巴西生活成本壓力引發民怨，削弱魯拉連任選情

記者 Brendan O'Boyle、Lais Morais 與 Marcela AyresBy Brendan O'Boyle, Lais Morais and Marcela Ayres

聖保羅／巴西利亞，9月26日（路透社）—— 在聖保羅歷史中心附近一家肉舖工作的克雷頓・札卡里奧托（Kleyton Zacarioto）表示，店裡客流量多年來一直在放緩；他說，這是因為食品價格長期上漲。SAO PAULO/BRASILIA, Sept 26 (Reuters) - From the butcher's shop where he works near Sao Paulo's historic center, Kleyton Zacarioto says customer traffic has been slowing for years thanks, he says, to a long period of rising food prices.

家庭預算長期受壓，讓39歲的札卡里奧托不支持左翼總統路易斯・伊納西歐・魯拉・達席爾瓦（Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva）在下個月選舉中爭取第四個任期。札卡里奧托說，魯拉是他唯一確定不會投票支持的候選人；不過他也承認，魯拉在2000年代首次執政時「做過好事」。The prolonged squeeze on household budgets has turned the 39-year-old against leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's bid for a fourth term in next month's election. Zacarioto says Lula is the only candidate he knows he will not vote for, though he recognized the president "did good things" when he was first in office in the 2000s.

他說：「領最低工資的人根本沒有辦法出頭。」“Someone who earns a minimum wage has no way to get ahead,” he said.

80歲的魯拉正要求選民保持耐心，同時強調失業率創歷史新低、不平等下降，以及近幾個月通膨趨緩，藉此主張經濟狀況比表面看起來更好。The 80-year-old Lula is asking voters for patience, while touting record low unemployment, falling inequality, and recent months of easing inflation to argue the economy is better than it seems.

但札卡里奧托的不滿，反映出疫情以來全球現任政府都面臨的一項挑戰：即使經濟指標改善，許多選民仍感受到多年高物價帶來的壓力，政府要如何說服他們這些指標有意義。But Zacarioto's frustration reflects a challenge that has dogged incumbents around the world since the pandemic: persuading voters that improving economic indicators matter when many still feel squeezed by years of higher prices.

魯拉在近期一支競選廣告中承諾：「我知道現在還不是很好，但我保證通膨會維持在可控範圍。」他並表示，自己知道入不敷出是什麼感受。"I know it's still not great, but I guarantee inflation will stay under control," Lula promised in a recent campaign spot, saying he knew what it was like to not make end's meet.

數月來，民調顯示魯拉與參議員弗拉維奧・波索納洛（Flavio Bolsonaro）選情膠著。弗拉維奧是前右翼總統雅伊爾・波索納洛（Jair Bolsonaro）之子；雅伊爾因被判企圖政變罪名成立而遭禁止參選。For months, polls have shown a neck-and-neck race between Lula and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, who was barred from the race after being convicted of an attempted coup.

民調顯示，經濟是魯拉難以拉開與波索納洛參議員差距的主要原因之一。Polls suggest the economy is one of the main reasons Lula has struggled to fend off Senator Bolsonaro.

根據 Quaest 於9月公布的民調，近半數巴西人表示過去一年經濟變得更糟；相比之下，只有19%的人認為經濟有所改善。Nearly half of Brazilians say the economy has gotten worse in the past year, according to a Quaest poll published in September, compared to just 19% who say the economy improved.

波索納洛參議員將薪水不如以往夠用的憂慮，作為競選核心主軸，經常拿目前的超市價格與他父親擔任總統時期相比。Senator Bolsonaro has made concerns that paychecks do not stretch as far as they once did a centerpiece of his campaign, frequently contrasting current supermarket prices with those during his father's presidency.

魯拉陣營則以名為「謊言市場」（Market of Lies）的網站反擊，駁斥相關說法。魯拉陣營也向負責監督巴西選舉的高等選舉法院提出申訴，指控這名參議員的競選團隊就物價說謊。Lula's campaign has pushed back with a website dubbed "Market of Lies" to dispute the claims. It has also filed a complaint in the Superior Electoral Court, which oversees elections in Brazil, accusing the senator's campaign of lying about prices.

「氛圍衰退」衝擊巴西THE 'VIBECESSION' HITS BRAZIL

專家表示，生活成本之爭反映出一項落差：一方面勞動市場與通膨指標正在改善，另一方面許多家庭的日常感受卻並非如此。Experts say the debate over the cost of living reflects a gap between improving labor and inflation measures and what many households experience day to day.

政治分析師兼作家托馬斯・特勞曼（Thomas Traumann）表示：「所有主要數據都顯示，這是一個表現不錯的政府。事實是，普羅大眾就是不同意。」"All the big figures say that this has been a good government," said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and author. "The fact is that everyday folks just don't agree with that."

特勞曼將此與美國總統喬・拜登（Joe Biden）2024年面臨的困境相比：正面的總體經濟數據與負面的消費者情緒之間出現斷裂，拜登難以彌合選民的這種落差。經濟評論員凱拉・斯坎倫（Kyla Scanlon）將當時稱為「氛圍衰退」（vibecession）。Traumann drew comparisons to US President Joe Biden's struggles in 2024 to bridge a disconnect among voters between positive macroeconomic data and negative consumer sentiment, a moment economics commentator Kyla Scanlon dubbed the "vibecession."

