

「自2023年底以來，我認為銷售已下滑40%，」另一家家族企業、布料經銷商 Dakuba 董事馬丁・阿比加多爾（Martin Abigador）說。“Since the end of 2023, I think sales have fallen 40%,” said Martin Abigador, director of Dakuba, another family-owned business that distributes fabrics.

他的公司一直無法抵消他所稱來自外國進口商品的「激烈競爭」，主要是來自中國。His company has been unable to offset what he described as "aggressive competition" from foreign imports, mainly from China.

回到襪廠，庫奇基安擔心，如果米雷伊的政策持續下去，「國內產業可能會消失」。Back at the sock factory, Kuchikian feared that if Milei's policies continue "national industry could disappear.”

政府發言人為復甦步調不均辯護，表示成長從來不會在各產業間均勻發生。A spokesperson for the government defended the uneven pace of the recovery, saying that growth never occurs uniformly across sectors.

這名發言人說：「這是總統所信奉的經濟計畫，他不會改變。」"This is the economic program the president believes in, and he is not going to change it," the spokesperson said.

（尼古拉斯・米斯庫林報導；露辛達・艾略特撰稿；安東尼・埃斯波西托與羅莎爾巴・奧布萊恩編輯）(Reporting by Nicolas Misculin; Writing by Lucinda Elliott; Editing by Anthony Esposito and Rosalba O'Brien)