共和黨透過選區重劃，恐讓自己陷入德州規模的拉丁裔難題

（更正第三段川普的支持率）(Corrects Trump's approval rating in paragraph three)

記者 David Hood-Nuño、Evan GarciaBy David Hood-Nuño and Evan Garcia

路透德州唐娜9月23日電——德州南部在平坦地景中展開，一段段漫長公路穿越其間，沿途點綴著抽油機、牧豆樹，以及標示著選民直呼不該這麼高油價的加油站。這片地區在2024年大幅倒向唐納・川普（Donald Trump），但到了2026年可能再度轉向。DONNA, Texas, Sept 23 (Reuters) - South Texas unfurls in long stretches of highways across flat landscapes dotted with pump jacks, mesquite trees, and gas stations sporting prices that voters swear should not be this high. This territory swung heavily to Donald Trump in 2024 — but may shift again in 2026.

路透從聖安東尼奧郊區出發，穿越歷史悠久、幅員遼闊的牧場地帶，前往邊境城市麥卡倫，行程超過360英里（580公里），訪問30多名拉丁裔選民。他們傳達出相似心聲：在這片皮卡與墨西哥式烤牛肉是日常主角的廣大地區，川普擔任總統後本有機會降低各項物價，卻沒有做到。From the outskirts of San Antonio, through historic, sprawling ranchlands to the border city of McAllen, Reuters traveled more than 360 miles (580 km) and spoke to more than 30 Latino voters, who shared a similar refrain: as President, Trump had a chance to lower prices across this expanse, where trucks and beef barbacoa are king, and failed.

許多人不再相信共和黨會照顧像他們這樣的人。對經濟壓力及川普移民議程的不滿正在升高，暴露出共和黨官員原本寄望能在拉丁裔美國人之間形成持久政治重組的裂痕。根據最新路透/益普索民調，川普全國支持率已降至32%，為他重返白宮以來最低。Many are no longer convinced the Republican Party is looking out for people like them. Frustration over economic pressures and Trump's immigration agenda is rising, exposing cracks in what Republican officials hoped was a durable political realignment among Latino Americans. Trump's approval rating nationwide has fallen to 32%, the lowest since returning to office, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

這種不確定性對德州共和黨人構成難題。他們去年重新劃分國會選區時押注，協助川普贏得2024年勝選的拉丁裔選民群體，將繼續留在共和黨陣營。That uncertainty poses a problem for Texas Republicans, who redrew congressional maps last year betting the Latino contingent who helped power Trump's 2024 win would remain in their column.

無黨派選情預測機構庫克政治報告（Cook Political Report）的選舉分析師大衛・瓦瑟曼（David Wasserman）表示，如今他們正面對一個問題：這個以搖擺不定著稱的選民群體，是否會像在全美其他地區的非大選年選舉和補選中一樣，在孤星之州重新倒向民主黨。Now, they're grappling with whether this notoriously swingy voting group may snap back to Democrats in the Lone Star State as they have in other parts of the country in off-year and special elections, said David Wasserman, elections analyst at the nonpartisan forecaster Cook Political Report.

德州共和黨人在2026年選舉前試圖讓數個選區更有利於本黨候選人，其調整依據是川普2024年的表現——這是本世紀共和黨總統候選人在拉丁裔選民中取得的最強表現。許多新劃設的選區並未稀釋拉丁裔投票力量，而是仍以拉丁裔為主，包括德州第15與第35國會選區。Texas Republicans sought to make several districts more favorable to their candidates ahead of the 2026 elections, basing their changes on Trump's 2024 performance, the strongest showing among Latino voters by a Republican presidential candidate this century. Rather than dilute Latino voting power, many of the newly configured districts remained heavily Latino, including Texas' 15th and 35th Congressional Districts.

根據德州的選區重劃分析，在第15選區，拉丁裔占具公民身分投票年齡人口的74.5%；第35選區則占51.6%。然而兩個選區都變得更具競爭性，選情預測網站「薩巴托水晶球」（Sabato's Crystal Ball）將第15選區評為勝負難料，第35選區評為共和黨略占優勢。庫克政治報告則將第15選區評為共和黨略占優勢。In District 15, Latinos account for 74.5% of the citizen voting-age population. In District 35, they make up 51.6%, according to the state's redistricting analysis. Yet both districts have become more competitive, with political prognostication site Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the 15th District a Toss-up and the 35th District Lean Republican. Cook Political rates the 15th Lean Republican.

德州南方大學（Texas Southern University）2026年8月民調顯示，民主黨國會候選人在德州南部3個選區領先，其中包括第15選區。路透訪問近50名分析師、倡議人士、民調專家及選民，也支持一種看法：德州南部部分曾投給川普的拉丁裔選民，看來願意考慮民主黨人。An August 2026 Texas Southern University poll found Democratic congressional candidates leading in three South Texas districts, including the 15th. Interviews with almost 50 analysts, activists, pollsters and voters back up the idea that some Latinos in South Texas who voted for Trump appear open to Democrats.

