消息人士：美國與伊朗討論分階段協議，以重開荷姆茲海峽並結束美方封鎖

作者：莎米亞・納庫爾（Samia Nakhoul）、帕里莎・哈菲齊（Parisa Hafezi）與約翰・愛爾蘭（John Irish）By Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi and John Irish

9月24日（路透社）——接近談判的消息人士表示，美國與伊朗談判代表正在紐約探討一條分階段走出戰爭的路徑，內容將包括德黑蘭重新開放荷姆茲海峽，以及華府解除對伊朗的經濟封鎖。Sept 24 (Reuters) - US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.

這條海峽已成為結束美伊近7個月衝突的努力中最核心的談判籌碼；伊朗尋求解除正扼殺其經濟的美國封鎖，而華府則尋求讓船隻能自由通行這條全球石油供應路線，目前該航道遭德黑蘭封鎖。The strait has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the nearly seven-month US-Iran conflict, with Iran seeking relief from the US blockade that is choking its economy and Washington seeking free passage for ships on the global oil supply route now blocked by Tehran.

兩名伊朗消息人士、兩名地方官員和兩名西方外交消息人士向路透社表示，談判面臨重大障礙，因為雙方都不願率先放棄自身籌碼；不過，伊朗立場背後也反映出其已認知到長期對抗的經濟代價。The talks face a big obstacle as neither side wants to be the first to surrender its leverage, according to comments to Reuters by two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomatic sources, but behind Iran's stance is a recognition of the economic cost of prolonged confrontation.

一名伊朗高層官員表示，結束僵局最可行的方式會是一項分階段安排：伊朗允許荷姆茲海峽恢復航行，以換取美國解除經濟封鎖，且德黑蘭可能取得遭凍結資產的使用權。A senior Iranian official said the most plausible way to end the impasse would be a phased arrangement, with Iran allowing navigation through Hormuz in return for the US lifting its economic blockade and Tehran potentially gaining access to frozen assets.

他在聯合國大會場邊表示：「一條前進道路會是分階段解決危機。第一步是結束封鎖並重新開放荷姆茲海峽。」"One way forward would be to solve the crisis in stages. The first would be to end the blockade and reopen Hormuz," he said on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

這將意味著，美國總統川普（Donald Trump）必須接受另一項暫時性解決方案，此前一項諒解已於7月破局。消息人士表示，因此談判代表面臨的核心挑戰，不只是勾勒出一項協議，也要確保任何讓步都足夠持久，能讓雙方信任。That would involve US President Donald Trump accepting another temporary fix, after an earlier understanding collapsed in July. So a central challenge facing the negotiators is not just to sketch out a deal but also to ensure any concessions are durable enough for both sides to trust, the sources said.

川普表示，他認為美國與伊朗可能在11月3日國會期中選舉後達成協議。一名歐洲高層官員表示，伊朗人「有一份非常長的要求清單」。Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November 3. A senior European official said the Iranians "have a very long list of demands."

一名白宮官員表示，雖然「伊朗迫切想要達成協議，但川普總統掌握所有籌碼，並將作出任何最符合美國利益的決定」。A White House official said that while "Iran is desperate for a deal, President Trump holds all the cards and will make whatever decision is best for the United States."

這名官員說，川普仍然「在適當情況下願意與伊朗對話」，但沒有談判的必要；美國處於「非常強勢的地位」，既控制荷姆茲海峽，也面對一個正在「崩潰」的伊朗經濟。Trump, he said, remained "open to talking with Iran under the right circumstances" but had no need to negotiate, and the US was in a "very strong position" with control of the Strait of Hormuz and an Iranian economy that was "collapsing."

這名官員表示，「毀滅性制裁」和「史上最成功的封鎖之一」已重創伊朗經濟，使伊朗徹底破產。該官員說，與其被德黑蘭「玩弄」，川普更願意任由「伊朗不可避免的崩潰」自行發展。The official said "crushing sanctions" and "one of the most successful blockades in history" have crippled Iran’s economy and left Iran completely broke. Trump was content to let the "inevitable Iranian collapse" play out rather than be "played" by Tehran, the official said.

美國前談判代表丹尼斯・羅斯（Dennis Ross）表示，他認為在投票前達成協議的機率只有30%，但雙方在期中選舉前達成協議的理由可能比選後更強。Former US negotiator Dennis Ross said he saw only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote, but that both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before than after the midterms.

