胡塞武裝閃擊使沙烏地阿拉伯暴露弱點，伊朗更受鼓舞

作者：薩米亞・納庫爾與提穆爾・阿扎里By Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari

安卡拉9月16日（路透社）—— 胡塞武裝奪取可俯瞰曼德海峽的陣地，使沙烏地阿拉伯遭遇多年來在葉門最嚴重的挫敗，也暴露情報失靈、葉門盟友潰散，以及美國保護能力的侷限。ANKARA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Houthi capture of ground overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has dealt Saudi Arabia its gravest setback in Yemen in years, exposing intelligence failures, the collapse of Yemeni allies and the limits of U.S. protection.

胡塞武裝本週沿紅海沿岸推進，並奪下海峽口多座島嶼。曼德海峽是全球石油供應的重要動脈；在伊朗及其盟友擴大勢力之際，這也使沙國急於尋求支持。A Houthi advance this week along the Red Sea coast and the capture of islands at the mouth of the strait, a vital artery for global oil supplies, has also left the kingdom scrambling for backing as Iran and its allies expand their reach.

西方、地區與葉門的高階官員及消息人士表示，胡塞武裝這次突破反映出多重因素：反胡塞的葉門派系嚴重分裂、取代阿拉伯聯合大公國監督的新沙烏地領導指揮架構尚未經受考驗、沙國空中支援有限，以及低估了胡塞武裝的準備。Senior Western, regional and Yemeni officials and sources said the Houthi breakthrough reflected various factors: deep divisions among anti-Houthi Yemeni factions, an untested Saudi-led command structure that replaced Emirati oversight, limited Saudi air support and an underestimation of Houthi preparations.

這名外交官表示，胡塞武裝已悄悄集結約10萬名戰士，兵力遠多於對方部隊。他並說：「包括沙烏地人在內，所有人都沒有察覺這場集結，也誤判了胡塞武裝的意圖。」The diplomat said the Houthis had quietly assembled about 100,000 fighters, vastly outnumbering forces on the opposing side, adding: "Everyone, including the Saudis, missed this build-up and miscalculated the Houthis' intentions.”

倫敦智庫查塔姆研究所研究員尼爾・奎廉形容，這場攻勢是一次明顯的情報失靈。他說：「他們就是沒有接收到訊號。他們就是沒有看見跡象。」Neil Quilliam, a fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, described the offensive as a glaring intelligence failure, saying: "They just weren't picking up the signal. They just weren't seeing the signs."

葉門政治分析家法瑞亞・穆斯利米補充說：「沙烏地人在葉門措手不及。」Yemeni political analyst Farea Al-Muslimi added: "The Saudis were caught off guard in Yemen."

沙國支持部隊的潰敗，讓胡塞武裝除了領土之外，又獲得另一項戰利品——撤退時被遺棄的大批美國與沙國供應的先進武器。The collapse of Saudi-backed forces handed the Houthis another prize beyond territory — a sizeable cache of advanced U.S.- and Saudi-supplied weaponry abandoned during the retreat.

地區消息人士表示，這批戰利品可能會強化該組織的軍事能力，提供有關對手裝備的寶貴情報，並進一步加深外界對沙國蒙受羞辱性失敗的印象。The haul, according to regional sources, is likely to bolster the group's military capabilities, provide valuable intelligence on adversaries' equipment and further reinforce perceptions of a humiliating Saudi defeat.

阿拉伯聯合大公國政治分析家阿卜杜勒哈勒克・阿卜杜拉說：「葉門政府軍就像紙牌屋。他們沒有抵抗。完全沒有。完全沒有。」"The Yemeni government forces were like a house of cards. They didn't resist. Completely. Completely," said Abdulkhaleq Abdallah, a political analyst in the United Arab Emirates.

這次挫敗也暴露出，若要發動反攻，國際支持可能相當有限。兩名西方官員表示，美國與歐洲國家都不準備提供直接軍事支援，而華府及其盟友甚至沒有加入沙國主導、7月宣布成立的海上防衛聯盟。The setback has also exposed how limited international support for a counteroffensive may be. Two Western officials said neither the United States nor European countries were prepared to offer direct military backing, and that Washington and its allies had not even joined a Saudi-led maritime defence coalition announced in July.

