Scamming charges, fears of banking collapse ‘accelerate peace’

October 26, 2025: High-level anxiety in Phnom Penh may be helping the peace process with Bangkok.

According to an analysis on The Manager website, a flood of international allegations concerning far-reaching scamming racketeers in Cambodia as well as growing concerns that business and personal financial losses resulting from the border conflict might soon lead to an explosion of non-performing loans are possibly having a big impact. The latter problem has to do directly with the border dispute with Thailand as both small and large businesses are being affected. The former situation also has something to do with Thailand, as the more the bilateral conflict drags on glaringly, the more global attention on massive scamming that allegedly originated from inside Cambodia will increase.

The Manager noted that both Prime Minister Hun Manet and his influential father Hun Sen have remarkably toned down their belligerence and even called on their own citizens, whom they themselves had apparently drummed anti-Thailand sentiment into, to calm down.

Cambodia is facing a perfect storm, The Manager said, which includes shortages of necessary goods and supplies; local products getting more expensive as a result; unemployment ballooning drastically; problems emerging regarding banking transactions; NPLs threatening to spiral out of control; and political confidence dropping especially when the United States, United Kingdom and South Korea raising doubts about scamming.

No offence to Cambodia, but the ship is too small to cope with all that.

It’s Gun Jompalang’s turn and he must face it

October 24-25, 2025: Not even superhero can escape scrutiny. Ask Superman or Batman.

For years, Gun Jompalang has worn a cape in edited photos or illustrations in the media and social media, and most people liked it. The adoration and admiration came in the form of millions in donations as well, which sets him apart from the guy from the Planet Krypton and Bruce Wayne.

When it has emerged that the money, tens of millions, is bound by a legal clause saying all of the cash would head to controversial politician Thammanat Prompao if Gun Jompalang (Gunnathat Pongpaiboonwet) officially ceases his volunteering public service activities, doubts are growing.

Names in the legal documents are being changed as Gun scrambles to repair the damage. But the scrutiny into related foundations will not, and should never, end there. His supporters deserve to know everything inside and out.

Previously, whenever he acted, someone else would get scrutinised. It’s his turn now.

Guilty or not, quitting sets good example

October 23, 2025: Whether it’s his own decision, or a result of somebody else’s pressure, the resignation of Deputy Finance Minister Vorapak Tanyawong from the Cabinet is what Thai politics should see.

The future is up to whether he can defend himself against charges of involvement with scamming racketeers. It’s a matter between him and the justice system. That he helps prevent the matter between him and the justice system from becoming complicated and affecting many things else deserves to be cited as a positive example.

The point here is not whether he is guilty or not guilty. The point here is that it’s highly unusual in Thailand for a political officeholder to immediately quit once a scandal emerges. We could count with one hand who else had done like him.

If what Vorapak has done (resignation) was a norm, it would be way easier to combat corruption in Thailand, and the country’s politics would be way cleaner. Unfortunately, it was an exception. Many other ministers should have done the same. Who knows? Srettha Thavisin could have remained the prime minister.

There’s no such thing as biting half the bullet

October 22, 2025: Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras can still accommodate each other, and sink or swim as one.

In this scenario, Paetongtarn Shinawatra can still lead the Pheu Thai “family” (whatever that means), keeping one foot of the clan in the party her father founded. Thaksin Shinawatra can still resume being an active fatherly figure once his imprisonment issue is over. The party will still get their much-needed funding.

The problem is that Pheu Thai has been there before, and the party still lost to Move Forward (now the People’s Party) in the 2023 general election. Not decisively but shockingly all the same. And that was even before voters knew Pheu Thai would make a U-turn and join the conservatives to form a government.

Following Paetongtarn’s resignation as the party leader, Pheu Thai has three choices. It can re-install her or put another clan member in charge; or it makes a genuine overhaul in which Shinawatra influences are all but erased; or it tries to find a compromise that hopefully can lead to a productive co-existence.

Is the third scenario tenable or practical? It’s biting half the bullet so to speak. Thaksin Shinawatra’s shadow will still loom large whenever a major decision is needed, whenever an important Cabinet selection has to be decided in the future, or whenever a key policy like the Entertainment Complex is to be crafted, projected or implemented.

Other party members will say they are not listening to Thaksin any more, but as long as the main source of money is coming from the Shinawatras, everyone knows what to believe.

Pheu Thai is not like the Democrat Party in that Chuan Leekpai cannot say I want the party to do this and that and it does whatever he says. It is not like the People’s Party whose members still respect Piyabutr Saengkanokkul but are not treating his words like the Ten Commandments. Whenever the Shinawatras say, Pheu Thai obeys, full stop.

Suriya Juangroongruangkit and Paetongtarn both promised a party reform. How real will that be? Admittedly, Pheu Thai has a big dilemma, as the Shinawatras can be good and bad for the party, and their money is definitely crucial to its survival.

When it comes to Pheu Thai, “structure” has meant nothing, because in the end members always knew who to listen to. Biting the bullet means “structure” or party board now has to mean a lot, if not absolutely.

As far as Pheu Thai is concerned, there is no such thing as biting half the bullet. Either it bites the whole bullet or it swallows its pride and keeps the status quo.

