美國態度保留之際，委內瑞拉反對派領袖馬查多考慮返國

9月16日（路透社）——4名反對派消息人士與2名政治分析人士表示，委內瑞拉反對派領袖瑪麗亞・柯麗娜・馬查多正面臨愈來愈大的兩難：在川普政府對她返國態度保留之際，她該何時從海外返回委內瑞拉，以凝聚支持。Sept 16 (Reuters) - Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado faces a growing dilemma over when to return home from abroad to rally support amid reticence from the Trump administration about her homecoming, four opposition sources and two political analysts said.

馬查多去年底離開委內瑞拉領取諾貝爾和平獎；在此之前，自2024年一場具爭議的選舉以來，她大多過著躲藏生活。她一再承諾會返國，包括在美國1月罷黜總統尼古拉斯・馬杜洛（Nicolas Maduro）後，以及6月發生兩起地震後。不過，美國官員在地震後私下要求她延後返國。Machado left the country late last year to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, after largely living in hiding since a contested 2024 election. She has repeatedly promised to return, including after the U.S. ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in January and twin earthquakes in June. But U.S. officials have privately asked her to delay her return after the quakes.

馬查多是否返國，可能重塑委內瑞拉政治局勢。目前在美國支持下、旨在選舉前重塑政治體制的談判，並未納入她的運動。雖然在與委內瑞拉相關的政治人物中，她的支持率最高，但上月支持度下滑。The question of Machado's return could reshape the political landscape in Venezuela, where U.S.-backed talks aimed at remaking the political system ahead of elections do not include her movement. Though she commands the highest approval rating among political figures connected to Venezuela, her support slipped last month.

4名反對派消息人士表示，馬查多會返國，但尚未敲定日期。其中一人補充說，現人在巴拿馬的馬查多計畫先前往美國，不過行程尚未確定。Four opposition sources said Machado will return, but no date has been set. One added that the leader, currently in Panama, plans to travel to the United States beforehand, although no itinerary has been established.

一名接近馬查多的消息人士說：「她會回來。她會去美國，但不是去請求許可。」這名人士並補充說，馬查多返國後的重點將是推動公平選舉。"She is going to return. She'll go to the United States, but not to ask for permission," said one source close to Machado, adding Machado's focus upon her return would be to push for fair elections.

早在馬杜洛下台之前，馬查多就試圖爭取美國總統唐納・川普（Donald Trump）成為盟友。但自馬杜洛下台後，川普一再表示支持臨時總統德爾西・羅德里格斯（Delcy Rodriguez）；羅德里格斯是馬杜洛的前副手。川普也稱讚美國政府與大型能源公司達成的石油協議。Machado sought to cultivate U.S. President Donald Trump as an ally well before Maduro's removal. But since the ouster, Trump has repeatedly expressed support for interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro's former deputy, and hailed oil deals by the U.S. government and major energy companies.

現在談選舉還太早：川普TOO SOON FOR ELECTIONS: TRUMP

川普本月表示，現在考慮民主選舉還太早。Trump said this month it is too soon to consider democratic elections.

馬查多的長期盟友、美國國務卿馬可・盧比歐（Marco Rubio）在9月一場訪談中表示，雖然她完全有權返國，但她在組織委內瑞拉僑民方面正扮演重要角色。Machado's longtime associate, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said in a September interview that while she had every right to return, she was playing an important role organizing the Venezuelan diaspora.

一名要求匿名的政治分析人士說，美國擔心，如果馬查多返國並號召支持者施壓，要求馬杜洛時期官員下台，她可能會擾亂美國的過渡計畫。被問及馬查多返國時機時，美國國務院一名發言人拒絕討論私下談話內容。The U.S. worries Machado could disrupt its transition plans if she were to return and rally supporters to push for Maduro-era officials to leave power, said one political analyst, who asked not to be named. Asked about the timing of Machado's return, a State Department spokesperson declined to discuss private conversations.

在美國支持下，反對派一個派系與臨時政府之間的談判預定本週恢復。這些談判旨在最終舉行選舉前，重塑該國政治體制。U.S.-backed talks between a faction of the opposition and the interim government, aimed at remaking the country's political system ahead of eventual elections, are set to resume this week.

