貧窮率考驗阿根廷米雷選前支持度

布宜諾斯艾利斯9月24日（路透社）——食物救濟站人滿為患、不用現金的以物易物俱樂部再度興起，還有家庭為購買食品雜貨而申辦短期貸款，這些現象凸顯阿根廷日益升高的社會壓力。官方週四公布的數據顯示，自總統哈維爾・米雷控制住通膨以來，貧窮率首度上升。BUENOS AIRES, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Overflowing soup kitchens, a resurgence of cash-free barter clubs and families taking out short-term loans for groceries are highlighting growing social strains in Argentina, as official data on Thursday showed the first increase in poverty since President Javier Milei brought inflation under control.

阿根廷國家統計與普查局（INDEC）通報，2026年上半年，貧窮人口占總人口比率達32.3%，高於前一期間登記的28.2%。Argentina's statistics agency, INDEC, reported that poverty reached 32.3% of the population in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% registered the previous period.

阿根廷天主教大學（Catholic University of Argentina，簡稱UCA）的估算被視為官方貧窮趨勢的早期指標。其估算顯示，到年底貧窮率可能升至總人口的35%，扭轉先前大幅下降的一部分；2025年貧窮率曾降至28%。距離阿根廷下屆總統大選只剩一年多，這對米雷而言是一項挫折。Estimates from the Catholic University of Argentina, also known as UCA, are seen as an early indicator of official poverty trends. They suggest the rate could rise to 35% of the population by year-end, reversing part of a sharp decline that brought the rate down to 28% in 2025 and marking a setback for Milei little more than a year before Argentina's next presidential election.

UCA阿根廷社會債務觀察站主任奧古斯丁・薩爾維亞（Agustín Salvia）說：「過去四個季度，每一季都有40萬到45萬人陷入貧窮。」"Every quarter over the last four quarters, 400,000 to 450,000 people have fallen into poverty," said Agustín Salvia, director of the Argentine Social Debt Observatory at UCA.

即便如此，貧窮率仍遠低於米雷上任第一年時的水準。The increase still leaves poverty well below the levels seen during Milei's first year in office.

但分析師表示，這可能顯示通膨降溫帶動的社會改善正在失去動能，未來若要進一步改善，愈來愈取決於更強勁的就業創造與實質薪資成長。But analysts say it could signal that social gains driven by slowing inflation are losing momentum, with further progress increasingly dependent on stronger job creation and real wage growth.

顧問公司Teneo拉丁美洲董事總經理尼可拉斯・華森（Nicholas Watson）說：「貧窮率溫和上升，不會抹去米雷任內出現的大幅下降，但這會顯示，較容易取得的改善已經告一段落。」"A modest increase in poverty would not undo the large decline seen under Milei, but it would suggest that the easier part of the improvement has run its course," said Nicholas Watson, managing director for Latin America at consultancy Teneo.

經濟壓力考驗支持度ECONOMIC STRAINS TEST SUPPORT

米雷在2023年底以壓倒性勝利上台，當時他獲得低收入與中等收入選民強力支持，這些選民對多年失控通膨感到憤怒。雖然他的自由意志主義政府已大幅減緩物價上漲，並穩定公共財政，但社會團體與救助工作者表示，愈來愈多阿根廷人難以維持生計。Milei swept to power in late 2023 with strong backing from lower- and middle-income voters angered by years of runaway inflation. While his libertarian government has dramatically slowed price rises and stabilized public finances, social organizations and aid workers said more Argentines are struggling to make ends meet.

在布宜諾斯艾利斯郊區的一處社區會堂，安娜・巴雷托（Ana Barreto）協助經營一家以物易物俱樂部，居民在那裡交換物品，而不使用現金。In a community hall on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Ana Barreto helps run a barter club, where residents exchange goods instead of using cash.

巴雷托是一名教師，她在8月於維拉阿斯托菲創辦這家俱樂部，使這種與過去經濟危機相關的做法再度出現。她說：「貧窮已急劇加深。」"Poverty has deepened dramatically," said Barreto, a teacher who launched the club in August in Villa Astolfi, reviving a practice associated with past economic crises.

她說，食用油、糖、麵粉和義大利麵都是最搶手的物品，常被拿來交換二手衣物和家庭用品。Cooking oil, sugar, flour and pasta are among the most sought-after items, she said, often traded for used clothing and household goods.