羅斯說：「真正勒緊伊朗人的就是封鎖。那正在掐住他們的咽喉。」"The blockade is what's really squeezing the Iranians. It's strangling them," Ross said.

若能在期中選舉前達成協議，可能有利於川普，因為重新開放荷姆茲海峽可緩和波斯灣緊張情勢、抑制油價，並有助於拉低政治上敏感的美國汽油價格。A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices.

在川普仍有較大政治誘因促成交易之際，伊朗獲得急需經濟紓困的機會可能較高。Iran's chances of gaining much-needed economic relief may be greater while Trump still has a greater political incentive to strike a bargain.

羅斯表示，期中選舉後，川普面臨的限制可能較少，也可能更願意加大施壓力道或考慮軍事選項。After the midterms, Ross said, Trump may face fewer constraints and be more willing to intensify pressure or consider military options.

籌碼成為障礙？LEVERAGE AS OBSTACLE?

讓華府與德黑蘭重回談判桌的籌碼，也可能使妥協更加困難。The leverage that brought Washington and Tehran back to negotiations could also make compromise harder.

華府掌控著最傷害德黑蘭的壓力手段，而德黑蘭掌控著通往關鍵能源咽喉的通道。雙方都不願在未換取具體回報的情況下放棄這項籌碼。Washington controls the pressure that is hurting Tehran most, while Tehran controls access to a critical energy chokepoint. Neither side wants to surrender that leverage without extracting something tangible in return.

這意味著，期中選舉對外交而言，與其說是一道最後期限，不如說是維持外交努力得以進行之條件的期限。若華府與德黑蘭無法在期中選舉前將籌碼轉化為協議，隨著升級風險升高，外交窗口可能會縮小。This means the midterms may be less a deadline for diplomacy than for preserving the conditions that make the diplomatic efforts possible. If Washington and Tehran cannot turn leverage into a deal before the midterms, the diplomatic window could narrow as the risk of escalation grows.

這名伊朗官員表示，儘管德黑蘭正在尋求外交出路，也正為與華府重新開戰的可能性做準備；他並指控美國把經濟封鎖和武力威脅當作脅迫工具。Even as it seeks a diplomatic off-ramp, Tehran is preparing for the possibility of renewed war with Washington, the Iranian official said, accusing the US of using the economic blockade and threat of force as tools of coercion.

這名伊朗高層官員說：「我們的手指放在扳機上。美國人知道自己需要做什麼，但因為他們要求過高，透過外交解決此事的機率極低。」"Our fingers are on the trigger,” said the senior Iranian official. “The Americans know what they need to do but, because of their excessive demands, the chances of diplomacy resolving this are extremely low.”

地方消息人士表示，德黑蘭願意將要求收取荷姆茲海峽通行費的主張從主要協議中移除，改放入附帶文件，因為結束封鎖已成為更迫切的優先事項。Regional sources said Tehran was willing to drop a demand for payment of transit fees to use the Strait of Hormuz from the main agreement and put the demand in a side attachment instead, as ending the blockade had become the more urgent priority.

波斯灣國家已拒絕收取通行費的提案。地方消息人士表示，任何安排都將是暫時性的，並非伊朗正式放棄其立場。Gulf states have rejected the proposal for payment of transit fees. Any arrangement would be temporary, not a formal abandonment of Iran’s position, the regional sources said.

美國已進一步勒緊對伊朗的經濟絞索，在封鎖之外又疊加新制裁；這項封鎖已切斷伊朗石油出口，而石油出口是重要外匯來源。The US has tightened the economic vice on Iran, layering new sanctions on top of a blockade that has choked off Iran's oil exports, an important source of hard currency.

本月，美國把伊朗剩餘的商業航空公司及其支援網絡列為目標，這是切斷支撐伊朗政府和勢力強大的革命衛隊經濟命脈的行動之一。川普警告，除非伊朗達成協議，否則其經濟可能會「腐爛」。This month, it targeted Iran's remaining commercial airlines and support networks as part of a campaign to sever the economic lifelines sustaining the government and the powerful Revolutionary Guards. Trump warned that Iran's economy could "rot" unless it reached a deal.