其中一人是住在麥卡倫、現年53歲的索爾・瓜哈多，他曾3度投票給川普。One of those is Saúl Guajardo, 53, of McAllen, who voted for Trump three times.

他說：「我以前是保守派，很右翼。現在我比以往任何時候都更願意投給民主黨。」“I used to be a conservative, far-right,” he said. “I'm more open than ever before to vote Democrat.”

瓜哈多說，儘管他和妻子泰瑞都有穩定收入，兩人仍是靠每期薪水勉強度日。汽油是一大負擔；根據美國汽車協會（AAA）資料，截至9月22日，麥卡倫地區每加侖汽油均價為4.09美元。Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. Gasoline is a big weight, as the average price of a gallon was $4.09 in the McAllen area as of September 22, according to AAA data.

泰瑞表示，川普嚴格的移民執法「強力取締」，對那些只是想在美國工作的人而言過於嚴苛，因為他的政策已讓一些試圖在美國生活的家庭永久分離。Terrie said Trump's strict immigration enforcement "crackdown" was too harsh for people who simply want to work in the United States, as his policies have permanently separated some families trying to make a life in the U.S.

民調顯示，許多拉丁裔對共和黨日益失望。庫克政治與TelevisaUnivision委託進行、9月針對德州1000名拉丁裔所做的民調發現，曾投票給川普的拉丁裔中有18%已不再支持他；近三分之二拉丁裔選民表示，他們較不可能投給支持川普移民政策的候選人。Polling suggests many Latinos are souring on Republicans. A September poll of 1,000 Latinos in Texas conducted for Cook Political and TelevisaUnivision found that 18% of Latinos who voted for Trump no longer support him, and almost two-thirds of Latino voters would be less likely to vote for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies.

對兩黨而言，這些轉變說明了拉丁裔選民既有吸引力也有風險。他們的支持往往不那麼取決於政黨忠誠，而更取決於他們是否相信民選官員會改善自己的經濟處境。For both parties, those shifts explain both the promise and peril of Latino voters. Their support has often proved less dependent on party loyalty than on whether they believe elected officials will improve their economic circumstances.

西語媒體公司TelevisaUnivision執行長丹尼爾・阿萊格雷（Daniel Alegre）說：「這不是那種你像在對牆說話的情況，因為他們不是全都會投民主黨，也不是全都會投共和黨。他們都會投給那個能讓他們生活變得更好的人。」“It's not one of these that you're talking to a wall because they're all going to vote Democrat or they're all going to vote Republican,” said Daniel Alegre, CEO of Spanish-language media company TelevisaUnivision. “They're all going to vote for the person who is going to make their lives better.”

共和黨人否認拉丁裔選民正遠離他們的說法。全國共和黨國會委員會（National Republican Congressional Committee）全國西語裔新聞祕書克里斯蒂安・馬丁尼茲（Christian Martinez）表示，民主黨多年來面對西語裔選民支持下滑時，只以「否認、藉口和屈尊俯就」回應，而不是處理讓許多勞工階級選民轉向共和黨的那些關切。Republicans reject the premise that Latino voters are moving away from them. Christian Martinez, the National Republican Congressional Committee's national Hispanic press secretary, said Democrats spent years responding to declining support among Hispanic voters with “denial, excuses, and condescension,” instead of addressing concerns that drove many working-class voters toward Republicans.

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選區重劃反而造成反效果的風險，在第15選區尤其明顯。該選區重新劃設後，若套用2024年選情，原本會讓川普以18個百分點勝出；相較之下，他在2020年僅以2個百分點勝出，2016年首次參選時則輸14個百分點。The risk that redistricting backfires is particularly clear in the 15th District, which in its reconfigured form would have given Trump an 18-point win in 2024, compared with a two-point margin in 2020 and a 14-point loss in his first election in 2016.

該選區現任議員、共和黨人莫妮卡・德拉克魯茲（Monica De La Cruz）面臨一位獨特對手：民主黨歌手巴比・普利多。他在投入政壇前就已是名人。他的招牌金曲《Desvelado》在Spotify串流播放近6.1億次，並曾兩度獲得拉丁葛萊美獎。That district's incumbent, Republican Monica De La Cruz, is facing a unique opponent in Democratic singer Bobby Pulido, whose celebrity status predates his entry into politics. His signature hit, "Desvelado," has nearly 610 million Spotify streams, and he has won two Latin Grammy Awards.