Not everyone is laughing

October 21, 2025: Chuckle if you’re authoritarian or an easy-going democrat. Frown if you’re a serious advocate of democracy.

Donald Trump knew that there would be two types of people watching the short meme video he shared on Truth Social. One group will laugh, or smile, or simply shrug and then forget about it in no time. The second group will scream “How dare you share that insulting clip”.

What did he share? An AI-generated meme of him piloting a jetfighter dumping sludge on No Kings protesters. It was a funny clip if you are in the first group. It was insulting or naïve or totally improper if you are in the second. Some serious democrats also think that it’s possible that Trump was making a Freudian slip (Deep down he always wants to do like what is shown in the meme.)

Some think he is smart, as people criticising his decision to share can be seen as hypocritically decrying freedom of expression. Others say his Truth Social account is a presidential channel to communicate with his people, so sharing stuff like that is totally inappropriate.

“Trump’s response to ‘No Kings’ marches only proved the protesters’ point” said a CNN headline. The analytical article went on to bemoan “his growing hubris and belief that he has unchecked power.”

The article, however, admitted that it was a clever trick. Criticise it and you will be deemed to be prim and lacking a sense of humour, but laugh at it and you will agree with Trump trivialising the protests joined by millions accusing him of being an autocrat.

Watch the very short clip and decide for yourself.

Should rivals start worrying?

October 20, 2025: A Bhumjaithai by-election candidate has comfortably won. To other parties, here are good news and bad news.

Good news because Wisuda Vicheansil has only maintained a House seat won earlier by her father, Sakda, who had to quit Parliament to join the Anutin Cabinet as a deputy interior minister. In the Thai political context, political heirs often get a very good head start, so rivals shall not panic just yet.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who obviously couldn't look too overjoyed after the victory in Constituency 4 of Kanchanaburi, just played the piano during a celebration, it was reported.

Bad news (for the rivals) because she got more votes than her father, or more than 53,500 votes now compared with over 45,800 votes then. And she won in an environment in which the turnout was close to the 2023 national turnout.

More bad news for Pheu Thai is its candidate lost. Shinawat Maendet got over 36,500 votes. It was not a landslide for Wisuda but the victory was convincing all the same.

In 2023, the runner-up to Sakda is Lamyong Yimyailuang (Palang Pracharath Party), with over 27,000 votes.

So, some rivals may say “It’s just a by-election in a Bhumjaithai comfort zone.” Others may be thinking “Being paranoid in this case won’t hurt."

Amid “No Kings” protests, Americans’ dilemma lurks

October 19, 2025: The US has come to a point where some haters of Donald Trump are wanting him to succeed.

Such is the scale of what many global analysts believe is America’s “decline.” This year has seen several major setbacks for the superpower, and even some of Trump’s staunchest critics are accepting that losing totally to China now is worse than giving him some credit. That is because America needs to salvage its sinking reputation, even just a little bit.

The government shutdown, an Everest of state debts collapsing onto itself, a tourism crisis, Gaza, military parades, tariffs, the “Zombie town” where drug abuse is rampant, growing unemployment and homelessness and several other issues have massively tarnished the United States’ international image. Whispers about the “Deep State” are threatening to become distant thunders with some influential media personalities starting to talk openly about it. Rumours about Israel pulling the strings are not helping.

And now, the nationwide “No Kings” demonstrations. They have to do with much of the above, but they are hurting Trump’s rivals as well. If they want to dethrone him, at least they want to inherit a salvageable superpower reputation, not a totally-shattered one.

The political image is tied inseparably to America’s economic strength, which is badly wavering. More global doubts will nudge a lot of countries further and further away from the dollars and closer and closer to the BRICS alliance seeking to reshape the world’s economic order. Trump’s loss, therefore, is not just a Republican loss. Discrediting him can affect the whole country and the entire political spectrum including the Democrats.

It is a peculiar American crossroads indeed. Protests are not only affecting Trump. They are also telling the world that even many Americans do not like what their elected leader is doing, both internally and internationally. That is a bad advertisement for a superpower trying to keep an eroding global respect, prove to the world that its political system is one of the best, and tell the rest of the planet that its foreign policies were without a bad agenda.

Which is why, as far as anti-Trump media outlets are concerned, the Gaza “ceasefire” is being hailed as his achievement, why Ukraine-related criticism or mocking has subsided, and why his current and future talks with Russia’s Vladimir Putin are being painted as showing American muscles.

Democrats’ Hail Mary

October 18, 2025: It’s Thailand’s oldest political party’s last throw of the dice.

In making Abhisit Vejjajiva return as their leader, the Democrat Party is hoping for the kind of miracles and romanticism associated with a veteran boxer’s return to the ring. Abhisit will get some old fans excited, and probably attract new supporters, too. But will that be enough to revive a political camp that once saw winning fewer than 90 seats as a major failure?

His return is both good news and bad news. Good because he was at the helm during their best days, being a prime example of why the party’s leadership transition was healthy, unlike that of any other political party which was strictly controlled by particular clans like the Shinawatras or the Silapa-archas.