他說：「伊朗主要關注的並不是在荷姆茲海峽徵收通行費，而是維持其對這條水道的行政管理權。伊朗或許願意延後處理通行費問題，但他們不會放棄對這條海峽的行政管理權。」"Iran is not primarily focused on imposing tolls in Hormuz but on preserving its administrative control of the waterway,” he said. "Iran may be willing to defer the toll issue, but they are not going to give up administrative control of the strait.”

紐約外交努力的核心，是一項根本緊張關係：華府希望壓力能帶來讓步，德黑蘭希望在作出讓步前先解除壓力，而波斯灣國家則希望在不讓區域戰略水道成為長期談判籌碼的情況下解決衝突。At the heart of the diplomacy in New York is a fundamental tension. Washington wants pressure to produce concessions, Tehran wants pressure removed before making them, and the Gulf states want the conflict resolved without allowing the region's strategic waterways to become enduring bargaining chips.

對無止境衝突的憂慮FEARS OF AN OPEN-ENDED CONFLICT

在紐約與川普舉行另一場會議期間，波斯灣國家領袖要求華府說明期中選舉後的最終目標，包括若伊朗拒絕重返談判，美國是否會恢復軍事行動。During a separate meeting with Trump in New York, Gulf leaders sought clarity on Washington's endgame beyond the midterms, including on whether the US would resume military action if Iran refused to return to negotiations.

地方消息人士表示，他們傳達了共同立場，拒絕伊朗對荷姆茲海峽有任何控制權，並表示必須恢復航行自由，這條戰略水道不應成為脅迫波斯灣國家的工具。They conveyed their collective rejection of any Iranian control of Hormuz, saying freedom of navigation must be restored and that the strategic waterway should not become a tool of coercion against Gulf states, regional sources said.

然而，在對荷姆茲海峽提出警告的同時，波斯灣國家領袖也大力推動降溫與政治進程，反映出該地區決心置身於美國與伊朗之間任何進一步衝突之外。Yet alongside their warnings over Hormuz, Gulf leaders have pressed hard for de-escalation and a political process, reflecting the region's determination to stay out of any further conflict between the US and Iran.

設於阿布達比的智庫阿聯政策中心（Emirates Policy Center）主席伊卜蒂薩姆・凱特比（Ebtessam al-Ketbi）說：「目前仍不清楚川普的最終目標是什麼，也不清楚施壓行動之外的替代方案會是什麼。」"It's still not clear what Trump’s endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be," said Ebtessam al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank based in Abu Dhabi.

她提到連接紅海與亞丁灣的曼德海峽時表示：「相較之下，伊朗人知道自己想要什麼。他們正透過荷姆茲海峽和曼德海峽重塑區域格局，目標明確，而華府尚未界定自己的路線圖。」"The Iranians, by contrast, know what they want. They're reshaping the regional landscape through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb with a clear objective while Washington has yet to define its roadmap," she said, referring to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

這種不確定性也正在形塑德黑蘭的盤算。區域分析師、以色列前軍事情報官員丹尼・西特里諾維茲（Danny Citrinowicz）表示，紐約談判並未改變任何一方的基本立場；只要伊朗相信川普希望在期中選舉前避免更大規模升級，就不太可能退讓。That uncertainty is also shaping Tehran’s calculations. Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer, said the New York talks had not altered the basic positions of either side and that Iran was unlikely to retreat as long as it believed Trump wanted to avoid a wider escalation before the midterms.

美國前伊朗談判代表艾倫・艾爾（Alan Eyre）說：「封鎖正在傷害他們，但這很可能不會讓他們軟化立場，反而會促使他們升級，因為他們相信，如果軟化立場，他們就完了。」“The blockade is hurting them, but rather than softening their position, it is likely to drive them to escalate because they believe that if they soften their position, they are dead," said Alan Eyre, a former US negotiator on Iran.

一名了解談判的西方官員補充說：「一切都圍繞著開放荷姆茲海峽。我們所有人在國內都面臨壓力，而伊朗人知道這一點。」A Western official familiar with the talks added: "It is all about opening the Strait of Hormuz. We're all under pressure domestically and the Iranians know that."

（華盛頓史蒂夫・霍蘭德補充報導；莎米亞・納庫爾撰稿；提摩西・赫里蒂奇編輯）(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington; Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage)