烏克蘭戰爭推動歐洲需求：飛彈庫存要更大、成本更低

瑪麗亞・魯加默（Maria Rugamer）、麥可・卡恩（Michael Kahn）與蘇潘塔・穆克吉（Supantha Mukherjee）採訪報導By Maria Rugamer, Michael Kahn and Supantha Mukherjee

9月16日（路透）——在烏克蘭與中東的衝突暴露高階武器庫存規模有限的問題後，歐洲各國軍方正愈來愈積極探索成本較低的飛彈與攔截彈。Sept 16 (Reuters) - European militaries are increasingly exploring cheaper missiles and interceptors after conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East exposed the limits of small inventories of high-end weapons.

在歐洲東翼，俄羅斯每天對烏克蘭發動無人機與飛彈攻擊，凸顯了一項在和平時期採購規劃中常被忽視的教訓：現代衝突消耗武器的速度，可能快過許多國家補充武器的能力。Along Europe's eastern flank, Russia's daily drone and missile attacks on Ukraine have highlighted a lesson often overlooked in peacetime procurement planning: modern conflicts can consume weapons faster than many countries can replace them.

國際戰略研究所（International Institute for Strategic Studies）的道格拉斯・巴里（Douglas Barrie）表示：「如果你以為庫存裡的巡弋飛彈已經夠多，很可能其實不夠。」"If you think you have enough cruise missiles in your inventory, you probably don't," said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

分析師表示，歐洲國防產業多年來聚焦於少量生產精密武器，而非戰時規模製造；這使各國政府如今急忙尋求成本較低、可大量部署的系統，與洛克希德馬丁（Lockheed Martin）、MBDA和萊茵金屬（Rheinmetall）等公司的先進武器並用。Analysts say Europe's defence sector spent years focused on small production runs of sophisticated weapons rather than wartime-scale manufacturing, leaving governments now racing to seek lower-cost systems that can be fielded in greater numbers alongside advanced weapons from companies such as Lockheed Martin, MBDA and Rheinmetall.

業界主管表示，現在的挑戰不再是飛彈設計，而是建立維持現代衝突所需的製造產能。Industry executives say the challenge is no longer missile design but building the manufacturing capacity needed to sustain a modern conflict.

斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所（Stockholm International Peace Research Institute）研究員馬庫斯・席勒（Markus Schiller）表示：「大規模戰爭靠的是數量，不是神奇武器。」"Big wars are fought with numbers, not wonder weapons," said Stockholm International Peace Research Institute researcher Markus Schiller.

新一代國防新創公司表示，它們可透過研發為大規模生產而設計、成本較低的飛彈與攔截彈，協助滿足這項需求。A new generation of defence startups says it can help meet the demand by developing cheaper missiles and interceptors designed for large-scale production.

荷蘭6月向歐洲新創公司Destinus訂購700枚供烏克蘭使用的Ruta Block 2巡弋飛彈，合約金額為2.5億歐元（2.88億美元）；英國國防部則把Skyhammer攔截彈初始合約授予Cambridge Aerospace。The Netherlands in June ordered 700 Ruta Block 2 cruise missiles from European startup Destinus for Ukraine in a €250 million ($288 million) deal, while Britain's Ministry of Defence awarded initial Skyhammer interceptor contracts to Cambridge Aerospace.

愛沙尼亞國防軍告訴路透社：「鑑於自俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭以來戰場的演變，發展低成本但有效的武器系統很重要。」"Given how the battlefield has evolved since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, developing low-cost but effective weapons systems is important," the Estonian Defence Forces told Reuters.

現代戰爭的算術THE ARITHMETIC OF MODERN WAR

烏克蘭已建立分層因應方式。俄羅斯每月發射數千架長程無人機，烏克蘭以車載機槍、攔截無人機與電子作戰擊落其中許多架，藉此把更先進的攔截彈保留給較高階的威脅。Ukraine has already built a layered response, downing many of the thousands of long-range drones Russia launches each month with mounted machine guns, interceptor drones and electronic warfare to preserve more advanced interceptors for higher-end threats.

Cambridge Aerospace執行長史蒂文・巴瑞特（Steven Barrett）表示，俄羅斯單晚最多可發射900架Shahed型無人機。他說，若試圖用傳統攔截彈擊落這些無人機，就像美國有時在中東所做的那樣，「每晚會花費數十億美元……這對我們任何盟友來說都根本不可能承受」。Steven Barrett, chief executive of Cambridge Aerospace, said Russia could launch up to 900 Shahed-type drones in a single night. Attempting to defeat them with traditional interceptors, as the U.S. has at times done in the Middle East, "would cost billions of dollars per night … which is just impossible for any of our allies to sustain," he said.

飛彈公司Frankenburg技術長安德烈亞斯・巴佩特（Andreas Bappert）表示，未來系統必須把一次成功攔截的成本，從最高達2,000萬歐元降至約100萬至200萬歐元。Andreas Bappert, chief technology officer of missile company Frankenburg, said future systems must reduce the cost of a successful interception from as much as €20 million to around €1 million to €2 million.

