Consumer confidence rises, businesses remain wary

Thai consumer confidence has improved for the first time in four months, driven by declining global oil prices and the government’s latest ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ co-payment stimulus scheme, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).

Data released by the UTCC’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting reveals that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached 50.7 in June, an increase from 49.5 in the first four months. A sharp divergence remains, however, between public sentiment and business realities.

For consumers, state-backed stimulus measures have effectively injected liquidity into households, bolstering purchasing power. This, combined with cooling geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lower fuel costs, has provided a needed psychological lift.

Meanwhile, the Thai Chamber of Commerce Confidence Index (business sector) for June 2026 stood at 41.4, continuing its decline for the fourth consecutive month. This is because the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ measure has not yet positively impacted sales and, in its first month, it was unable to stimulate an economic recovery.

This is evident from the persistently low employment rate, coupled with the fact that the Thai economic recovery is experiencing K-shaped growth, expanding only in AI and electronic goods rather than trickling down to SMEs.

UTCC President Thanavath Phonvichai noted that the conflicting indices highlight fundamentally different economic perceptions between daily spenders and business owners.

In contrast, despite the government funneling 50 billion baht into the economy via the co-payment scheme, entrepreneurs argue the intervention is too small to offset skyrocketing operating costs.

If, however, the Middle East conflict does not escalate further, the government sustains the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ measure for four consecutive months and energy structures are adjusted, purchasing power is expected to improve significantly. It is believed that the Thai economy will start to regain momentum in the fourth quarter, potentially driving full-year economic growth to above 2%.

Regarding the US announcing the end of the temporary ceasefire and a new round of attacks on Iran two days ago, it is viewed that the situation might not escalate into severe, renewed clashes. Because the US has not deployed troops and is solely utilising drone strikes, there remains an opportunity for joint negotiations.

As a result, global crude oil prices are not expected to surge past US$80 per barrel. Therefore, it is predicted that the Thai economy will still be able to grow, as expected, by 2-2.5%.

If the conflict becomes prolonged, though, and both nations engage in heavy conflict once more, global crude oil prices could rise to $90-110 per barrel. This could impact the Thai economy, potentially confining this year's growth rate to below 2%, likely settling in the 1.5-2% range.