沙烏地官員未回應本文的採訪詢問。Saudi officials did not respond to a request to comment for this article.

盟友潰散，夥伴卻步ALLIES COLLAPSE, PARTNERS HESITATE

在伊朗支持的武裝人員如今掌握足以威脅沙國石油出口與紅海航運的領土後，沙烏地王儲穆罕默德・本・沙爾曼（Mohammed bin Salman，MbS）前往開羅尋求協助，以遏止華府拒絕介入後的後續衝擊。With Iran-backed fighters now holding territory that can threaten Saudi oil exports and Red Sea shipping, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) went to Cairo to seek help containing the fallout after Washington declined to intervene.

兩名地區消息人士表示，利雅德希望埃及在紅海行動中扮演角色，這讓人想起開羅2015年的介入，當時埃及海軍與空軍協助確保曼德海峽安全。目前尚未立即得知開羅是否會同意。Two regional sources said Riyadh wanted Egypt to play a role in Red Sea operations, recalling Cairo's intervention in 2015 when its naval and air forces helped secure Bab el-Mandeb. There was no immediate word on whether Cairo would agree.

針對穆罕默德是否已要求埃及提供軍事支援，埃及外交部未立即回應採訪詢問。Egypt's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment when asked whether MbS had asked for Egyptian military support.

胡塞武裝似乎也在利用其戰果，施壓要求更廣泛的政治讓步。The Houthis also appear to be using their gains to press for broader political concessions.

美國前談判代表丹尼斯・羅斯表示，該組織希望利雅德解除對荷台達港和沙那機場的限制、為戰爭提供補償，並縮減對葉門國際承認政府的支持。Former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross said the group wants Riyadh to lift restrictions on Hodeidah port and Sanaa airport, provide compensation for the war and scale back support for Yemen's internationally recognised government.

羅斯說：「我不認為沙烏地人能輕易接受他們提出的那類要求。」"I don't think the Saudis can easily give in to the kinds of demands that they're making," Ross said.

一名波斯灣官員表示，沙烏地阿拉伯如今面臨的選擇越來越少。若任由胡塞武裝鞏固戰果，可能使戰術勝利轉化為持久的戰略籌碼；但若採取更大規模的軍事回應，則可能促使攻擊深入沙國境內。A Gulf official said Saudi Arabia now faced a narrowing set of choices. Allowing the Houthis to consolidate their gains risked turning tactical victories into lasting strategic leverage, while a larger military response could prompt attacks deeper inside the kingdom.

這名官員說：「如果你無法讓胡塞武裝付出足夠代價，你就會成為他們的人質。」"If you don't inflict enough pain on the Houthis, you become hostage to them," the official said.

控制曼德海峽周邊領土，可能加深胡塞武裝的區域觸角，使非洲之角更容易落入其後勤與走私網絡的可及範圍。曼德海峽位於阿拉伯半島上的葉門與非洲海岸的吉布地、厄利垂亞之間。Control of territory around Bab el-Mandeb — which lies between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast — could deepen the Houthis' regional reach, putting the Horn of Africa within easier reach of their logistical and smuggling networks.

再加上伊朗對荷姆茲海峽的影響力，這個立足點讓德黑蘭及其盟友對兩處關鍵海上咽喉要道具備影響力。荷姆茲海峽也是全球能源供應的另一條重要通道。Combined with Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, another vital route for global energy supplies, the foothold gives Tehran and its allies influence over two critical maritime choke points.

穆罕默德的外交政策策略原本建立在透過與伊朗緩和關係來穩定區域局勢；但自美伊戰爭開始以來，隨著他的經濟轉型議程承受越來越大的壓力，這項策略已經瓦解，也使這位沙國實質統治者面臨更大壓力。MbS's foreign policy strategy, built on trying to stabilise the region via a détente with Iran, has unravelled since the start of the U.S.-Iran war as his economic transformation agenda comes under mounting strain, increasing pressure on the kingdom's de facto ruler.