Bad because he was the leader during their “bad” days as well. It could be argued that, at the time, the Democrats nosedived politically because Abhisit was too “rigid”, refusing to accept the Thai political traditions of attending grass-root ceremonies hosted by people he did not really know, while keeping applying unbendable political principles that made him ideologically “right” at times and “left” at others.

It’s the latter trait (which was not necessarily bad) that confused voters. The Democrats would support Prayut Chan-o-cha one day only to have their leader tear him to pieces the next. As a result, “right” voters deserted the party while the left ones were not quite sure so they opted for a more obvious choice.

He is returning just when the Thai political environment is like him, ideologically hard to explain. And while the People’s Party (formerly Move Forward) ruled the 2023 election, the number of “undecided” voters was not as high as currently. The Democrats must be hoping that the difference will work in their favour.

The catch is that if it does not, the party will certainly die at the rock bottom. Returning to an old veteran is always double-edged. It can lead to a fairy-tale revival, or it can send a loud message that “We have nothing else left.”

“Peace deals” are little more than clickbait today

October 17, 2025: Confused about “peace” agreements that they are talking about? You are in good company.

You may also miss the days when peace deals were so sacred and honoured by everyone involved. And also the days when warring nations had just one between them.

It’s no longer the case. Nowadays, enemies keep signing and resigning peace agreements and breaking them later for fun. Third parties keep brokering peace, but some are bombing their targets themselves. Some peace deals have spectacular signing ceremonies. Some don’t. Some have too many. Some brokers are doing it for photo ops and awards.

In today’s world, peace deals are not lasting. To add to the problem, a ceasefire deal and peace deal are totally different things but they are being promoted or confused as the same thing.

The need to make it look bigger than it actually is has compounded the situation. Brokers want the biggest credit possible. The media want clicks. To all, declaring “Peace has arrived” is better than saying “We now have a highly-conditional ceasefire.”

As a result, the lifespan of any “peace deal” is getting shorter and shorter.

Why did we rarely do this?

October 16, 2025: A picture can tell a thousand words, or it can cut like a knife.

Imagine Bangkok government leaders officially meeting their Phnom Penh counterparts to talk specifically about the problem of scamming that many suspected originated from Cambodia. The former did not even have to spend hours in the air. They had much “inside” information. They had deeper connections than the Koreans with the Cambodians.

Yet here the South Korean ruling politicians are, holding a meeting with the Phnom Penh political elites at the first sign of troubles facing South Korean citizens that they think the Cambodian government could help solve. It’s more or less the same kind of problems ordinary Thais had for years and years.

The Cambodia-South Korea meeting photos are boring, but Thais need those boring pictures with their representatives in them. (Let’s forget the border talks or negotiations over energy resources for a while, because the Thai authorities have had no choice but to be active. Let’s focus on diplomatic meetings centering on the issues of the man on the streets where we tell the other side “Our people are having a problem the cause of which concerns you.”)

The South Koreans are smart, by the way. By seeking, and making the Cambodians accept, the high-level meeting on scamming, they are effectively telling the world “We have a problem and we have brought it to the Cambodians’ attention. If it persists, you know who to frown at.”

What’s wrong with human rights activists is …

October 15, 2025: They always say the right things. The problem is the lack of consistency.

If you are a human right activist, you have to be consistent. You don’t have the luxury of being able to turn a blind eye to one thing and put another thing under a microscope. Most importantly, you can’t take side, because in that case you are just a rhetorical company publicist disguised as moralist.

Trying to scare anyone is wrong. Criticising the frightener, or Kan Chompalang in this case, is right. And you don’t even have to say that Thailand should not spoil its “hero” image or copy any Cambodian wrongdoings. Human rights don’t have anything to do with images, which can be faked, by the way. Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it or which country commits it.

Human rights advocates criticising Kan have been asked where they had been when Thai soldiers and villagers were at the receiving end. They may be able to get away with the Gaza infamy because it has happened so far away and does not concern them directly. But some people may want to hear their opinions on the subject anyhow, because losing homes and loved ones must be much worse than hearing spooky sounds at night.

Why is it important that human rights advocates need to be consistent? They had to in the past, because their values can’t be applied or expressed selectively, but now is more crucial than ever. They are being under much greater scrutiny than ever before, with the western preaching under unprecedented questioning. Inconsistency will only magnify the impression that the advocacy is part of a global political propaganda, and consistency, absolute impartiality and genuine accountability are the only ways to endorse the worthiness of human rights adherence.

Has the “war” ended, or did it never happen?

October 14, 2025: When only one side used troops and bombs and kept pounding the other, it’s never a war.

So, the US-brokered “ceasefire” is curious to say the least. The sufferings of the Gaza people have lessened, the hostages have returned home and a massive number of Palestinians are trudging back to where their residences once stood, to where their now-dead wives once cooked and to where their now-dead children once played, and to an unknown future. Nothing much more than that.

We use “ceasefire” when both sides are firing at each other. The Thais and the Cambodians maybe. Or the Russians and the Ukrainians. “School fight” and “School bullying” are totally different. What do we call what has happened in Gaza?

US President Donald Trump, of course, called it a war, and he certainly must be proud of the “ceasefire achievement”. So, it’s up to what you think, but whatever your opinions are, what will happen next is less debatable.

