認識冒險挑戰俄羅斯統治菁英的反戰候選人

莫斯科，9月16日（路透社）——波琳娜・萊曼特（Polina Lermant）身後的數位看板正播放廣告，敦促俄羅斯人報名赴烏克蘭作戰；她則試圖向路人發放傳單，呼籲他們在週五開始的國會選舉中「為和平投票」。MOSCOW, Sept 16 (Reuters) - As a digital billboard behind her displays an advert urging Russians to sign up to fight in Ukraine, Polina Lermant tries to hand out flyers to passers-by urging them to "vote for peace" in a parliamentary election starting on Friday.

這是一項風險不小的行動。It's a risky enterprise.

24歲的萊曼特是在莫斯科代表俄羅斯自由派亞博盧黨（Yabloko）參選的候選人。亞博盧黨是俄羅斯境內唯一反對烏克蘭戰爭的登記政治力量。萊曼特表示，她擔心當局可能指控她違法並將她入獄；她的一些黨內同僚已遭遇這樣的命運。Lermant, 24, a candidate in Moscow for Russia's liberal Yabloko party, the only registered political force inside Russia to oppose the war in Ukraine, said she feared the authorities might accuse her of wrongdoing and jail her, a fate some of her party colleagues have suffered.

萊曼特在競選期間接受路透社訪問時說：「我真的很害怕。我的父母和丈夫都非常擔心我。我害怕鎮壓會開始。」"I'm really afraid. My parents and my husband are really worried about me. I am afraid that the repression will start," Lermant told Reuters in an interview as she campaigned.

她的資深黨內同僚列夫・施洛斯伯格（Lev Shlosberg）上個月因對戰爭的評論被判入獄11年；亞博盧黨副黨魁馬克西姆・克魯格洛夫（Maxim Kruglov）也在6月因類似指控被判入獄7年。Lev Shlosberg, a senior party colleague, was jailed for 11 years for comments about the war last month, and Yabloko's deputy leader, Maxim Kruglov, was jailed for seven years on similar charges in June.

萊曼特回憶，她的曾祖父在蘇聯時期因被判定詆毀紅軍，遭到從莫斯科流放至烏拉山脈；如今，批評戰爭的人也會因現代俄羅斯軍隊相關言論面臨同類指控。她說，恐懼已重返社會。Recalling how her great-grandfather was exiled to the Ural Mountains from Moscow in the Soviet era after being convicted of discrediting the Red Army, a charge now levelled against war critics over the modern Russian military, she said fear had returned to society.

她說：「真的很可怕，90年後，俄羅斯人民仍然害怕自己會被關進監獄，或是遭遇什麼事。」她指的是公開表達異議的空間愈來愈狹窄。"It's really terrifying that 90 years later people in Russia are still afraid that they will be jailed or that something will be done to them," she said, referring to the increasingly narrow space for public dissent.

克里姆林宮表示，戰時審查與全國團結至關重要，因為烏克蘭情報部門及其他敵人企圖在俄羅斯境內煽動動盪的行動愈來愈危險。The Kremlin says wartime censorship and national unity are vital because of what it says are increasingly dangerous efforts by Ukraine's intelligence services and other enemies to stir unrest inside Russia.

結果沒有懸念OUTCOME NOT IN DOUBT

萊曼特是亞博盧黨在莫斯科推出、參與這場為期3天選舉的約十多名候選人之一。這次選舉將選出450席國會下議院——國家杜馬（State Duma）議員；國家杜馬過去一向忠實通過克里姆林宮的倡議。Lermant is one of around a dozen candidates in Moscow from Yabloko running in the three-day election to the 450-seat lower house of parliament, the State Duma, which has a track record of faithfully approving the Kremlin's initiatives.

亞博盧黨希望俄羅斯同意在烏克蘭停火。克里姆林宮已排除此一可能，表示它要的是一項符合自身條件的全面協議。Yabloko wants Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Kremlin has ruled this out, saying it wants an overall deal that meets its own conditions.