隨著米雷邁向2027年可能的連任之路，日益加劇的困境似乎正在削弱低收入選民的支持。最新民調顯示，在受訪的較貧窮民眾中，米雷的支持率大幅下滑，引發外界質疑他能否保住這個對他上次選舉勝利至關重要的選民群體。Rising hardship appears to be damaging support among lower-income voters as Milei moves toward a likely reelection bid in 2027. The latest opinion polls show Milei's approval rating has fallen sharply among poorer respondents surveyed, raising questions about whether he can retain a constituency that was central to his previous election victory.

AtlasIntel 9月調查發現，在月收入最高約650美元的低收入受訪者中，不支持米雷的比例已攀升至近70%，支持率則降至30%以下。一年前，這兩項數字分別為57%和37%。全國範圍內，58%不支持米雷，38.1%支持。A September AtlasIntel survey found disapproval among lower-income respondents, defined as those earning up to around $650 a month, had climbed to nearly 70%, while approval fell below 30%. A year earlier, the figures stood at 57% and 37%, respectively. Nationally, 58% disapproved of Milei, while 38.1% approved.

通膨降低已不再足夠LOWER INFLATION NO LONGER ENOUGH

削減公部門薪資、取消交通與公用事業補貼，以及放寬進口規定，都使家庭承壓，也讓一些以國內市場為主的產業面臨壓力。Cuts to public-sector pay, the removal of transport and utility subsidies and relaxed import rules have squeezed households and put pressure on some domestically focused industries.

米雷政府表示，推動緊縮是為了恢復經濟穩定，透過消除長期預算赤字來達成；這些赤字曾助長一再發生的經濟危機與高通膨。政府主張，平衡預算並達成財政盈餘，將強化公共財政、安定投資人信心，並為永續成長創造條件。Milei's government says the austerity drive is needed to restore economic stability by eliminating chronic budget deficits that contributed to repeated economic crises and high inflation. It argues that balancing the budget and delivering a fiscal surplus will bolster public finances, reassure investors and create the conditions for sustainable growth.

但在布宜諾斯艾利斯北方聖費爾南多經營五金行的古斯塔沃・勞爾・佩雷斯（Gustavo Raúl Pérez）說，由於顧客已無力消費，他的生意受到衝擊。But Gustavo Raúl Pérez, who owns a hardware store in San Fernando, north of Buenos Aires, said his business had suffered because customers can no longer afford to shop.

佩雷斯說：「四年前，我店裡顧客大排長龍。我以前能賣出10台手推車，現在只賣得出1台。」"Four years ago I had lines of customers. I used to sell 10 wheelbarrows; now I sell one," Pérez said.

佩雷斯補充說：「我投票給米雷，是相信他會帶來更好的改變，但他真的讓我失望。」"I voted for Milei believing he would bring change for the better, but he really disappointed me,” Pérez added.

今年第二季失業率升至7.9%，高於2025年同期的7.6%。華森表示，民間部門就業已連續13個月下滑，家庭收入復甦也大致停滯。Unemployment rose to 7.9% in the second quarter of this year, up from 7.6% in the same period of 2025. Private-sector employment has declined for 13 straight months and the recovery in household incomes had largely stalled, Watson said.

政府表示將堅持既定路線。The government says it will stay the course.

一名政府發言人告訴路透社：「總統不會偏離他的計畫一分一毫。他不會為了贏得選舉而放鬆其（緊縮性）貨幣政策。」"The president is not going to move one inch from his program. He is not going to loosen his (contractionary) monetary policy to win elections," a government spokesperson told Reuters.

米雷政府拒絕增加公共支出或恢復補貼；這些措施常在選舉年被採用。政府認為，這麼做將危及其控制通膨和維持財政紀律的努力。Milei's administration has refused to increase public spending or renew subsidies, measures often used in election years, arguing it would jeopardize its efforts to tame inflation and maintain fiscal discipline.

在另一家兩年前成立的以物易物俱樂部，梅拉妮・馬倫・博雷（Melany Malén Borré）說，許多人對生活水準改善未能實現感到沮喪。At another barter club set up two years ago, Melany Malén Borré said many feel frustrated that improvements in their living standards have not materialized.

博雷說：「我認為，投票給米雷的人原本期待會有進展，但那從未發生。」"I think the people who voted for Milei were expecting progress that never came," Borré said.

（尼可拉斯・米斯庫林布宜諾斯艾利斯報導；米格爾・洛比安科補充報導。露辛達・艾略特與奧蘿拉・埃利斯編輯）(Reporting by Nicolas Misculin in Buenos Aires, additional reporting by Miguel Lo Bianco. Editing by Lucinda Elliott and Aurora Ellis)