Israel will continue to treat Palestine will extreme hostility with American backing. There are slim chances the next phase of the “peace deal” will succeed because what the rest of the world wants Israel and Palestine coexisting peacefully under a genuine two-state proposal that would give the latter proper independence, pride and sovereignty will never be accepted by Israel and the White House that only has a version of a new Riviera in mind.

There is hope, though, and it’s coming from growing public conscience putting more and more pressure on the powers-that-be. That conscience led to a huge pro-Palestine protest in London this week despite the “ceasefire”. That conscience is drastically swaying Europe, weighing heavily on the American public and demanding quick action from the United Nations.

The simplest that is the hardest

October 13, 2025: “Sufficiency Economy” requires so little but demands a lot.

Royal documentaries on the subject feature just four things: the green of veggies and crops, the dark brown of soil, the translucence of water, and the noises of a limited number of farm animals. Anyone who goes back to watch TV footages on Sufficiency Economy will see these four without fail.

King Rama IX’s idea is that if you manage to strike a good balance among those four, you will need little else. You will be able to rely on yourself. You will have just enough left to sell and have just enough money to keep it going. But, most of all, you will have ample and everlasting happiness, pride and dignity.

Where would “progress” come from that kind of lifestyles and ambitions? You may ask. How do we get railroads, airplanes, smartphones, space travels and all that?

It’s this question that makes a lot of people fail to look deeply into the ultimate picture that the King saw. Spiritual advancement that comes with it can be ignored in a world where materialism and capitalism rule, define wealth and happiness. He saw that “true progress” must come from real pride and dignity. In other words, “true progress” first and everything else will follow.

Critics or absolute opponents of his idea don’t have to worry, anyway. It’s the simplest but it’s also the hardest. The current unbreakable world order relies on how much profit businesses half the world away make, how bankers or fund managers whom you never know spend your deposits, and how a stock market clash can cause total misery.

To embrace his idea, people will have to forget supercars, luxurious home entertainment equipment or buying new phones every two years. Equally hard or harder still, if you support the idea, you mustn't turn the concept into some kind of a crusade that could cause unwanted devastation and disrupt everything. Of course, King Rama IX would have liked the whole world to cherish and implement his idea, but he never ever “crossed the line” in trying to promote it. If you like his thinking, fine. If you don't, it's the same deal.

The King did not tell you to denounce other economic systems. His “self sufficiency” concept must have formed largely because of the fact that Thailand is an agricultural nation. A truly efficient management of the resources growing from the face of the earth will help the country achieve real sustainability and keep famine at bay come what may.

To live a simple life, you need to step out of your comfort zone. Which is probably the most difficult thing. The green plants, the dark brown soil, the translucent water and the farm animals are not hard to put together, but the will to do so is tough to muster.

How long will he last this time?

October 12, 2025: Another resignation is likely, but it’s also not an option.

It sounds like a playful dilemma but it’s not. It’s France’s (or President Emmanuel Macron’s to be exact) messed-up political reality. He has reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister, days after the latter resigned from the very same post.

This means the president is telling the whole country that it should back Lecornu or he will go himself. The president is in effect telling all French people that he does not have any other choice, and that if they think anybody else does then he or she should be their new president.

Lecornu, 39, whose resignation was accepted on Monday just weeks after he took office, is now tasked with forming a new Cabinet after his previous line-up was criticised left and right, leading to his decision to quit.

The swift resignation was a shock. The reappointment was a bigger shock. Global analysts are anticipating the biggest shock.

In his resignation speech, Lecornu could not wait to go. Which makes his latest remark following the reappointment an absolute jaw-dropper.

“We must put an end to this political crisis that exasperates the French people, and to this instability that is harmful to France’s image and its interests,” he said on X.

“I accept – out of duty – the mission entrusted to me by the President of the Republic to do everything possible to provide France with a budget by the end of the year and to address the daily life issues of our fellow citizens.”

The reappointment did not feature in any of Macron’s three options in the wake of the resignation (appointing a new prime minister, or calling a snap parliamentary election, or resigning himself), and now literally every French politician is gaping at the president, who is authorised to name the prime minister for day-to-day executive affairs.

Now, if Lecornu resigns again, Macron can’t name a new prime minister, because he or she would unavoidably be seen as a lame duck stopgap. Calling a snap election would also make Macron lose all the credibility as he would be perceived as trying selfishly to maintain his status quo as long as possible. Resigning and the “Macronism” will finish for obvious reasons, because voters will be ascertained that any candidate mirroring his charisma, platforms or ideologies does not suit France.

As for Lecornu, he will have to deal with formidable parliamentary factions more determined than ever to bring him down.

As several French reporters put it, the reappointment had been unthinkable, so there is no trying to predict what happens next.

MOU controversy puts many on the spot

October 11, 2025: Nationalists don’t like them, the Cabinet is two-minded, and ideologies can complicate things for political parties.

Should Thailand revoke MOU 43 and MOU 44 that literally say Bangkok and Phnom Penh agree to disagree on border demarcations and will try to solve their problems peacefully while handling natural resources to the best of mutual benefits in the meantime? And if Thailand should do it, how?