他的經濟訊息與跨黨派吸引力，使這個選區成為全州最受矚目的選戰之一。德州南方大學8月下旬民調顯示，普利多領先德拉克魯茲5個百分點。His economic message and crossover appeal have turned the district into one of the state's most closely watched races. A late August Texas Southern University poll had Pulido leading De La Cruz by five percentage points.

普利多戴著牛仔帽，穿著藍色牛仔褲和牛仔靴，週末奔走德州南部，從一場quinceañera跑到另一場——這是拉丁裔社群為女孩舉辦的傳統15歲生日慶祝活動。他出其不意且免費現身，往往以送給壽星一頂白色帽子作結，帽上以粉紅字樣寫著「Make Quinceañeras Great Again」。Dressed in a cowboy hat, blue jeans and cowboy boots, Pulido crisscrosses South Texas on weekends, hopping from one quinceañera, a traditional 15th birthday celebration for girls in Latino communities, to another. His surprise — and free — appearances often end with a gift for the celebrant: a white hat with pink lettering reading "Make Quinceañeras Great Again."

普利多表示，民主黨在德州南部的拉丁裔選民間失去支持，是因為未能處理勞工家庭最在意的經濟問題；不過他也說，兩大黨經常誤讀選民。Pulido said Democrats lost ground with Latino voters in South Texas because they failed to address the economic concerns that matter most to working families, though he said both major parties often misread the electorate.

普利多告訴路透：「身為民主黨人，我認為我們誤解了西語裔選票；老實說，我也認為共和黨人不懂。我們不要施捨，我們很自豪。我們只是想要一個去工作、做出點成績、養家糊口的機會，然後努力讓我們的孩子比我們更好。」“As a Democrat, I think that we misunderstand the Hispanic vote and I think, honestly, I think Republicans don't get it either,” Pulido told Reuters. "We don't want handouts, we're very proud. We just want an opportunity to go work and make something and provide for our families, and then work towards our kids prospering better than we did."

8月1日，普利多給梅洛迪・席爾瓦和約200名聚集參加她15歲成人禮的親友一個驚喜。他出現在樓梯頂端時，眾人尖叫；當他提到自己的國會選戰時，歡呼聲更大。On August 1, Pulido surprised Melody Silva and roughly 200 relatives and friends gathered for her quinceañera. They screamed when he appeared at the top of a staircase and cheered louder when he mentioned his congressional race.

梅洛迪的父親、麥卡倫警察麥可・席爾瓦（Michael Silva）說：「他在河谷地區有很深的根。我覺得他不只是代表河谷，也是在代表我們這個族群，你知道，就是代表人民，代表我們這些在地人。」"He's got such great roots here in the Valley," said Michael Silva, Melody's father and a police officer in McAllen. "I feel like he's not just representing the Valley, but representing the raza, you know, the people, for us — locals."

他的知名度看來是他最大的優勢之一。在北方約180英里（290公里）、鄉村地區比維爾的一個每月戶外市集，路透訪問了十多名選民；普利多的名字就像夏日酷熱一樣無處不在。His name recognition appears to be one of his greatest strengths. Among the dozen voters Reuters spoke to at a monthly outdoor market roughly 180 miles (290 km) north in rural Beeville, Pulido's name was as ubiquitous as the summer heat.

德拉克魯茲競選團隊未回應採訪請求。De La Cruz's campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

現年36歲、在社群媒體上以「The Texas Tea Guy」聞名的拉蒙・巴雷拉，看見了民意轉變。他會在TikTok發布「爆料」政治與社區議題的短片更新，也開著他的道奇Ram 3500穿梭德州南部與在地人交談，同時尋找舊家具翻新。Ramon Barrera, 36, known as "The Texas Tea Guy" on social media, sees the shift in sentiment. He posts short TikTok updates "spilling the tea" about politics and community issues, crisscrossing South Texas in his Dodge Ram 3500 to talk to locals, along with hunting for old furniture to refurbish.

他在2024年首次投票給川普，形容自己是保守派，但並未強烈認同任一政黨。他說，川普這個任期令人失望，讓他有可能投給普利多，以及代表民主黨參選州長的吉娜・伊諾荷薩（Gina Hinojosa）；伊諾荷薩將對上尋求連任第4個任期的共和黨人格雷格・艾波特（Greg Abbott）。He voted for Trump for the first time in 2024, describing himself as conservative but not strongly aligned with either party. He said Trump's term has been a disappointment, opening the door for him to vote for Pulido and Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat running for governor against Republican Greg Abbott, who is seeking a fourth consecutive term.

他說：「標普500看起來很漂亮，但我們的錢包可不是。」“The S&P 500 looks great, but our wallets don't,” he said.

（David Hood-Nuño採訪報導；Kat Stafford、David Gaffen編輯）(Reporting by David Hood-Nuño; Editing by Kat Stafford and David Gaffen)