雖然另一名接近馬查多的消息人士表示，她曾提議由自己主導談判，但美國轉而支持2015年國會的領袖；美國承認該屆國會是經民主選舉產生。到目前為止，談判並未納入馬查多的政治運動。Though another source close to Machado said she had proposed leading negotiations herself, the U.S. instead backed the leader of the 2015 legislature, which it recognizes as democratically elected, and the talks so far do not include Machado's political movement.

對於她可能返國、她與美國的關係或談判一事，馬查多未回應採訪請求。Machado did not respond to a request for comment about her possible return, her relationship with the U.S. or the negotiations.

委內瑞拉資訊部未回應採訪請求。Venezuela's information ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

馬查多聲望下滑MACHADO'S POPULARITY SLIPS

馬查多2024年競選時走遍全國，呼籲恢復民主，吸引大批群眾。Machado commanded huge crowds while campaigning in 2024, as she traveled around the country calling for a return to democracy.

她領導的反對派聯盟表示，該聯盟已在網路上公布多數票箱層級的得票統計，並稱自己贏得67%的總統選票。官方結果顯示馬杜洛勝選，國際觀察員對此提出質疑；政府從未公布詳細開票統計，而該國最高法院支持馬杜洛。The opposition coalition she led, which posted most ballot-box-level vote tallies online, says it won 67% of the presidential vote. Though international observers questioned the official results, which showed a win for Maduro, the government never published detailed tallies and the country's top court backed Maduro.

在AtlasIntel與彭博（Bloomberg）每月進行的Latam Pulse調查中，馬查多在15名與委內瑞拉相關的政治人物中支持率最高，名單包括川普與羅德里格斯；但她的支持度在8月從7月高點72%降至53%。Machado has the highest approval rating among 15 political figures connected to Venezuela — including Trump and Rodriguez — in the monthly Latam Pulse survey by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, but her support dipped in August to 53% approval from a high of 72% in July.

AtlasIntel執行長安德烈・羅曼（Andrei Roman）在X上表示：「地震後瑪麗亞・柯麗娜獲得的正面助力，已在不確定性升高之際消退。她所承諾的改變，至少在公眾想像中，似乎愈來愈遙不可及。」「即使這不是她的錯，當前情勢仍正在影響她的公信力，以及她打造多數委內瑞拉人在馬杜洛下台後所想像未來的能力。」"The positive boost Maria Corina received after the earthquake has faded amid growing uncertainty. The changes she promised, at least in the public imagination, seem increasingly out of reach," AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman said on X. "Even if it is not her fault, the current situation is affecting her credibility and her ability to build the future most Venezuelans envisioned after Maduro's removal."

一名不屬於馬查多派系的反對派人士表示，馬查多曾說她會在地震後返回委內瑞拉，後來卻沒有成行，這將使她付出政治代價；這名人士並補充說，她與華府的關係令人不自在。Machado will pay a political price for saying she would return to Venezuela after the earthquakes, then not doing so, said one opposition figure who is not part of Machado's faction, adding that her relationship with Washington is uncomfortable.

「這不是容易的處境。」"It's not an easy situation."

這些地震造成至少6500人死亡，另有數千人失蹤。The quakes killed at least 6,500 people and thousands more are missing.

54歲的馬拉開波金屬工人、地方反對派組織者加布里埃爾・艾南德茲（Gabriel Hernandez）等公車時表示，儘管馬杜洛已下台，川普也達成石油協議，委內瑞拉人仍受公共服務不穩定與醫療照護不佳所苦。Despite Maduro's ouster and Trump's oil deals, Venezuelans still suffer patchy public services and poor healthcare, said Maracaibo metal worker and local opposition organizer Gabriel Hernandez, 54, as he waited for a bus.

他說，民眾會準備好走上街頭支持馬查多。People would be ready to take to the streets to back Machado, he said.

艾南德茲說：「我們都在等瑪麗亞・柯麗娜回來。在這個高度不確定的情勢中，我們需要那位被我們寄予信任的人掌舵；而這只有在她親自在這裡，接著舉行選舉時才可能發生。」「毫無疑問，我們會與她一起走上街頭，確保她成為候選人、勝選者，以及這個國家的總統。」"We're all waiting for Maria Corina to return. We need the person we have placed our trust in to take the reins in this highly uncertain situation, and that can only happen with her presence here and then elections," Hernandez said. "Without a doubt, we would take to the streets with her and ensure that she becomes the candidate, the winner and the president of this country."

（路透社報導；羅德・尼克爾編輯）(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Rod Nickel)