德東第二個邦將舉行選舉，梅爾茨命運懸於一線

詹姆斯・麥肯齊（James Mackenzie）報導By James Mackenzie

路透德國羅斯托克9月16日電——處境艱難的德國總理梅爾茨，將仰賴東部梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞地區受歡迎的中間偏左邦總理，在週日選舉中阻擋極右翼勢力；這場選舉可能決定他的政治生涯能否延續。ROSTOCK, Germany, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Germany's struggling Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be relying on the popular centre-left state premier in the eastern region of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania to keep out the far right in an election on Sunday which may decide his political survival.

德國另類選擇黨在9月6日薩克森-安哈特邦選舉中大獲全勝後聲勢正盛。該極右翼政黨看來很可能再度在梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞邦選舉中拔得頭籌；這場選舉將與首都柏林選舉同日舉行。Fresh from its triumph in the Sept. 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party looks once again likely to come in first in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election, which takes place on the same day as an election in the capital Berlin.

德國另類選擇黨首度在邦選舉中勝出，震撼了德國講求共識的政治體系，也凸顯出這個歐洲最大經濟體在預定2029年舉行的下屆聯邦大選中，可能出現極右翼勝利。目前全國民調顯示，德國另類選擇黨支持率介於27%至29%，基督教民主聯盟（Christian Democratic Union，CDU）則為18%至20%。The AfD's first-ever victory in a state election sent shock waves through Germany's consensus-oriented political system, underlining the possibility of a far-right victory in Europe's largest economy at the next federal election due in 2029. National opinion polls currently put the AfD at between 27-29% against 18-20% for the CDU.

在梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞邦，其他政黨若要阻止德國另類選擇黨掌權，主要希望寄託在社民黨籍、52歲邦總理施韋西希的人氣上。她領導與左翼黨（Left Party）合組的執政聯盟，個人支持率超過60%。In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the other parties' hopes of keeping the AfD from power rest largely on the popularity of the Social Democrats' (SPD) 52-year-old state premier Manuela Schwesig, who leads a coalition with the Left Party and whose personal approval ratings are over 60%.

INSA民調機構最新調查顯示，德國另類選擇黨支持率為37%，領先社民黨的35%；極左派左翼黨為10%，環保派綠黨（Greens）為5%，極左派「莎拉・瓦根克內希特聯盟」（BSW）為3%，低於進入議會門檻。梅爾茨所屬保守派基民盟僅有7%。The latest poll for INSA polling institute put the AfD on 37%, ahead of the SPD on 35%, with the far-left Left Party on 10%, the environmental Greens on 5% and the far-left BSW under the threshold to enter parliament on 3%. Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) were at just 7%.

若週日投票結果證實這項民調，社民黨、左翼黨與綠黨或許足以組成聯盟，儘管綠黨目前正好踩在5%門檻上。If confirmed on Sunday, that could be enough for a coalition between the SPD, Left Party and Greens, although the Greens are sitting exactly on the 5% threshold.

羅斯托克大學政治學教授沃夫岡・穆諾（Wolfgang Muno）表示：「這首先、也最重要的是施韋西希品牌。」他說，施韋西希「是該邦知名度最高的政治人物，遠高於其他人」，並成功與柏林的梅爾茨政府保持距離；在柏林，社民黨是基民盟的執政聯盟小黨。"It is, first and foremost, the Schwesig brand," said Wolfgang Muno, professor of political science at Rostock University. He said she was "by far the best-known politician in the state" and had succeeded in distancing herself from Merz's government in Berlin, where the SPD is junior coalition partner to the CDU.

他說：「而這在這裡非常受歡迎，因為近年來這裡的反政黨情緒愈來愈強烈。」"And that goes down very well here, because there has been an increasingly strong anti-party sentiment here in recent years," he said.

梅爾茨支持率暴跌MERZ'S APPROVAL RATINGS HAVE PLUMMETED

梅爾茨上任僅一年多以來，自己的支持率在全國層級已低至14%，在東部各邦更跌至個位數；先前承諾的改革未能展現成果，經濟不確定性加深，選民對政府的信任也遭侵蝕。In just over a year in office, Merz has seen his own approval ratings fall as low as 14% at national level and to single figures in the eastern states, as promised reforms have failed to show results, economic uncertainty has deepened and voter trust in the government has eroded.

基民盟已經朝著史上最差選舉結果走去，甚至面臨未能跨過5%門檻、無法進入議會的重大風險。The CDU is already on course for its worst-ever election result and it runs a serious risk of failing even to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

數週以來，德國媒體在來自梅爾茨保守派陣營內部的洩密助長下，不斷揣測他的前途。外界如今普遍預期，極右翼若再度獲勝，可能使他失去職位；即使不是立即下台，也可能在未來數月內發生。For weeks, German media outlets have speculated over Merz's future, fed by leaks from within his own conservative camp, with expectations now widespread that another victory for the far-right could cost him his job, if not immediately, then over the coming months.