The issues of sovereignty, the scopes of government and parliamentary authority (constitutional requirements) and the exact pros and cons of the MOUs will come into play. One wrong step, whether you are well-intentioned or not, can greatly affect political polarity before a general election that Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has promised would take place early next year.

In one of the latest interviews, Anutin was not clear-cut on whether it would require a national referendum. He only said “both chambers” of Parliament are looking into the matter. His comment was in response to popular Pita Limcharoenrat’s earlier question why revoking the MOUs could not be decided by elected representatives of the people.

Anutin’s apparent caution is understandable, but so is Pita’s question. The latter, however, may have forgotten that at a time like this, one controversial statement concerning national sovereignty can have a great impact on popularity, and a lot of MPs could be better off staying away from a public debate on the MOUs.

The leader of the People’s Party, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, echoing Pita, has just told Anutin that the two MOUs are too complicated for most Thais to understand, so the outcome of any referendum might not be truly reflective of what the Thai public really wanted. Natthaphong was right. The MOUs, which nationalists think acknowledge Cambodia’s French maps too much for comfort, are highly technical.

The Foreign Ministry recently insisted that the 2000 MOU is beneficial to Thailand, as it provides a framework and mechanism for joint border survey and demarcation, based on the Siam–Franco Treaties of 1904 and 1907, as well as related documents such as maps and records of past boundary commissions. But, as we know, pre-election politics and rationality sometimes clash.

Trump actually has dodged a Nobel bullet

October 10, 2025: No genuine peace advocate wants an award.

That is in addition to the fact that every single award divides opinions. That Miss Universe did not deserve it. The Oscar-winning movie is poorer than many of its competitors. If that shot had gone in instead of hitting the post we would have had another World Cup champion. The Pulitzer Prize has gone to a wrong winner. On and on it goes.

The point is divisiveness is anything but peaceful. And, especially, the Nobel “Peace” Prize should be associated with peacefulness, shouldn’t it, not one half of the world screaming “No way! This is a joke.”?

US President Donald Trump must have been disappointed with the announcement that he is not getting the Peace Prize, but he is lucky, in fact. If he truly wants to promote peace, he certainly must be opposed to a divide. And it’s more than certain that there would have been a massive, global divide if he had got it.

True peace lovers couldn’t care less. They are happy for others in complete disregard for themselves. Fake peace promoters are virtually bad salesmen with only selfish motivations.

Trump’s case was further complicated by the names of the people who had nominated him. If he had won, the “glory” would have been associated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu throughout history. What would Palestine have regarded Trump’s supposed neutrality, although the US president is saying everywhere he goes that he wants peace in the Middle East? Cambodia would also have sought credit, but how would Thailand have treated Trump’s Thai-Cambodian peace ideas?

To be fair to Trump, though, there shouldn’t be a Peace Prize in the first place. Even though the Nobel committee has gone for a lesser controversial figure this time, awarding a political personality the Peace Prize, specifically Venezuela’s María Corina Machado, rekindled the same old question of whether the “peace” award would ironically bring her greater risks.

Thailand lays down tough preconditions

October 9, 2025: Diplomatic difficulties multiply when national dignities and territorial disputes featuring different maps are involved.

Bangkok primarily wants four things if a solid peace deal is to be struck with Cambodia. None of the four demands is easy to accept.

Thailand will inform US President Donald Trump, heavily presenting himself as a peace broker coincidentally with the Nobel Peace Prize announcement drawing very near, of the four preconditions, according to Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

Let’s go over the Thai demands one by one.

First, Cambodia must withdraw all its troops from the border areas with Thailand. This is arguably the easiest of the four, but the Cambodian government can always ask “What’s wrong with placing our soldiers anywhere on our own land?”

Second, Cambodia must remove all Cambodian settlers from Thai territory. Doing that would mean Cambodia accepts that its people have been living illegally on Thai soil in blatant violation of the Thai sovereignty.

Third, Cambodia must earnestly suppress scamming operations on its land. Again, accepting this precondition would be tantamount to admitting that international scamming has existed on the Cambodian soil with Phnom Penh turning a blind eye.

Fourth, Cambodia must cooperate fully with Thailand in mine clearance along the shared border. Anyone who wrote this precondition probably didn’t read the news. Cambodia always vehemently denied that landmines were ever planted on the Thai soil. And, again, “What’s wrong with having landmines placed in our own territory?”

(All this doesn’t mean Thailand’s preconditions would negatively affect peace attempts. It only means the Cambodians would more or less put forth similar demands. In other words, “Admit your wrongdoings first and we can talk.”)

Trump’s real Nobel test

October 8, 2025: The US leader’s challenge isn’t about how to win the Nobel Prize. It’s how to react if he loses.

The world will see very soon. Knowing Donald Trump, everyone must be crossing his or her fingers. If he wins the Peace Prize, some may heave a sigh of relief, while others may scream, or laugh, or laugh and scream at the same time. If he misses it, well, nobody knows what is going to happen.

He can be gracious in defeat, or he can be a (relatively) subdued sour loser, or he can be a totally bad loser.

It’s anyone’s guess. What is a lot more predictable is what the Nobel Committee will decide. It’s true that some previous Peace Prize decisions were controversial, but they will definitely pale beside a Trump selection. In addition to the Gaza veto, he has sent warplanes into Iran without declaring a war, to start with.

Are those two things relevant and how? Trump is saying he’s brokering a peace deal between Israel and the Hamas, but critics are asking if it is too little and too late. Moreover, the crux of the matter is the “two-state” proposal that would give Palestine a lot greater independence and pride but which Trump has sidestepped while making the “peace” efforts.

As for Iran, he must be arguing that sometimes a little war is needed if the world is to get long-lasting peace. His critics say there is no way you use bombs to get a peaceful world, and that you can’t make threats to achieve a long-lasting harmony.

“Sustainability” is key. A prerequisite for the Nobel Peace Prize is sustainable peace. Anti-Trump critics are maintaining that nothing he has “achieved” will last.

How the Nobel judges see all these will be known this week. We will also know whether toys will fly out of the pram and possibly what kind of toys.

Danger of too many cooks

October 7, 2025: Sometimes “Democracy doesn’t work in the kitchen” applies to politics, too, but the French can’t help it.

Just when they need someone to bang the table and say “We are going to do it this way”, they instead send their latest chef packing. Sébastien Lecornu was their fifth prime minister in two years and he had not even started working yet.

To be fair, though, he, too, must share the blame for the spiraling political chaos following his record resignation this week. Every Cabinet line-up gets criticised. Threats of parliamentary parties torpedoing key bills are common even in the most stable politics. Anyone other than him, anyone in France, would face the same problems. He should have known that when he accepted the job with the support of President Emmanuel Macron. Lecornu could have said No. If he sincerely did not know what he was in for, probably France has dodged a bullet thanks to a very naïve man quitting early.

France is badly fractured politically, and a snap election, a likely alternative left for Macron, will very likely result in another hung Parliament, where everyone is eager to play a big role in the main course. There is a great possibility that what Lecornu has complained before the whole nation will materialise again.

In a brief speech outside the prime minister's residence which he had only stayed for less than a month, Lecornu bemoaned "partisan appetites" of political factions, who he said "are all behaving as if they had an absolute majority".

"I was ready for compromise but all parties wanted the other party to adopt their programmes in their entirety," he said.

Another alternative is Macron’s resignation that would trigger a presidential election and draw the curtain on the “Macronism”. (In France, the president appoints the prime minister, who answers to Parliament and who picks the Cabinet. In a rough analogy, the president is the chairman and the prime minister is the CEO, or the prime minister is the chef and the president is the restaurant owner.)

The third alternative is for Macron to appoint another chef. Problem is Lecornu was already largely considered his last resort, someone who can make the surging right and left-wing factions in Parliament work together while keeping ideologies in their lockers for a while.

Lecornu has failed. A lot of analysts are thinking Macron has failed, too. Many are calling for a snap election, which may give the chef more authority or, on the contrary, increase everyone’s temptation to cook.

That October 6 and this October 6

October 6, 2025: The difference is stark.

Thailand is marking one of its gloomiest days under totally ironic circumstances.

Half a century ago, political, social, economic and ideological factors divided the Thai public into the socialist-minded left on one side, and conservatives, the right, on the other. The former was anti-West and the latter looked for western support. Those were the days when capitalism was demonised by protesters and communism or Marxism were learning materials of young anti-state Thai activists, many of whom idolised China and the Soviet Union.

Both sides’ conflicts culminated in the tragic storming of the Thammasat University where many people died.

Today, capitalism is associated with democratic freedom whereas communism goes hand in hand with dictatorship. To think that many October 6, 1976 protesters went to the jungles to join communist “comrades” in order to seek “equality”, and life with the communists was once deeply romanticized is mind-blowing.

Absurdity aside, some universal truth never changes about October 6. It is the biggest evidence of how radicalism or extremism can tear social fabric apart. International politics played a significant role then and it still does now. At the time, analysts talked about such things as “the next domino to fall”, referring to an intense fight for global dominance, which led to absolute mistrust at all global levels. Now it is also about keeping the domino, and how Thailand marks October 6 must be watched internationally.

To mark October 6, 1976 is ironic in itself. While Thailand needs to remember one of its darkest days, it actually wants to lock October 6 up in the box of unwanted history. What happened was so repugnant that many are convinced that it can never take place again. Others, however, believe that its causes are great escape artists.

It could be tough guy vs gentleman in next election

October 5, 2025: The border dispute with Cambodia may shape Thai political parties’ election platforms.

The People’s Party versus Bhumjaithai is expected to be the highlight of the race, and both camps have significant differences when it comes to how aggressive Thailand should be regarding Cambodia.

Pheu Thai will be another big party torn between polite and bold treatments of the Cambodians. The second biggest party’s situation is further complicated by the controversial relationship between the Shinawatra and the Cambodian political elites.

Much will depend on the general sentiment in Thailand when the election is nearer. As of now, the Thai public seem to demand a “tough guy” approach, a situation that apparently favours Bhumjaithai, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

If the situation calms down substantially, the People’s Party’s softer, albeit more accommodating, stance can reduce Bhumjaithai’s advantage on the issue.

So, as far as Anutin is concerned, he may be thinking four months is too long.

Bangkok named in bombshell 9/11 claims

October 4, 2025: Two alleged perpetrators of the biggest terrorist attack on American soil in 2001 travelled under CIA-facilitated visas from Kuala Lumpur to Bangkok and from there they entered America, before 9/11 happened, claimed one of the most influential media figures in the United States.

The Young Turks media group, with more than 6 million subscribers on YouTube, said Tucker Carlson’s claims were “huge” and must be investigated. Carlson is one of America’s most vocal and influential journalists with a tenacious hard-hitting style and widespread connections. Formerly plying his trade in the mainstream media, he is now more of a social media influencer with a massive following.

His 5-episode 9/11 docuseries is being released to mark the anniversary of the shocking event in which thousands of Americans died and which changed US personal privacy and world diplomatic affairs and measures almost beyond recognition. The docuseries also represented the first time that a well-rocognised journalist has addressed a taboo subject of who actually perpetrated 9/11.

Millions of people have watched the docuseries on his YouTube channel and The Young Turks newscasters’ clips summarising it and commenting on it. Calls for the US government to clear the air are getting louder. Liking the unfolding development are the 9/11 “Truthers” who had undergone much condemnation for promoting a “conspiracy theory” that the Al-Qaeda group was just a mere scapegoat.

Truthers’ claims were more shocking. They blame it directly on “insiders”, saying buildings were brought down by controlled demolitions that required weeks if not months of preparations. But the “conspiracy theorists” will now be satisfied with the 9/11 “mystery” getting bigger attention, reinvestigation, and a big-name media personality firmly on the issue instead of devalued little voices.

While Carlson shockingly declared that the world knew little about 9/11 and possibly had been lied to, his bombshell content in fact leaves open a slight possibility that it could be an honest mistake in which the CIA recruited wrong “informants” who turned completely against America and unleashed terror in the process. He also practically left a little room for the likelihood of the CIA not telling the FBI everything simply because the former was too cautious.

But his claims were a big bombshell all the same, partly because what should have been included in the official government report was not. Having a former FBI man as his main source, he said there was clear evidence two alleged 9/11 suspects got their US visas apparently with the help of the CIA and, after attending a gathering in Malaysia, they flew to Bangkok before heading to America.

The Young Turks newscasters support asking “legitimate questions” and call for an end to the official “knee-jerk reaction” of labelling anyone who do so a “conspiracy theorist”. They say the 9/11 incident has spawned countless questions that should be answered by the US authorities and those who asked them only wanted proper answers instead of being told to “shut up”.

Such a furious reaction only fueled skepticism, especially at a time when America’s reputation is under a tough scrutiny, The Young Turks pointed out.

One of the questions concern Building 7, a tall structure in the World Trade Centre complex that a lot of people did not know also collapsed to its footprints on that fateful day without getting hit by a plane.

A government report blamed office fire, caused by burnt objects from the Twin Towers. The 9/11 Commission report said very little about Building 7.

A small group of Israelis allegedly recording building collapses somewhere near the scene were also mentioned in the docuseries, and The Young Turks warned that failure to address Carlson’s questions would fuel doubts about the US-Israel relationship especially in the Gaza affair. Such failure would amplify the question why America steadfastly supported Israel no matter what, it is said.

Anutin on American tariffs and Thai divide

October 3, 2025:The new prime minister is subtle about US import taxes and clearer on local political polarisation.

Giving a speech at an economic seminar at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre today, Anutin Charnvirakul politely suggested that if America lowered the taxes even more, it would be easier for both countries to talk about “other things.”

He thanked the Paetongtarn administration for bringing it down to 19% after its “utmost efforts”, but subtly said that the lower the better.

“The United States wanted both of us to reach an agreement that was mutually beneficial, be it for the sake of the economy or security,” he said. “I think all conditions can be discussed. Whether we can accept all of them is another matter. To me, if the tariffs are lowered further, it will make our decisions easier on their other advices.”

He chose his words carefully. But what he meant by “other advices” sounded like it did not concern trade.

He was relatively less ambiguous when talking about political divide, saying if Thais really wanted to end the national polarization, politicians will get the message and act accordingly.

Thailand’s economic progress is less tied to politics than everyone thought, he said.

“Thailand does have a future,” he said. “In politics, there have been disruptions, but if only we could just let politics take care of itself. All Thais need is unity and politics will take care of them. When people in the country do not need conflicts, politicians will dare not have (cutthroat) conflicts. Don’t let politicians lead you. You must lead politicians.”

As for himself, “I must have done good things (in the past life) and I will use this opportunity to do my best.”

Not too bad. What remains is walk the talk.

Govt shutdown: Political infamy with hair combed

October 2, 2025: What do we creatively call holding the public hostage? Government shutdown, that is.

The US shutdown is nothing serious, but the action betrays prescribed obligations of politicians on both sides of the aisle all the same. If you are a politician, you give your enemy inconveniences, but any effort to disturb your enemy must not affect the public, period. For this, both Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress have utterly failed.

And the shameful irony is that what led to the shutdown were proclaimed attempts to help the people. Both sides have argued about healthcare spending, and the Democrats have refused to back a Republican plan that they claim would make it harder for Americans to afford healthcare.