這是總統佛拉迪米爾・普丁（Vladimir Putin）2022年派兵進入烏克蘭以來的首次國會選舉。在經濟承壓之際，當局將藉此衡量社會厭戰情緒有多深；目前俄羅斯面臨烏克蘭無人機攻擊造成的燃料短缺、高利率、勞動力緊縮以及西方制裁。The parliamentary election is the first since President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in 2022 and will be used by authorities to gauge the depth of society's war weariness when the economy is under strain — with fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, high interest rates, a labour crunch and Western sanctions.

對克里姆林宮而言，這也是一項它傳統上用來展現穩定的操作。For the Kremlin, it is also an exercise that it traditionally uses to project stability.

國營電視台播放的投票宣傳廣告中，先呈現俄羅斯歷代軍事指揮官，接著切到士兵在烏克蘭贏得一場戰役後高舉國旗的畫面，並打出標語：「他們的聲音就是勝利的聲音。你的一票就是俄羅斯的力量！」An advert being run on state TV urging people to vote shows Russian military commanders down the ages before cutting to soldiers holding up the national flag after winning a battle in Ukraine with the slogan: "Their voice is the voice of victory. Your vote is the strength of Russia!"

西方政治分析人士表示，在俄羅斯受到嚴密控制的體制下，這場選舉結果其實沒有真正懸念；克里姆林宮可能會宣稱選舉結果代表外界再次支持普丁及其對烏克蘭的行動。Western political analysts say the Kremlin is likely to tout the election's outcome - which in Russia's tightly controlled system is not in real doubt - as a fresh endorsement of Putin and his actions towards Ukraine.

支持普丁的執政黨統一俄羅斯黨（United Russia，UR）預料將輕鬆維持主導地位。The governing United Russia party (UR), which backs Putin, is expected to comfortably retain its dominance.

國會中另有4個政黨——共產黨、民族主義的俄羅斯自由民主黨（LDPR）、公正俄羅斯黨（Just Russia）以及新人黨（New People）——在重大議題上的投票方向大致都與統一俄羅斯黨一致，預料也會贏得連任。Four other parties in parliament, which all broadly vote in the same way as UR on major issues - the Communists, the nationalist LDPR, Just Russia and the New People party - are expected to win re-election too.

亞博盧黨因逮捕與入獄事件而遭受重創；參選雖讓它取得發表反戰立場的平台，但該黨不太可能贏得任何全國席次。Battered by arrests and jailings, Yabloko, whose participation gives it a platform for its anti-war views, is unlikely to win any national seats.

克里姆林宮鞋中的石子STONE IN KREMLIN'S SHOE

亞博盧黨曾是後蘇聯時期俄羅斯主要自由派力量；如今它在地方議會僅握有少數席次，在國會則沒有席次。不過，與自我流亡的反對派人士不同，亞博盧黨多年來一直在體制內運作。Once a leading liberal force in post-Soviet Russia, Yabloko holds only a handful of seats in regional parliaments and none in the national parliament although, unlike self-exiled opposition figures, it has for years worked within the system.

俄羅斯最高法院8月10日裁定多數亞博盧黨候選人違反選舉規則，使他們被禁止參選。萊曼特說，這項裁決是因為官方擔心亞博盧黨會進入國會，並就包括戰爭在內的議題提出棘手問題。Most Yabloko candidates were barred from contesting the election after the Supreme Court ruled on August 10 that they had broken electoral rules, a ruling Lermant said was prompted by official fears that Yabloko would make it into parliament and raise awkward questions about subjects including the war.

詆毀軍隊，或散播當局認定的假新聞，都可被處以長期徒刑。Discrediting the army or spreading what authorities regard as fake news are punishable with long jail terms.

在許多地區，拍攝烏克蘭無人機攻擊後的現場並上傳到網路，也屬於刑事犯罪。In many regions, filming and posting online the aftermath of Ukrainian drone strikes is also a criminal offence.

萊曼特最初是莫斯科仍留在選戰中的16名亞博盧黨候選人之一，因為他們參選的是單一席次選區，而不是以政黨名單方式競選。此後，她更多黨內同候選人也被取消資格。Lermant was initially one of 16 Yabloko candidates left in the race in Moscow because they were contesting single-mandate constituencies rather than competing on a party-list basis. More of her fellow candidates have since been disqualified.

