分析：盟友眾多之際，提格雷領導人在衣索比亞新一輪戰爭中面臨內部分歧

亞倫・羅斯報導By Aaron Ross

奈洛比，9月24日（路透社）——提格雷人民解放陣線（Tigray People's Liberation Front）上一次在2020年與衣索比亞聯邦政府開戰時，身陷敵對勢力包圍的孤立處境，卻以內部團結作為彌補。NAIROBI, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The last time the Tigray People's Liberation Front went to war with the Ethiopian federal government in 2020, it compensated for its isolation amid a sea of enemies with internal cohesion.

如今，隨著週三爆發戰鬥，衣索比亞北部提格雷州最大政黨與阿迪斯阿貝巴進入新一輪衝突，這項態勢已完全反轉。As the biggest political party in northern Ethiopia's Tigray region enters a new conflict with Addis Ababa following the outbreak of fighting on Wednesday, that dynamic has been turned on its head.

這一次，提格雷人民解放陣線並不缺盟友。該陣線週日宣布與另外6個衣索比亞武裝團體結盟，目標是推翻總理阿比・艾哈邁德（Abiy Ahmed）的政府。區域專家也普遍認為，該陣線正獲得鄰國厄利垂亞支持。阿斯瑪拉否認此事。This time, the TPLF has no shortage of allies. On Sunday, it announced an alliance with six other Ethiopian armed groups aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Regional experts also widely believe it is receiving support from neighbouring Eritrea. Asmara denies this.

然而在內部戰線上，提格雷人民解放陣線對提格雷社會的掌控已大幅削弱。自2022年上一場戰爭結束以來，該陣線因嚴峻經濟情勢面臨抗議，並遭遇敵對政黨日益激烈的競爭，以及高層成員出走。On the home front, however, the TPLF’s grip over Tigrayan society has weakened significantly. Since the end of the last war in 2022, it has faced protests over dire economic conditions, increasing competition from rival parties and defections of leading members.

塔德塞家族一名成員告訴路透社，週三夜間至週四凌晨，武裝人員拘押了4名曾對新戰爭表達疑慮的資深軍事領袖，其中包括上一場戰爭期間提格雷軍總司令塔德塞・韋雷德（Tadesse Werede）。Overnight, armed men detained four veteran military leaders who had expressed doubts about the new war, including the commander-in-chief of Tigrayan forces during the last war, Tadesse Werede, a member of Tadesse's family told Reuters.

非營利組織「武裝衝突地點與事件資料計畫」（Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project）的東非區域專家賈拉勒・格塔丘・比魯（Jalale Getachew Birru）表示：「過去，提格雷人民解放陣線在州內、全國以及國外僑民當中都擁有非常龐大的支持。他們也成功動員當地民眾加入提格雷防衛軍（Tigray Defense Forces，TDF）。」"Previously, TPLF had very large support within the region, within the country, as well as from outside of the country, the diaspora. And they also managed to mobilize the local people to join TDF (Tigray Defense Forces)," said Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa regional expert for the non-profit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project.

「但這一次……我們看不到這些情況。」"But this time… we don't see all these things."

阿比的發言人拒絕評論。提格雷人民解放陣線發言人未回應採訪請求。Abiy's spokesperson declined to comment. A spokesperson for the TPLF did not respond to a request for comment.

「愛國者」與「叛徒」'PATRIOTS' AND 'TRAITORS'

週三的事態發展粉碎了4年前達成的和平協議。這項協議曾終結本世紀最致命內戰之一。當天，提格雷軍控制該州主要機場，並攻擊兩個鄰近州的聯邦軍；提格雷軍稱，這是為回應聯邦政府侵略而發動的防衛戰。Wednesday's developments, in which Tigrayan forces seized control of the region's main airports and attacked federal forces in two neighbouring regions as part of what they called a defensive war in response to federal government aggression, shattered the four-year-old peace deal that ended one of the century's deadliest civil wars.

在那場衝突中，提格雷人民解放陣線四面受敵，包括聯邦政府、北方的厄利垂亞，以及南方阿姆哈拉州與東方阿法爾州的武裝人員。In that conflict, TPLF faced enemies on all fronts, including the federal government, Eritrea to the north and fighters from the Amhara region to the south and Afar to the east.

這個前游擊運動曾主導衣索比亞全國政治逾30年，直到阿比於2018年獲任命為總理。當時，它得以利用提格雷各地對聯邦政府普遍存在的敵意。The former guerrilla movement, which had dominated Ethiopian national politics for more than three decades until Abiy was appointed prime minister in 2018, was able to harness widespread animosity across Tigray towards the federal government.

這使提格雷人民解放陣線得以撐過聯邦軍早期迅速推進，並在一場歷時兩年的艱苦戰爭中持續對抗。不過，在非洲聯盟斡旋的《普利托利亞協議》（Pretoria Agreement）於2022年11月簽署前，聯邦政府最終在戰場上取得上風。That allowed it to weather swift early advances by federal forces and contest a grinding, two-year war, although the federal government ultimately gained the upper hand on the battlefield before the African Union-mediated Pretoria Agreement was signed in November 2022.

戰後，提格雷的政治團結開始鬆動。許多提格雷人批評提格雷人民解放陣線領導的當局，未能處理持續的飢餓與流離失所問題。退伍軍人則發動公開抗議，要求補償。After the war, political unity in Tigray frayed. Many Tigrayans criticised the TPLF-led authorities for failing to address continuing hunger and displacement. War veterans staged public protests, demanding compensation.

提格雷人民解放陣線內的強硬派也與較溫和的黨內成員發生衝突，導致多名高知名度成員出走，並由前提格雷防衛軍將領另組一支對立武裝力量。And TPLF hardliners clashed with more moderate party members, leading to high-profile defections and the creation of a rival armed force by former TDF generals.

地方與國際人權組織、反對黨以及多名提格雷居民指出，近幾個月來，提格雷當局已開始強迫徵召年輕男性加入防衛部隊。In recent months, Tigrayan authorities have turned to forcibly recruiting young men into the defence forces, according to local and international human rights groups, opposition parties and multiple Tigray residents.

提格雷人民解放陣線否認進行強迫徵兵。The TPLF has denied conducting forced recruitment.

3名居民告訴路透社，隨著新衝突展開，默克萊的氣氛已與2020年大不相同。As the new conflict got underway, the mood in Mekelle was very different from in 2020, three residents told Reuters.

其中一名居民說：「上一場戰爭開始時，儘管存在政治分歧，圍繞保衛提格雷，仍有強烈的集體動員意識。」"At the beginning of the previous war, despite political disagreements, there was a strong sense of collective mobilization around the defence of Tigray," said one of the residents.

「如今，這種社會凝聚力已嚴重削弱。提格雷在政治上高度兩極化，人們日益被劃分為『愛國者』與『叛徒』兩類。」"Today that social cohesion has been severely weakened. Tigray is politically polarized, and people are increasingly being divided into categories of 'patriots' and 'traitors.'"

舊敵聯手對抗聯邦政府OLD FOES UNITE AGAINST FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

提格雷領導人從新聯盟中受到鼓舞；這個聯盟包括其昔日敵人阿姆哈拉法諾民族運動（Amhara Fano National Movement）。Tigray's leaders have taken heart from their new alliance, which includes its former foe the Amhara Fano National Movement.

安全消息人士告訴路透社，自週三以來，他們一直在阿姆哈拉並肩作戰；法諾是一個由多個武裝團體組成的聯盟，自2023年以來在當地發動叛亂。Since Wednesday, they have been fighting together in Amhara, where Fano, a coalition of armed groups, has been waging an insurgency since 2023, security sources told Reuters.

聯邦政府指控於1993年自衣索比亞獨立的厄利垂亞，向提格雷人民解放陣線和其他武裝團體提供財務支持；許多衣索比亞專家表示，他們相信這些指控。The federal government has accused Eritrea, which won its independence from Ethiopia in 1993, of providing financial support to the TPLF and other armed groups - claims that many Ethiopia experts say they believe.

厄利垂亞一再否認支持衣索比亞境內的武裝團體。Eritrea has repeatedly denied supporting armed groups in Ethiopia.

但這個聯盟在現實中的成效仍有疑問。其成員利益分散，有時甚至直接相互矛盾。舉例而言，提格雷人民解放陣線與法諾仍對阿姆哈拉在上一場戰爭期間自提格雷奪取的土地提出相互競爭的主張。But the alliance's real-world effectiveness remains in doubt. Its members have diffuse – and sometimes directly contradictory – interests. The TPLF and Fano, for example, continue to stake competing claims to land Amhara captured from Tigray during the last war.

奧斯陸新大學學院（Oslo New University College）和平與衝突研究教授謝蒂爾・特隆沃爾（Kjetil Tronvoll）表示：「唯一將他們連結在一起的議題，是他們反對（阿比的）繁榮黨（Prosperity Party）統治。」"The only issue joining them is their opposition to (Abiy's) Prosperity Party rule," said Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor of peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College.

就聯邦政府而言，它相較於對手擁有重大戰術優勢。在上一場戰爭中，聯邦政府廣泛部署外國製無人機，在提格雷人民解放陣線推進至阿姆哈拉後，協助扭轉戰局。The federal government, for its part, has major tactical advantages over its opponents. In the last war, its widespread deployment of foreign-made drones helped turn the tide of the conflict after the TPLF advanced into Amhara.

此後，聯邦政府已強化無人機庫存，包括開始在國內生產；而提格雷人民解放陣線則依《普利托利亞協議》交出武器。Since then, it has bolstered its stocks of drones, including by starting domestic production, while the TPLF surrendered weaponry as part of the Pretoria Agreement.

然而，聯邦政府也面臨自身挑戰。分析人士說，長期戰鬥已使士氣與資源承壓，而頻繁的無人機攻擊仍不足以壓制阿姆哈拉的叛亂。It faces its own challenges, however. Prolonged fighting has strained morale and resources, while frequent drone strikes have not been enough to suppress the insurgency in Amhara, analysts say.

國際危機組織（International Crisis Group）智庫的非洲之角分析師馬格努斯・泰勒（Magnus Taylor）表示：「提格雷人民解放陣線看起來比過去更弱，因為自上一場戰爭結束以來，他們的部隊已遭削弱。不過，與其他反對派團體的聯盟，加上來自其他區域國家的支持……可能在某種程度上抵消這一點。」"The TPLF look weaker than previously as their forces are depleted since the end of the last war," said Magnus Taylor, a Horn of Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. "However, the alliances with other opposition groups, plus support from other regional states … could offset this to some degree."

（亞歷克斯・理查森編輯）(Editing by Alex Richardson)