On the surface, such showdown over Obamacare (Democrats want immediate assurance of substantial subsidies but cost-cutting Republicans are saying we will debate that later) is over public interests.

Truth is it’s an ego fight. Every advocacy and non-advocacy of any programme can be characterised as “for the people”. The bottom line is that a political clash between the disagreeing politicians shall never cause grievances to the public.

Imagine a conflict between the Thai government and the opposition over the Entertainment Complex plan results in many state services halting and many state employees not getting their much-needed salaries.

Imagine mom and dad fighting and the kid having to walk to school, getting hit by a car on the way.

US President Donald Trump has blamed his Democratic rivals for the current public misery stemming from unsettled healthcare disagreements affecting government spending bills. They are blaming him back.

Both sides should be blamed, anyway, because the American public have nothing to do with their conflicts and failures to bargain or who flex what muscles.

Both parties had come up with a nice name for the betrayal of public obligations, though. They have been calling it a government shutdown, which happens once in a while in what some call “the world’s largest democracy” where every right of the citizens “is respected.”

US at crossroads on Israel

October 1, 2025: America and Israel are being pulled away from each other by their own political gravities.

Their youths, who will grow up to control politics, are polarised on Gaza, polls unambiguously show. Signs of Washington getting increasingly restless over what’s happening in the territory are in response to that, as well as to the gradual change of heart in Europe and to the growing ambivalence among older American politicians themselves.

Politico, a media organization with an American root whose content is always indicative of how political winds blow in the United States, has said in an article this week that an “entire generation” of Americans is turning on Israel. Which is in the opposite direction of how the new Israeli generation is thinking, it added.

American and western media growing more and more critical of Israel is no surprise. The increasing isolation of Israel also explains why Donald Trump will say one thing today only to contradict himself tomorrow.

According to Politico, atan April 2024 rally, Trump joined in with a crowd that was chanting “Genocide Joe,” originally a left-wing chant aimed at protesting Biden, whereas a month earlier during a Fox interview he criticized Biden for being “soft” and urged Israel “to finish the problem” in Gaza.

EvenPolitico virtually admits that when it comes to Israel, the Democrats and Republicans are not that different. Both camps, however, will soon have to review their policies, and Israel will be an issue that could make or break presidential ambitions in their next electoral clash.

And while the Republicans and Democrats review their Israel policies, they will keep what Politico said in mind. “Young people — on the left and right — are growing increasingly skeptical of Israel.”

They will also have to keep in mind that a virtually entire young generation of Israelis is supporting Netanyahu, meaning that whatever Israel is, it will unlikely change anytime soon.

But to Trump, the first test will come very soon, as the United Nations is pushing on more proper independence for Palestine. What his government has to say about it will not escape the attention of young voters in America, anxious to see which one between the Republican and Democratic parties has a more acceptable Israel policy.

Trump moreover is having to deal with media prejudices in his country. Some outlets not critical of Joe Biden when he was the American president allowing Israel to do what it did in Gaza have highlighted Palestinian plights like never before.

This paragraph fromPolitico tells much about complications and hypocrisies arising from the controversial US-Israel relationship: “The nationwide campus protests that sprung up against the war in Gaza have been the most obvious signs of youth discontent with US support for Israel’s war, and that largely stemmed from energy on the left. But such sentiment has been bleeding into the right, in part spurred along by Trump, who has made real inroads with younger voters and who was happy to seize on disaffection with President Joe Biden’s Israel policy.”

Those young Americans may call themselves “liberals”, but it’s harder than ever to tell liberalism and conservatism apart these days.

For example, in America, supporting Israel and you can be considered a conservative. Charlie Kirk, the slain leading pro-Trump activist, sent a private letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly before he died, offering to help push back an “information war” that he (Kirk) thought Israel was losing.

It is safe to say that if you are an American and you support Palestine, you can call yourself a liberal.

Elsewhere, it is not necessarily the case. In Thailand, for instance, anti-Israel voices coming from the country’s “conservatives” are noticeably louder than those from among the so-called “liberals”. In other words, if those pro-Palestine young Americans come to Thailand, Thai conservatives will welcome them with open arms.

(That’s one thing. Another thing concerns how time affects the meanings of the words. While “liberal” gives out the sense of newness, a “liberal” idea can actually get old someday. A conservative idea, on the other hand, can be long forgotten and then re-emerge or become reborn and be considered a liberal view in the future.)

As to which doctrine is more open to different thinking, let’s just say both camps have similar degrees of tolerance and intolerance. We have seen both “conservatives” and “liberals” believing only they are right and others are wrong. (The term “liberalism” indicates more openness than “conservatism”, but constantly there is evidence to the contrary.)

What is a key difference between young people in America and young people elsewhere regarding Gaza. Rebellious American youngsters don’t need Washington’s help for their cause, but many of their foreign counterparts do. Attacking Israel and bemoaning the Gaza atrocity can hurt America too, so a lot of them (foreign “liberals”) have refrained from it. This kind of dilemma has affected the United States’ European allies as well but with the innocent death and injury tolls mounting in Gaza and famine worsening, more and more are finding that they have no choice but snap out of it.

Daily updates of, and opinions on, local and global developments by Tulsathit Taptim