Trump’s comeback: buckle up

The unbelievable return of President-elect Donald Trump will impact on Americans and people around the world. By electing him, Americans have clearly supported Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral college.

In his first speech after his victory, he promised to "Make America Great Again," which means putting Americans first. For the rest of the world, fasten your seatbelt.

Over the next four years, Trump will push his vision of greatness, whether others agree. He aims to rebuild America, no matter the cost. What would be the guardrails under Trump’s second administration? It will be sooner than later to find out.

Trump’s win reflects the unique situation facing American society today. The country is deeply divided, caught between democracy and extremism. Issues like immigration, the high cost of living, rising defense costs and abortion are front and center.

For many minority voters, US support for Israel’s harsh treatment of Palestinians and the Ukraine war also adds to their discontent.

American voters are tired of smooth political talk. They want action, and Trump’s direct, often harsh style has gained him popularity and support. His bluntness has resonated with many, turning his exaggerations into what some see as hidden truths.

In this part of the world, he was a laughingstock. Now he is the leader of the world’s most powerful country, nobody can afford to make any condescending views of him without paying the price.

In the Indo-Pacific region, particularly Asean, there are lessons to be learned from Trump’s previous term (2016-2020). During that time, Trump took a selective approach, prioritizing Northeast Asia’s strategic concerns—especially the rise of China, North Korean nuclear threats, and trade imbalances—but paid little attention to Southeast Asia.

Unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, who emphasized close engagement with Asean through policies like the "Pivot to Asia," Trump viewed the region primarily through an economic lens. That could change given the shift in geoeconomic landscape in the past years.

A mix of trade protectionism and pragmatic security partnerships defined Trump’s approach to Southeast Asia.

Washington under Trump pulled out from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) days after his presidency. The trade deal was supported by several Asean members. This move frustrated several Southeast Asian countries, who saw the TPP as a potential pathway for regional growth and integration.

Instead, Trump focused on bilateral trade and transactional deals. Furthermore, he often pushed for tariffs or sanctions against countries he saw as contributing to the US trade deficit. Frequently asked questions will pop up next year.

Will Trump upend the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework proposed by the Biden administration in 2022? Will he host the postponed Asean-US summit, which was scheduled but later postponed in Las Vegas in 2022?

Despite limited focus, Trump did extend security support to Thailand. He maintained close ties with the Thai military, treating it as a critical partner in the Indo-Pacific.

He even welcomed then-Prime Minister Prayut Chan-Ocha to the White House, amid criticism at home. His administration also restored engagement with Thailand after the Obama administration distanced itself from Thailand following the 2014 coup.

By next year, it remains to be seen if Trump will engage more with Asean. He left a dismal record in his first term.

Meanwhile, the incoming Asean chair, Malaysia, has already invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the Asean-related summits next year. Just imagine, the prospect of Trump-Putin summit convened by Asean in Malaysia. It signals the region’s openness to balancing multiple global powers.

Trump’s return may ease the pressure on democratic values and human rights among American allies and friends, as he may prioritize domestic challenges and the country’s huge trade deficits with key partners.

During his first term, he valued Thailand's security ties with the U.S., as Thailand is one of the five Indo-Pacific allies. However, regional leaders may question whether his policies will bring meaningful attention to Southeast Asia beyond trade and countering China’s rise.

While Trump is unlike any other US president, Thailand should be ready for potential disruptions. Understanding Trump’s thinking of his security advisors will be key for Thailand in engaging Washington’s future policy and approach.