西方在葉門沒有提供軍事援助，這些強權也未加入新成立的防衛聯盟，暴露出沙國在極度脆弱的時刻動員支持的能力有限。The absence of Western military assistance in Yemen, and the absence of these powers from a newly formed defence coalition, exposed the limits of its ability to rally support at a moment of acute vulnerability.

利雅德似乎越來越常遭對手搶占先機，盟友也未能滿足其需要。Riyadh appears increasingly to have been outmaneuvered by its adversaries and left wanting by its allies.

葉門陷阱THE YEMEN TRAP

胡塞武裝的攻勢揭露沙烏地與美國戰略中的盲點：當華府及其盟友把焦點放在直接遏制伊朗時，德黑蘭則把戰場從伊拉克擴大到紅海，並把能源資產、航運路線與代理人作為施壓工具。The Houthi offensive revealed a blind spot in Saudi and U.S. strategy: while Washington and its allies focused on containing Iran directly, Tehran widened the battlefield by opening fronts from Iraq to the Red Sea, using energy assets, shipping routes and proxies as instruments of pressure.

胡塞武裝突破的更大意義，不只在於對沙烏地阿拉伯造成打擊，也在於伊朗的盟友在加薩、敘利亞和黎巴嫩遭遇重大挫敗後，這次突破為伊朗在整個區域的影響力恢復了動能。The larger significance of the Houthi breakthrough lies not only in the blow to Saudi Arabia but in the momentum it restores to Iran's influence across the region, after major setbacks to its allies in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

法瑞亞・穆斯利米說，對伊朗而言，這是「三贏」。For Iran it's a "win-win-win," said Farea Al-Muslimi.

一些政治分析家說，更具後果的打擊並非戰場上的逆轉，而是華府不願出手援助其盟友。他們表示，這個訊號讓對手更加大膽，削弱利雅德的籌碼，也強化了外界對美國安全保證可靠性的疑慮。Some political analysts say the more consequential blow is not the battlefield reversal but Washington's reluctance to come to its ally's aid. That signal, they say, has emboldened adversaries, weakened Riyadh's leverage and reinforced doubts over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.

穆斯利米形容，華府拒絕協助防衛沙國領土，是數十年來「對沙烏地—美國安排最大的否定」。Al-Muslimi described Washington's refusal to help defend Saudi territory as "the biggest dismissing of the Saudi-American arrangement" in decades.

他說：「美國人說不。利雅德與華府關係中的那種默契，從未像現在這樣受到考驗。」"The Americans are saying No," he said. "That kind of understanding in the relationship between Riyadh and Washington has never been tested more than now."

葉門長期以來擊敗外國強權的紀錄——從1960年代的埃及，到蘇聯，以及近年的美國與沙烏地阿拉伯——有助於解釋為何利雅德尋求夥伴的努力可能只會得到有限成果。Yemen's long record of defeating foreign powers - from Egypt in the 1960s to the Soviets and, more recently, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia - helps explain why Riyadh's search for partners may yield only limited results.

似乎很少有區域強權急於更深地捲入這場衝突。外部勢力屢次嘗試介入，卻一再受挫，也讓葉門被視為外國軍事野心的墳場。Few regional powers appear eager to be drawn deeper into a conflict that has repeatedly frustrated attempts at outside intervention and acquired a reputation as a graveyard for foreign military ambitions.

穆斯利米說：「對每個被拖入葉門的強權來說，葉門都是越南，也是阿富汗。」他指的是那些讓外國強權受挫的衝突。"Yemen is the Vietnam and Afghanistan of every power dragged into it," Muslimi said, referring to conflicts in which foreign powers were humbled.

他說：「沙烏地人在葉門失敗了，美國人在葉門失敗了。」他並提到埃及1960年代在葉門代價高昂的介入，補充說：「埃及人在葉門也失敗了。」"The Saudis failed in Yemen, the Americans failed in Yemen," he said, adding in reference to Egypt's costly intervention in Yemen in the 1960s: "The Egyptians failed in Yemen."

（提穆爾・阿扎里於利雅德、瑪爾瓦・拉沙德於倫敦補充報導；薩米亞・納庫爾撰稿；提摩西・赫里蒂奇編輯）(Additional reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh, Marwa Rashad in London; Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage)