分析：加密貨幣法案受挫，顯示產業政治機器的影響力有限

作者：漢娜・蘭（Hannah Lang）、蜜雪兒・普萊斯（Michelle Price）By Hannah Lang and Michelle Price

華盛頓，9 月 16 日（路透社）—— 美國參議院在民主黨與少數共和黨人持續反對下，表決否決推進一項重大加密貨幣法案，這是該產業最重大的挫敗之一，也顯示其在華盛頓政治影響力的極限。WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate's vote against advancing a major crypto bill amid persistent opposition from Democrats and a handful of Republicans marks one of the most significant setbacks for the industry, showing the limits of its muscle in Washington.

參議員週二以 49 票對 50 票否決推進《明確法案》（Clarity Act）。該法案將為規模 2 兆美元的加密貨幣市場建立監管架構，使產業取得更穩固的法律基礎；共有 4 名共和黨人投下反對票。加密貨幣公司表示，這項法案對它們在美國的未來至關重要。Senators on Tuesday voted 49-50 against advancing the Clarity Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for the $2 trillion cryptocurrency market, putting the industry on a firmer legal footing, with four Republicans voting against. Crypto companies say the bill is crucial to their future in the U.S.

這次挫敗發生在該產業已為 2024 年和 2026 年選舉合計投入逾 3 億美元之後。加密貨幣業者透過讓數十名友善加密貨幣的候選人當選，以及全國性倡議活動，推動加密貨幣政策進入政治主流。The defeat came even after the industry spent more than $300 million combined on the 2024 and 2026 elections to push crypto policy into the political mainstream by getting dozens of crypto-friendly candidates into office and through national advocacy campaigns.

分析師、企業主管和學者表示，週二的失利顯示，即使是加密貨幣政治機器，在面臨足夠多政治挑戰時也可能受挫；不過，由於其資金庫仍約有 1.3 億美元，這股勢力不太可能沉寂太久。Tuesday's defeat showed that even the crypto political machine can stumble when faced with enough political challenges, although with a roughly $130 million war chest remaining it's unlikely to be down for long, said analysts, executives and academics.

他們表示，在這次事件中，美國總統川普（Donald Trump）的個人加密貨幣交易，正逢民主黨在 11 月期中選舉前前景改善之際，成為民主黨人的引爆點；同時，具影響力的銀行業遊說團體強烈反對，使談判被拖入選季更深處，也成功拉走部分共和黨人。民主黨可能在 11 月贏得眾議院，但參議院控制權之爭仍難分勝負。In this case, U.S. President Donald Trump's personal crypto dealings became a flashpoint for Democrats just as their prospects improved ahead of the November midterms, while fierce opposition from the influential banking lobby dragged talks deeper into election season and also succeeded in peeling off some Republicans, they said. Democrats are likely to win the House in November, although the race for Senate control is too close to call.

Capital Alpha Partners 董事總經理伊恩・卡茲（Ian Katz）表示：「這裡的政治形勢略有變化，使民主黨人投反對票變得比較不困難。我認為他們覺得，或許不必像過去那樣害怕加密貨幣遊說團體和競選資金。」"The politics here changed slightly in a way that made it less difficult for the Democrats to vote against it," said Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners. "I think they feel like maybe they don't need to fear the crypto lobby and campaign money as much as they have."

雖然週二的表決屬於程序性質，但外界普遍視其為決定該法案命運的試金石。加密貨幣產業誓言將繼續奮戰，力求讓法案起死回生。While Tuesday's vote was procedural, it was widely seen as a litmus test that would determine the bill's fate. The crypto industry vowed to keep fighting to revive it.

加密貨幣平台 Anchorage Digital 政策主管凱文・維索基（Kevin Wysocki）表示：「這個產業將繼續倡議支持加密貨幣的政策。這代表要支持挺加密貨幣的候選人，不論他們屬於左派、右派或中間派。」"The industry is going to continue to advocate for pro-crypto policy. That means supporting pro-crypto candidates, whether they're on the left, right, in the center," said Kevin Wysocki, head of policy at crypto platform Anchorage Digital.

川普交易使民主黨人立場更加堅定TRUMP DEALINGS STIFFENED DEMOCRATS' RESOLVE

該法案旨在判定哪些加密貨幣適用證券法或商品法，以解決產業所稱的法律模糊問題。The bill aims to fix what the industry says is legal ambiguity by determining which cryptocurrencies fall under securities or commodities laws.

加密貨幣業界一直主張，這類立法將在保護消費者的同時，維護美國創新與就業，而且這項說法往往奏效。該產業在 2024 年的支出，協助促成一個友善加密貨幣的白宮，以及願意支持其立法議程的國會，進而促成去年的《GENIUS 法案》（GENIUS Act），為美元支持代幣更廣泛採用鋪路。The sector has argued, often successfully, that such legislation would safeguard American innovation and jobs, while protecting consumers. Its 2024 spending helped usher in a crypto-friendly White House and a Congress willing to champion its legislative agenda, leading to last year's GENIUS Act paving the way for greater adoption of dollar-backed tokens.

該法律獲得兩黨支持；許多民主黨人原則上也支持類似《明確法案》的法案，前提是其中納入足夠保障措施，包括限制公職人員從數位資產獲利。但分析師和遊說人士表示，隨著川普本人加密貨幣事業的獲利情況愈來愈明朗，加密貨幣產業難以圍繞《明確法案》建立兩黨共識。That law was bipartisan and many Democrats also supported a Clarity-style bill in principle, provided it had sufficient safeguards, including restrictions on officeholders profiting off digital assets. But the crypto industry struggled to build bipartisan consensus around Clarity as the profitability of Trump's own crypto ventures became clearer, analysts and lobbyists said.

相關人士表示，川普 6 月申報來自其家族加密貨幣事業的收入超過 14 億美元，促使民主黨人更加堅定推動對公職人員限制採取更嚴格文字的決心。白宮最終同意多項限制，但民主黨人表示，這些限制仍不夠充分。In June, Trump reported more than $1.4 billion in income from his family's crypto ventures, stiffening Democrats' resolve to push for tougher language on officeholder restrictions, said the people. The White House ultimately agreed to several restrictions but Democrats said they didn't go far enough.

Stifel 華盛頓政策首席策略師布萊恩・加德納（Brian Gardner）表示：「這個產業面臨的挑戰是，這已經成為黨派議題。對政治左派而言，加密貨幣幾乎已變得……與川普本人高度綁在一起，這讓許多民主黨人覺得碰不得。」"The challenge for the industry is that this has become a partisan issue," said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel. "For the political left, crypto has almost become… very tied to Trump personally, and that makes it too hot to touch for many Democrats."

白宮發言人未立即回應採訪請求。A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

銀行業遊說戰拖延談判BANK LOBBY FIGHT DRAGGED OUT TALKS

加密貨幣產業也遇上了旗鼓相當的對手：經驗老到的銀行業遊說團體。銀行業者主張，法案中的一項條文可能為存款帶來競爭，進而損害放款。該產業動員其既有的全國性網絡，也就是數以千計的社區銀行業者，反對這項文字，並協助拖延談判。銀行業者週二表示，將繼續推動有針對性的政策修正。The crypto industry also met its match in the seasoned banking lobby, which argued a provision in the bill could create competition for deposits, hurting lending. The sector mobilized its established national network of thousands of community bankers to fight that language, helping to drag out talks. Banks on Tuesday said they will continue working for targeted policy changes.

由 Coinbase 支持的倡議團體「與加密貨幣站在一起」（Stand With Crypto）一直試圖建立自己的全國性運動。Stand With Crypto, an advocacy group backed by Coinbase, has been trying to build its own national movement.

該組織主任梅森・萊諾（Mason Lynaugh）8 月接受路透社訪問時表示，加密貨幣是一個正在興起的投票群體。他在週二的聲明中表示，如今已經清楚哪些國會議員「反對我們」，而其成員將據此投票。Speaking to Reuters in August, its director Mason Lynaugh said crypto is an emerging voting bloc. In a Tuesday statement, he said it was now clear which lawmakers "are against us," and that its members would vote accordingly.

不過，一些民調顯示，加密貨幣政策並非多數選民的優先事項，該產業在華盛頓的影響力實際上可能反而令人反感。《Politico》4 月的一項民調發現，只有 18% 受訪者表示希望國會議員優先處理加密貨幣規則，遠低於其他熱門議題，例如比例接近 50% 的可負擔住宅。Still, some polls suggest crypto policy is not a priority for most voters and that the industry's Washington influence may actually be a turnoff. An April Politico poll found just 18% of respondents said they want lawmakers to prioritize crypto rules — far behind other hot-button issues, such as affordable housing at nearly 50%.

在一些民主黨初選中，進步派候選人已成功攻擊對手與加密貨幣產業的關係。In some Democratic primaries, progressive candidates have successfully attacked opponents over their ties to the crypto industry.

民主黨籍參議員伊莉莎白・華倫（Elizabeth Warren）在表決前的媒體電話會議中，被路透社問及加密貨幣相關支出時表示：「拿了很多加密貨幣資金的候選人，最後還是沒有過關。」"Candidates who had a lot of crypto money still didn't make it," said Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, when asked by Reuters about crypto spending during a media call ahead of the vote.

「美國人民喜歡聽到候選人說：『我不會被收買。』」"The American people like to hear from a candidate who says, 'I can't be bought.'"

（蜜雪兒・普萊斯、漢娜・蘭報導；尼克・齊明斯基編輯）(Reporting by Michelle Price and Hannah Lang;Editing by Nick Zieminski)