民調機構 Quaest 創辦人兼執行長費利佩・努內斯（Felipe Nunes）表示：「政府有可以拿出來說的政績，但選民問的是，這些成果有多少進到自己家裡。選民是用自己支付帳單、消費商品與服務，以及達成個人目標的能力，來評斷經濟。」"The government has achievements it can point to, but voters are asking how much of those gains have made it into their own households," said Felipe Nunes, founder and CEO of the pollster Quaest. "Voters judge the economy by their ability to pay bills, consume goods and services, and achieve their personal goals."

食品價格與債務負擔上升，有助於解釋為何許多家庭在疫情後的消費能力幾乎沒有改善。Food prices and rising debt burdens help explain why many families have seen little improvement in their post-pandemic spending power.

雖然食品通膨已大幅放緩，價格甚至在6月至8月下跌，但多年來價格陡升仍持續壓縮家庭預算，食品價格也仍遠高於疫情前水準。While food inflation has slowed sharply — and prices even fell in June to August — years of steep price increases continue to strain household budgets, with prices remaining well above pre-pandemic levels.

同時，央行數據顯示，6月家庭償債支出（不含房貸）占收入比重達到創紀錄的26.6%。快速成長的金融科技公司以高利率提供容易取得的信貸，線上博弈熱潮又吸走數十億巴西雷亞爾的家庭收入，讓許多家庭陷入財務困境。At the same time, household debt service excluding mortgages reached a record 26.6% of income in June, according to central bank data, as fast-growing fintechs offered easy credit at steep interest rates and a boom in online betting absorbed billions of reais of household income, pushing many families into financial distress.

巴西13.75%的基準利率加重了這項負擔；這是全球最高的實質利率之一。央行在密切關注通膨的同時，已開始逐步降息。The burden has been exacerbated by Brazil's 13.75% benchmark interest rate, one of the highest real rates in the world, which the central bank has gradually started to lower while keeping a close eye on inflation.

傑圖利奧・瓦加斯基金會（Fundacao Getulio Vargas）經濟學家馬塞洛・內里（Marcelo Neri）表示：「如果你看勞動市場數據、貧窮指標和中產階級擴張，會看到近年來有顯著進展。但如果把累積的食品通膨、利率和線上博弈納入考量，結果可以說是一場雙方都進很多球的平手。」"If you look at labor-market data, poverty indicators and the expansion of the middle class, you see a picture of significant progress in recent years," said Marcelo Neri, an economist at Fundacao Getulio Vargas. "But when you factor in cumulative food inflation, interest rates and online betting, the result is, let's say, a draw with a lot of goals scored on both sides."

選民抱持懷疑SKEPTICAL VOTERS

魯拉已試圖因應。Lula has tried to react.

在第一輪投票前兩週，魯拉推出看似旨在提高可支配所得的措施，包括將一項指標性福利計畫提高15%；這項措施將在10月下旬第二輪選舉前生效。他也宣布一項行政命令，自10月6日起禁止線上博弈。With two weeks to go before the first round, Lula rolled out measures that seemed aimed at boosting disposable income, including a 15% increase in a landmark welfare program, which will take effect before the second round of the elections in late October. He also announced an executive order banning online betting from October 6.

但民調顯示，這些措施尚未對選民情緒產生有意義的影響。But polls suggest the measures have yet to make a meaningful impact on voter sentiment.

回到市場裡，卡洛斯・阿爾維斯・達席爾瓦（Carlos Alves da Silva）已在 Barraca do Juca 蔬果攤工作15年；攤位牆上貼滿海報，展示1990年代曾在那裡拍攝的一部肥皂劇。他說，如果魯拉勝選，這個攤位撐不到2028年。Back at the market, Carlos Alves da Silva has spent 15 years at the Barraca do Juca produce stand, its walls papered with posters showing the 1990s soap opera filmed there. He says it will not survive to 2028 if Lula wins.

支持波索納洛參議員的阿爾維斯說：「就是不斷負債，然後隔月再想辦法把錢還掉。」"It's just a matter of taking on debt and scrambling to pay it off the following month," said Alves, who supports Senator Bolsonaro.

候選人都試圖提出前進方向。Candidates have tried to show a path forward.

波索納洛參議員主張透過減稅、改善運輸連結、擴大穀物倉儲，以及提高國內肥料生產來降低食品成本。魯拉則指出農業產量成長、政府糧食庫存，以及擴大農村信貸。Senator Bolsonaro is campaigning on lower food costs through tax cuts, better transport links, expanded grain storage and higher domestic fertilizer production. Lula points to growing farm output, government food stocks, and expanded rural credit.

但這些提案尚未引起許多巴西人的共鳴。But those proposals have yet to resonate with many Brazilians.

來自瑪瑙斯、到市場造訪的康塞桑・梅爾基亞德斯（Conceicao Melquiades）正苦於電費與食品雜貨價格上漲。她說，自己沒有看到候選人提出任何「真正的方案」。Conceicao Melquiades, visiting the market from Manaus, who is struggling to keep up with rising electricity and grocery prices, said she hasn’t seen any “real proposals” from the candidates.

「到頭來不會有太大改變。」"In the end not much is going to change."

（Brendan O'Boyle、Lais Morais 聖保羅報導，Marcela Ayres 巴西利亞報導；Brendan O'Boyle 撰稿；Manuela Andreoni 與 Aurora Ellis 編輯）(Reporting by Brendan O'Boyle and Lais Morais in Sao Paulo and Marcela Ayres in Brasilia; Writing by Brendan O'Boyle; editing by Manuela Andreoni and Aurora Ellis)