俄羅斯人在投票前設法應對低迷經濟

作者：葛列布・布良斯基（Gleb Bryanski）By Gleb Bryanski

俄羅斯雅羅斯拉夫9月15日（路透社）——風景如畫的中世紀城市雅羅斯拉夫位於伏爾加河（Volga River）畔，是熱鬧的觀光樞紐，市中心與道路正以國家資金重建；相較俄羅斯多數地方，這裡或許更能抵禦經濟停滯的衝擊。YAROSLAVL, Russia, Sept 15 (Reuters) - As a bustling tourist hub on the Volga River whose town centre and roads are being rebuilt with state funding, the picturesque medieval city of Yaroslavl may be better shielded than most from Russia's economic stagnation.

但即使在這裡，莫斯科（Moscow）東北方250公里處，本週參與國會選舉投票的當地居民，仍面臨愈來愈多影響生計與事業的日常挑戰——無論他們是否認為這些問題與烏克蘭戰爭有關。But even here, 250 km northeast of Moscow, locals voting in parliamentary elections this week face a growing list of daily challenges to their livelihoods and businesses — whether they believe those are connected to the war with Ukraine or not.

在俄羅斯受到嚴密控制的政治環境下，加上反戰候選人大多被排除在選票之外，很少人預期這場選舉會帶來多大改變。但克里姆林宮（Kremlin）將其視為衡量民眾對這場已深入第五年的戰爭感到多疲乏的指標。In Russia's tightly controlled political environment, and with anti-war candidates largely barred from the ballot, few expect the election to change much. But the Kremlin sees it as a gauge of fatigue from a war now well into its fifth year.

居高不下的通膨、高昂借貸成本、產出停滯與燃料短缺，構成俄羅斯經濟生活的日常背景。不過雅羅斯拉夫的企業表示，只要能找到人力，他們仍撐得下去。Stubbornly high inflation, high borrowing costs, stagnating output and fuel shortages form the everyday backdrop to economic life in Russia. Yet businesses in Yaroslavl say they could still get by — if only they could find the labour.

「我們這裡有很多工作，」一名僅透露名字、經營連鎖縫紉店的業主安潔莉卡（Angelika）說。她補充：「問題是沒有工人。」她指出，儘管薪資不差，願意進入這個行業的年輕人仍然不足。"We have a lot of work here," said Angelika, the owner of a chain of sewing shops who gave only her first name. "The problem is that there are no workers," she added, noting a dearth of young people willing to enter the sector despite decent wages.

甜點師吉爾・瓦特（Gilles Walter）也有同感。他抱怨，附近的生產設施很難招到人。Confectioner Gilles Walter agreed, complaining of difficulties recruiting for his nearby production facility.

瓦特是1990年代定居俄羅斯的法國人。他談到自己曾試圖從當地烹飪學院聘用的畢業生時說：「他們連煎歐姆蛋或煮義大利麵都不會。」"They cannot even make an omelette or cook pasta," Walter, a Frenchman who settled in Russia in the 1990s, said of graduates he tried to hire from the local culinary college.

「這裡很少有人願意凌晨3點開始工作，好讓新鮮可頌能準時出爐。」"Very few here are ready to begin work at three in the morning so that fresh croissants are ready in time."

勞動市場吃緊，民眾荷包也緊TIGHT LABOUR MARKET, TIGHT PURSE-STRINGS

兩人都不願把勞工短缺與大規模招募入伍及戰場上沉重傷亡連在一起；當地軍人公墓數百座新墳上，插著紀念戰死者的旗幟，顯示這場戰爭的死亡人數。Neither wanted to link the labour shortages to mass army recruitment and heavy losses in the fighting, as evidenced by hundreds of fresh graves at the local military cemetery with raised flags honouring the war's dead.

但在官方失業率僅略高於2%的情況下，其他人則將進入勞動市場的年輕勞工不足，與俄羅斯生育率持續下滑連結起來。有人擔心，隨著戰爭拖延，人們不願生育，情況將會惡化。But with official unemployment just above 2%, others draw a link between the lack of young workers coming onto the labour market and the steady decline in Russia's fertility rates. Some fear the situation will get worse as people are reluctant to give birth while the war drags on.

來自雅羅斯拉夫約50公里外杜德科沃村（Dyudkovo）的肉品商柳博芙（Lubov）回憶，2012年5月她生產時，村裡共有4個孩子出生。她說，如今兩年內只出生了1個孩子。Lubov, a meat trader from the village of Dyudkovo, about 50 km from Yaroslavl, recalls that in May 2012 when she gave birth, there were four children born in the village. Now, she says, there was only one child born in two years.

「事情還在這樣發展時，人們就是不想生孩子，」她指的是烏克蘭戰爭。"People just don't want to give birth while this is going on," she said in reference to the war in Ukraine.

在雅羅斯拉夫中央市場，68歲退休婦人瓦爾瓦拉（Varvara）販售在城外森林採集的乾牛肝菌，以補貼她每月1萬7000盧布的退休金；她說，這筆退休金不夠生活。At the Yaroslavl central market, pensioner Varvara, 68, sells dried porcini mushrooms collected in the forests outside the city to augment her 17,000-rouble pension, which she says is not enough to live on.

她一時找不到合適詞語時，本能地改說烏克蘭語，隨即臉紅，並低聲說烏克蘭語是她的母語；她40年前從波爾塔瓦（Poltava）搬到這裡。As she searches for words, she instinctively switches to Ukrainian, blushes and whispers that Ukrainian is her native language as she moved here 40 years ago from Poltava.

