Beyond the urban-rural divide: Thailand’s election redrew the political map

The February 8 election delivered seismic changes in Thailand’s political landscape, as new fault lines erupted to erase the decades-old urban-rural divide.

Initial results show a resounding win for Bhumjaithai with 193 seats, followed by the People’s Party with 118 and Pheu Thai with 74.

The outcome not only ended more than two decades of electoral dominance by Thaksin-aligned and reformist parties but also overturned the dominant narrative of Thai politics since the 1990s – the so-called “Tale of Two Democracies”.

Decoding Bangkokians

Bangkok voters handed the liberal, reformist People’s Party a landslide in the capital.

“This showed that Bangkokians are not conservative, contrary to a widely held belief,” said Stithorn Thananithichot, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University.

Historically, Bangkok’s millions-strong electorate – dominated by middle-class, business and professional voters – has favoured conservative parties like the Democrats, who project a strong image of technocratic competence, fiscal prudence and urban governance.

Rural voters, in comparison, have traditionally focused on tangible benefits, local patronage networks and pragmatic, material concerns rather than political policies.

This marked difference in priorities made Bangkokians distrustful of politicians elected by rural voters, leading many to welcome military intervention or join street protests to oust elected administrations that failed to meet their standards.

Political scientist Anek Laothamatas’s 1994 theory of “A Tale of Two Democracies” materialised in 2001, when Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai Party came to power.

Backed by enormous support from rural voters, Thaksin managed to overcome the traditional dominance of Bangkok’s establishment elite.

Yet deep tensions between two sides played out for the next two decades in mass protests, political polarisation and military coups.

This trend finally began shifting in 2019, when Bangkok voters threw their support behind pro-democracy parties taking a stand against coup leaders.

The shift gained momentum in 2023, when Move Forward won all but one seat in the capital, before its successor, the People’s Party, completed a clean sweep in Bangkok on February 8.

Stithorn said Bangkok voters can be divided into three groups: the elite, the middle class and the vulnerable.

“Only the elite is now sticking with the conservative camp, while the middle class – the largest group – is seeking progressive politics and a free, fair economy that offers equal opportunities,” he said, explaining the People’s Party’s landslide victory.

He added that Bangkok voters resisted the Democrat Party’s push to restore its traditional stronghold in the capital because many of its candidates were drawn from political clans associated with old-style patronage politics.

The scale of the People’s Party’s dominance in Bangkok is underscored by the party-list vote. It received 1.3 million votes in the capital, compared with just roughly 500,000 for Bhumjaithai, 290,000 for the Democrats and 260,000 for Pheu Thai.

And Stithorn forecasts that support for the main opposition party in Bangkok will continue to grow, driven by rising urban demand for national reform.

“The People’s Party will remain the favourite among Bangkok voters, at least until another party with standout progressive policies comes forward,” he said.

Change in rural mindset

Stithorn said this year’s election also showed Thai voters clearly understand the difference between the constituency and party-list ballots – and adjust their voting strategies accordingly.

Rural voters still tend to favour “pork-barrel” politics, choosing MPs who they believe will mobilise state funds to respond to local emergencies like floods or droughts.

Hence, rural voters lean towards candidates they consider reliable and approachable.

Stithorn cited the Klatham Party, explaining it had exceeded expectations by securing 56 constituency seats because its leader, former agriculture and cooperatives minister Thammanat Prompao, had connected on the ground with farmers.

“Thai voters have long been resistant to vote-buying, with cash handouts not necessarily translating into votes. However, some people – especially the poor – can still be swayed by other means,” he said.

Prajak Kongkirati, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University, agreed that the old rural-urban political divide collapsed at this election.

In a recent interview, he said that many rural voters split their vote, choosing the People’s Party in the party-list ballot but backing another party’s candidate as their constituency MP.

“This proves that the Tale of Two Democracies concept is outdated,” he said. “Both urban and rural voters are now opting for the same party in the list system.”

The People’s Party’s success in the list vote extended to landslides in rural heartlands like Mae Hong Son, Uttaradit, Kanchanaburi, Kamphaeng Phet, Prachin Buri, Chanthaburi, Nakhon Nayok, Ayutthaya, Saraburi, Ratchaburi, Tak, Nakhon Nayok and Chachoengsao.

Nationwide, the People's Party receives 9.7 million party-list votes.

“Rural voters want a policy-driven, progressive political party for the country as a whole. It’s just that for their daily lives, they still need MPs who operate through the patronage system,” Prajak said.

He added that Bangkokians have also become more progressive, liberal and democratic in the tumultuous three decades since the Tale of Two Democracies concept was conceived.

“They now realise that voting is the solution, and that problems can only be solved via democratic means,” he said.

What’s next?

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said political parties must recognise that building strong ties with constituents is crucial to electoral victories.

“Become a part of their lives,” he urged.

Chaipong Samnieng, a Naresuan University social sciences lecturer, said parties that maintain a patronage system would now have to work harder to retain their strongholds.

“Emerging voting trends show that people no longer place unconditional faith in a politician or a political party,” he said.

“Hence, those who want to protect their political bases will have to be far more responsive to local people’s needs and pour in more resources, otherwise they may lose to new challengers.”

Chaipong pointed out that the People’s Party has managed to attract mass support merely with its ideology and influence over legislation. Despite never having been in government, its policies appeal strongly to both rural and urban voters.

Politicians who fail to adapt to the changing political landscape risk suffering the same fate as former Pheu Thai leader and ex-public health minister, Cholnan Srikaew, who lost his long-held seat in Nan province to Klatham Party underdog Prasit Notha.