目前，基民盟高層領袖仍支持梅爾茨，因為他們明白，更換他會讓整套改革議程陷入風險，卻無法解決其政府一直難以處理的根本經濟問題。不過，INSA機構週末一項民調發現，78%民眾不再認為梅爾茨適合擔任總理，其中也包括他自己政黨支持者的多數。For the moment, senior CDU leaders have stood behind him, aware that replacing him would put the entire reform agenda at risk without solving the underlying economic problems that his government has struggled to address. But a poll at the weekend by the INSA institute found that 78% of people, including a majority of his own party supporters, no longer see Merz as the right person for the job of chancellor.

施韋西希被視為未來可能的社民黨領袖，她一直嚴厲批評梅爾茨，呼籲政府採取更多行動抑制飆漲的燃料價格，並批評梅爾茨未能與在生活成本上升中掙扎的選民產生連結。Schwesig, seen as a potential future SPD leader, has been a fierce critic of Merz, calling for more government action to curb soaring fuel prices and criticising his failure to connect with voters struggling with rising living costs.

施韋西希在波羅的海港市羅斯托克與記者會面時表示：「總理並沒有真正讓民眾感覺到，他看見並理解他們的問題。」她說：「他根本無視這個問題。」"The Chancellor doesn't really give people the impression that he sees and understands their problems," Schwesig told a meeting with journalists in the Baltic port city of Rostock. "He simply ignores this problem."

聲勢MOMENTUM

和其他東部地區一樣，梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞邦是德國移民比例最低的邦之一，面臨合格勞動力短缺問題；其醫療與高齡照護體系也高度仰賴外國醫師、護理師與照護人員。Like other eastern regions, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a state with the one of lowest proportions of immigrants in Germany, suffers from a shortage of qualified workers and its health and aged care system depends heavily on foreign doctors, nurses and carers.

不過，德國另類選擇黨承諾限制移民，並透過恢復與莫斯科關係重新取得廉價俄羅斯能源，已在前共產主義的德國東部各邦打動選民；當地許多人仍與主流政黨中由西部主導的政治建制保持距離。But the AfD's promises to restrict immigration and regain access to cheap Russian energy by restoring ties with Moscow have cut through with voters in the formerly communist states of eastern Germany, where many remain distanced from the western-dominated political establishments in the mainstream parties.

德國另類選擇黨在梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞邦的首席候選人霍爾姆上週告訴記者：「又有一股很大的聲勢正在累積。」他說：「總理已經完全力不從心，你隨時都會覺得他可能辭職。」"There's a great deal of momentum building up again," Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD's lead candidate in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania told reporters last week. "The Chancellor is already completely out of his depth, and you feel at any moment that he might resign."

德國投入數十億歐元重建武裝部隊，帶動該邦造船業復甦；蓬勃發展的觀光業也協助重振這個在統一後最初幾年遭重創的經濟體。The state's resurgent shipbuilding sector, lifted by Germany's multibillion euro drive to rebuild its armed forces, and a flourishing tourism sector have helped revive an economy that was crushed in the years immediately following reunification.

但和德國其他地區一樣，梅克倫堡-西波美拉尼亞邦也留下多年經濟成長遲緩的痕跡；汽油價格飆漲更讓情況惡化。在這個以鄉村地區為主、許多人仰賴汽車代步的邦，油價衝擊尤其沉重。But like the rest of the country, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania bears the traces of years of sluggish economic growth, exacerbated by surging petrol prices that hit especially hard in a largely rural state where many rely on their cars to get around.

霍爾姆在競選中展現的語氣，比黨內其他人更溫和，包括共同黨魁艾麗絲・魏德爾（Alice Weidel）。他堅稱歡迎有工作的外國人，也避開許多在薩克森-安哈特邦選戰中出現的文化戰議題。Holm has struck a more moderate tone in the campaign than others in the party, including party co-leader Alice Weidel, insisting he welcomed foreigners with jobs and avoiding many of the culture wars issues that featured in the in Saxony-Anhalt campaign.

不過，儘管他的政黨在民調中領先，主要政黨所謂「防火牆」政策意味著，他不太可能找到聯盟夥伴。But although his party leads in the polls, the so-called "firewall" policies of the main parties means he is unlikely to be able to find a coalition partner.

即便如此，霍爾姆表示，民調曾低估德國另類選擇黨在薩克森-安哈特邦的得票率；該黨在那場投票率近80%的選舉中成功，靠的是能接觸到原本可能待在家中不投票的未定選民。他說：「而這也是我預期這裡會發生的事。」Even so, he said the polls had underestimated the AfD's score in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party's success in an election which saw a turnout of almost 80%, had been fuelled by its ability to reach uncommitted voters who might otherwise have stayed at home. "And that's what I expect to happen here as well," he said.

（詹姆斯・麥肯齊報導；亞歷山德拉・哈德森編輯）(Reporting by James MackenzieEditing by Alexandra Hudson)