她說：「乾菇現在已經變成奢侈品。今年買的人變少了；大家的購買力縮水了。」"Dried mushrooms have become a luxury now. People are buying less this year; their purchasing power has shrunk," she says.

未來展望遭下修FUTURE PROSPECTS DOWNGRADED

俄羅斯經濟成長率在2025年從前一年的4.9%大幅降至1%，接著在2026年初又出現小幅萎縮；政府預估全年將成長0.6%，不比歐洲央行（European Central Bank）預估歐元區今年的0.9%低太多。After a sharp fall in economic growth in 2025 to 1% from 4.9% the previous year, followed by another slight contraction at the start of 2026, the government is forecasting full-year growth of 0.6% — not much lower than the 0.9% that the European Central Bank sees the euro zone generating this year.

但整體前景仍然黯淡。俄羅斯經濟部今年稍早已因預期工業產出、資本投資與消費支出放緩，大幅下修至2029年的預測。But the bigger picture is still bleak, with the Economy Ministry earlier this year slashing forecasts through to 2029 on an expected slowdown in industrial output, capital investment and consumer spending.

俄羅斯通膨率雖已低於去年雙位數高點，但仍略高於6%，意味著央行不得不把利率維持在高得驚人的14%，使企業與家庭借貸都承受沉重代價。While down from the double-digit highs of last year, Russian inflation at just above 6% means the central bank is having to keep rates at an eye-watering 14%, making borrowing punitive for both businesses and households.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾・普丁（Vladimir Putin）曾斥責官員未能扭轉經濟局面；克里姆林宮本月稍早承諾，並未考慮再次加稅，以協助填補高於目標的預算赤字。President Vladimir Putin has scolded officials for their failure to turn the economy around, and the Kremlin promised earlier this month that it was not considering raising taxes again to help patch over an above-target budget deficit.

路透社在雅羅斯拉夫訪問的商界人士表示，為彌補不斷增加的軍事支出而推出的近期加稅已經夠痛，但只要明年不再加稅，他們仍能承受。The business people Reuters spoke to in Yaroslavl said recent tax hikes, introduced to compensate for growing military expenditure, were painful enough but something they could still cope with, provided taxes do not go up again next year.

烏克蘭無人機攻擊經濟目標UKRAINIAN DRONES HIT ECONOMIC TARGETS

或許更棘手、也更難控制的是，從國際制裁、烏克蘭戰爭到更廣泛的問題，都推升食品到燃料等必需品價格；2月以來的伊朗戰爭又加重了這些困境。Perhaps tougher — and harder to control — are the rising prices in essentials from food to fuel arising from everything from international sanctions to the war in Ukraine and wider troubles, to which the Iran war has added since February.

今年夏天是2022年戰爭開打以來，俄羅斯人最艱難的一個夏天。烏克蘭無人機打擊俄羅斯經濟核心，攻擊煉油、零售、電子商務、農業與觀光等產業。This summer was the most difficult for Russians since the war started in 2022, as Ukrainian drones struck at the heart of the Russian economy, hitting sectors such as oil refining and retail, e-commerce, agriculture and tourism.

民眾排隊數小時等待加油，通膨飆升，數千家小企業的貨品在電子商務倉庫中焚毀，國內旅遊萎縮6%；由於經由黑海的貿易變得過於危險，農民的穀物也賣不出去。People queued for fuel for hours, inflation spiked, thousands of small businesses saw their goods burn at e-commerce warehouses, domestic tourism shrank by 6%, and farmers had grain unsold as trade via the Black Sea became too dangerous.

退休軍方會計瓦列里（Valery）如今養蜂。他抱怨，每年秋天買來在入冬前餵蜜蜂的糖，過去兩年價格已經翻倍。Valery, a retired military accountant who now keeps bees, complained that the sugar he buys in autumn to feed the bees before winter had doubled in price over the last two years.

他說：「對我來說，這至關重要。我害怕不穩定。要是未來能有更多穩定與信心，會更好。」"For me, it is critically important. I am afraid of instability. More stability and confidence in the future would have been better," he said.

雅羅斯拉夫市中心林立古老教堂與17、18世紀商人宅邸，與市郊占地廣闊、俄羅斯第五大的煉油廠形成鮮明對比。Yaroslavl's centre, lined with ancient churches and 17th- and 18th-century merchants' houses, contrasts sharply with the sprawling refinery, Russia's fifth largest, on its outskirts.

如今所需的額外安全措施成本顯而易見：煉油廠最敏感的機組以海運貨櫃堆成的牆阻擋無人機，數千條粗金屬線則張設在管線之間，用來困住逼近的無人機。The cost of the added security now required is unmistakable: The refinery's most sensitive units are shielded from drones by walls made of sea shipping containers, while thousands of thick metal wires run between its pipes to trap approaching drones.

從煉油廠步行不遠處，葉夫根尼的房子因一架遭擊落的無人機而嚴重受損。他說，自己會忙到無法參加本週的選舉。A short walk from the refinery, Evgeny, whose house was heavily damaged by a shot-down drone, says he will be too busy to take part in this week's election.

他說，自己的主要工作將是在房屋殘骸中裝上一扇新的金屬門。His main task, he said, will be to install a new metal door into what remains of the house.

（葛列布・布良斯基撰稿；馬克・約翰（Mark John）與休・勞森（Hugh Lawson）編輯）(Writing by Gleb Bryanski; editing by Mark John and Hugh Lawson)