【3月16日】看軍聞學英語

■林國賓

原文：

Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to end with a conventional defeat on the battlefield. Instead, it may conclude with the internal collapse of one side due to depleted resources and an inability to sustain a long-term conflict.

This assessment comes from Ukrainian historian Yaroslav Hrytsak, speaking after his lecture at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, according to Ukrinform.

"Wars end with the collapse of one side. The key question is who will break first. If Ukraine maintains access to Western support, the risk of collapse for Russia grows," Hrytsak said.

He said that it is important to show Russian society that Putin’s regime has no chance of winning and is only leading the country into a deep crisis.

"They are willing to endure as long as the war doesn’t affect them directly. The goal for Ukraine and the West is to make Russians feel the impact of this war. The regime can only collapse if people see that Putin has no chance of winning, and that what he is doing in Russia leads nowhere positive," Hrytsak added.

中譯：

俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭不太可能以傳統的戰場潰敗告終，相反地，可能以其中一方因資源枯竭、無法承受長期戰爭而引發內部崩潰收場。

據「烏克蘭國家通訊社」報導，這一判斷出自烏克蘭歷史學家赫里查克，他在海牙應用科技大學發表演講後，作出上述評論。

赫里查克說：「戰爭往往以一方的崩潰結束，關鍵問題在於誰會先撐不住。如果烏克蘭能夠持續獲得西方支持，則俄羅斯崩潰的風險就會增加。」

他指出，重要的是要讓俄羅斯社會清楚看到蒲亭政權沒有任何取勝的可能，只是在把國家引向更深層的危機。

赫里查克補充說：「只要戰爭沒有直接影響到他們的日常生活，俄羅斯民眾就願意繼續忍受下去。烏克蘭與西方的目標是讓俄國人真正感受到這場戰爭帶來的衝擊。只有當人們意識到蒲亭毫無勝算，且他在俄羅斯所做的一切不會帶來任何正面結果時，這個政權才可能崩潰。」

-關鍵軍語-

※collapse：崩潰

※regime：政權