儘管有所顧慮，萊曼特說，她強烈認為自己做的是正確的事。Despite her concerns, Lermant said she felt strongly she was doing the right thing.

她說：「對我們來說，告訴人們現在有機會為和平投票、表達自己的政治立場，並說出我們選擇和平與沒有恐懼的自由生活，真的非常重要。」"It's really important for us to tell people that there is the chance right now to vote for peace, to express their political position, and to say that we choose peace and a free life without fear," she said.

支持和平談判的比例上升RISING SUPPORT FOR PEACE TALKS

萊曼特表示，民調顯示今年公眾對和平談判的支持上升，這讓她受到鼓舞。她說，這顯示人們愈來愈能接受亞博盧黨的理念。Lermant said she was encouraged by polling showing public support for peace negotiations had risen this year. This, she said, showed people were increasingly open to Yabloko's ideas.

列瓦達中心（Levada Center）的民調顯示，公眾對和平談判的支持率超過60%；該中心已被當局列為外國代理人。Polling from the Levada Center - which the authorities have designated a foreign agent - put public support for peace talks above 60%.

萊曼特也提到，政府民調機構的數據顯示，在多數亞博盧黨候選人被禁止參選前，該黨支持率一直在上升。Lermant also referenced data from a government pollster showing support for Yabloko had been rising before most of its candidates were barred from contesting the election.

主要親政府民調機構的定期選前民調已不再納入亞博盧黨，使外界難以評估其人氣。這些民調機構過去通常顯示亞博盧黨支持率為低個位數。Regular pre-election polling by the main government-aligned pollsters no longer includes Yabloko, making it hard to gauge its popularity. The same pollsters have usually put its support in low single digits.

安東・馬利舍夫（Anton Malyshev）是在莫斯科另一區代表新人黨參選的候選人。他告訴路透社，他高度聚焦地方議題。新人黨是一個偏自由派政黨，稱其關注民眾與企業家的需求，並支持更自由、更有效率的國家。Anton Malyshev, a candidate in another part of Moscow for New People - a liberal-leaning party which says it is focused on the needs of people and entrepreneurs and favours a freer and more efficient state - told Reuters he was heavily focused on local issues.

他談到，公車路線變更時年長居民的擔憂，也提及一項構想：允許民眾正式購買個人化車牌，藉此為國家預算籌措資金。He spoke of older residents' concerns when bus routes changed and about an idea to raise money for the state budget by letting people officially buy personalised number plates for their cars.

馬利舍夫說，進入國會的政黨愈多愈好。他形容新人黨是真正的政治力量，反駁批評者所稱該黨只是用來分散年輕自由派都市選民票源、使他們較不可能考慮街頭抗議的工具。Malyshev said the more parties that enter parliament, the better. He described New People as an authentic political force, pushing back against critics who say it is a vehicle to siphon off votes from young liberal urbanites to make them less likely to consider street protests.

新人黨的黨綱除了表示多數俄羅斯人希望盡快締結長期和平，並稱國家必須在戰事結束後處於有利位置以實現繁榮外，避免對烏克蘭戰爭提出任何看法。這與克里姆林宮的立場大致一致，即按照莫斯科條件達成一項全面和解，才是唯一可接受的結果。His party's programme avoids offering any opinion on the war in Ukraine beyond saying most Russians want a long-term peace concluded as soon as possible and that the country needs to be well placed to flourish when fighting ends. This broadly aligns with the Kremlin's stance that an all-encompassing settlement on Moscow's terms is the only acceptable outcome.

當被問及是否能說明其政黨對這場衝突的看法時，馬利舍夫說，該黨關心的是如何最好地支持退伍軍人，並未提及戰場或全球外交上正在發生的事。Asked whether he could outline his party's thoughts on the conflict, Malyshev said it was interested in how best to support veterans and made no reference to what is happening on the battlefield or in global diplomacy.

他說：「我們更願意打造新的未來，談論前方的道路。透過我們的倡議，我們正在放眼未來。」"We prefer to build a new future and talk about what lies ahead," he said. "Through our initiatives, we are looking to the future."

（路透社報導；Mike Collett-White與Timothy Heritage編輯）(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)