烏克蘭新創公司Fire Point表示，其目標是打造一款成本低於100萬歐元的彈道飛彈攔截彈，約為美製愛國者防空攔截彈成本的四分之一至六分之一。Ukrainian startup Fire Point says it aims to build a ballistic-missile interceptor for less than €1 million, roughly one-quarter to one-sixth the cost of a U.S.-made Patriot air-defence interceptor.

洛克希德馬丁今年推出一款成本較低的愛國者飛彈。不過，即使其成本不到愛國者PAC-3的一半，仍高於新創公司的目標，且預計要到2028年才會投產。Lockheed Martin this year unveiled a lower-cost Patriot missile. But even at less than half the cost of a Patriot PAC-3, it would remain above startup targets and is not expected to enter production until 2028.

PAC-3的設計用途是擊落彈道飛彈與先進軍機；相較之下，許多新興低成本系統主要鎖定無人機、巡弋飛彈或其他較低階的威脅。業界主管與分析師表示，這些系統的目的在於補充高階防空系統，而非取代它們。Unlike the PAC-3, which is designed to defeat ballistic missiles and advanced aircraft, many of the emerging low-cost systems are focused primarily on drones, cruise missiles or other lower-end threats. Industry executives and analysts say they are intended to complement rather than replace high-end air-defence systems.

歐洲能生產足夠數量嗎？CAN EUROPE BUILD ENOUGH?

隨著新興飛彈製造商尋求擴大生產，投資人愈來愈支持這些公司。Cambridge Aerospace上月募得3億美元以擴大生產；Destinus則正尋求額外資金，為計畫中的首次公開發行（IPO）做準備。Investors are increasingly backing emerging missile makers as they seek to scale production. Cambridge Aerospace raised $300 million last month to expand production, while Destinus is pursuing additional funding ahead of a planned IPO.

Destinus創辦人米哈伊爾・科科里奇（Mikhail Kokorich）告訴路透社：「歐洲面臨的挑戰，不是技術不存在。更大的挑戰在於工業產能，也就是以現代衝突所需規模生產、認證並補充系統的能力。」"The challenge for Europe is not that the technology does not exist," Destinus founder Mikhail Kokorich told Reuters. "The bigger challenge is industrial capacity, or the ability to produce, qualify and replenish systems on the scale required by modern conflicts."

Cambridge Aerospace正投入大量資金，以確保火箭發動機與其他關鍵零組件供應，同時納入汽車雷達晶片等商用技術。Cambridge Aerospace is investing heavily to secure rocket motors and other critical components while incorporating commercial technologies such as automotive radar chips.

Fire Point使用製造合作夥伴網絡；Destinus則透過今年稍早宣布成立的合資企業，接入萊茵金屬的工業基礎。Fire Point uses a network of manufacturing partners, while Destinus has plugged into Rheinmetall's industrial base through a joint venture announced earlier this year.

Cambridge Aerospace目標是在明年第一季結束前，每月生產2,500枚攔截彈；Frankenburg則以每日最多100枚飛彈、2026年生產1,500枚飛彈為目標。Cambridge Aerospace aims to produce 2,500 interceptors a month by the end of the first quarter next year, while Frankenburg is targeting output of up to 100 missiles a day and 1,500 missiles in 2026.

業界主管表示，擴大生產不只取決於資金，也取決於能否確保零組件、取得核准並擴大製造流程。Industry executives say scaling production depends not only on funding but also on securing components, obtaining approvals and expanding manufacturing processes.

Fire Point希望在2027年年中前展示一次成功的彈道飛彈攔截，把執行長伊琳娜・特雷赫（Iryna Terekh）所說原本需要數十年的流程，壓縮到短短幾年內完成。Fire Point hopes to demonstrate a successful ballistic-missile interception by mid-2027, compressing what Chief Executive Iryna Terekh said would otherwise be a decades-long process into a few years.

Frankenburg執行長庫斯蒂・薩姆（Kusti Salm）表示，如果對手認定歐洲能迅速補充在戰鬥中消耗的飛彈，製造產能本身就可能形成嚇阻。Frankenburg Chief Executive Kusti Salm said manufacturing capacity itself could become a deterrent if adversaries concluded Europe could rapidly replace missiles consumed in combat.

他告訴路透社：「如果敵人知道我們能夠大規模生產……這個算式會告訴他，我達不到我的目標。」"If the enemy knows that we can produce en masse … the equation tells him, I'm not going to reach my objectives," he told Reuters.

（1美元 = 0.8671歐元）($1 = 0.8671 euros)

（瑪麗亞・魯加默自格但斯克、麥可・卡恩自布拉格採訪報導。麥克斯・亨德（Max Hunder）補充報導。馬特・斯卡芬（Matt Scuffham）與馬克・波特（Mark Potter）編輯）(Reporting by Maria Rugamer in Gdansk and Michael Kahn in Prague. Additional reporting by Max Hunder. Editing by Matt Scuffham and Mark Potter)