民調顯示民眾對全球機構信任上升，對美國擔任全球領袖較不安心

安德莉亞・夏拉爾 報導By Andrea Shalal

路透華盛頓9月16日電——一項針對全球逾3萬5000人的最新民調顯示，民眾持續支持全球合作，對國際機構的信任也上升，但對美國或中國擔任領導角色較不安心。事實上，許多人認為兩國都是威脅。WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - A new poll of over 35,000 people worldwide shows continued support for global cooperation and rising trust in international institutions, but less comfort with the United States or China taking leadership roles. In fact, many view both as a threat.

這項民調由洛克菲勒基金會委託，在7月21日至8月5日期間於34國進行，反映出受訪者對經濟發展與安全挑戰的看法悲觀；近70%受訪者表示，過去一年世界變得更糟。The survey, commissioned by the Rockefeller Foundation and conducted in 34 countries from July 21 to August 5, reflected a grim view of economic developments and security challenges, with nearly 70% saying the world had gotten worse over the past year.

受訪者中只有38%認為本國經濟會在未來五年改善，且兩大經濟體的樂觀程度大幅下滑。印度的樂觀比例下降26個百分點至50%，中國則下降16個百分點至56%。Only 38% of those surveyed felt their national economies would improve over the next five years, with optimism down sharply in two of the largest economies. Optimism fell 26 percentage points in India to 50% and 16 points in China to 56%.

儘管悲觀情緒普遍，57%受訪者表示，各國應合作解決安全等全球挑戰，即使這意味著要在部分國家利益上妥協。這一比例高於去年調查的55%。Despite widespread pessimism, 57% of those surveyed said countries should cooperate to solve global challenges such as security even if it means compromising on some national interests. That's up from 55% in last year's survey.

這項民調在下週紐約聯合國大會登場前發布。此前，中東戰爭已持續近七個月，擾亂全球能源市場、壓低經濟成長並推升通膨；而在此之前，美國總統唐納・川普對幾乎所有國家的進口商品課徵全面性關稅，引發一整年的動盪。The poll, released ahead of next week's United Nations General Assembly in New York, comes after nearly seven months of war in the Middle East that has upended global energy markets, lowered economic growth and fueled inflation. That followed a year of turmoil sparked by sweeping tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports from nearly every country.

美國與以色列於2月28日對伊朗發動戰爭，隨後德黑蘭關閉荷姆茲海峽；該海峽原本承載全球20%的石油運輸。衝突已蔓延至黎巴嫩、葉門和沙烏地阿拉伯等其他國家，進一步推升油價。The United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, followed by Tehran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which had carried 20% of the world's oil. The conflict has spread to other countries, including Lebanon, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, adding more upward pressure on oil prices.

民調顯示，受訪者對美國或中國作為全球領袖並不感到安心，且61%支持各國在不讓這兩個全球最大經濟體參與的情況下合作。The poll showed that the people surveyed were not comfortable with the United States or China as a global leader, and 61% supported countries working together without the participation of either of the world's two largest economies.

加拿大在擔任世界事務領導角色方面獲得最高安心度，達60%，其後是日本（58%）與澳洲（55%）。歐盟和英國緊追在後，分別為55%與54%；聯合國則為52%。Canada received the highest level of comfort for taking a leading role in world affairs at 60%, followed by Japan (58%) and Australia (55%). The European Union and Britain were closely behind, with 55% and 54%, while the United Nations stood at 52%.

相較之下，只有39%受訪者對美國擔任領導角色感到安心，對中國感到安心者為37%。俄羅斯受到更負面的看待，只有26%感到安心。By contrast, just 39% were comfortable with the United States taking a leading role and 37% with China. Russia was viewed even more negatively, with just 26% comfortable.

洛克菲勒基金會副總裁艾瑞克・佩洛夫斯基表示，民調結果顯示，加拿大總理馬克・卡尼倡議的「中等強權」路線在全球確實具有可信度。卡尼也曾稱中東戰爭是全球秩序的失敗。Eric Pelofsky, vice president of the Rockefeller Foundation, said the poll results showed the "middle powers" approach championed by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had real credibility globally. Carney has also called the war in the Middle East a failure of the global order.

他表示，這反映出美國的「全球領導力嚴重流失」。「人們正在討論全球問題的解決方案，而且不再問美國人怎麼想。這是一記重擊。」"It reflects a deep erosion in global leadership" for the United States, he said. "People are discussing solutions to global problems and are no longer asking what do the Americans think. That's a gut punch."

開發中經濟體與已開發經濟體的看法差異鮮明：開發中國家有53%對中國感到安心，富裕國家則為23%。俄羅斯的差距為27個百分點，美國為17個百分點。2025年的調查未提出這個問題。Views differed sharply in developing and advanced economies, with 53% of developing countries comfortable with China, against 23% in wealthier nations. Russia had a 27-point gap and the United States 17 points. The question was not asked in 2025.

國際機構的評分在過去一年上升。對世界衛生組織的信任從61%升至69%，聯合國的分數則從58%升至62%。International institutions saw their results rise over the past year. Trust in the World Health Organization rose to 69% from 61%, while the U.N.'s score rose to 62% from 58%.

世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織和國際刑事法院在去年調查中都未達及格水準，今年則出現最大幅度的提升。The World Bank, International Monetary Fund and International Criminal Court, which all got failing grades in last year's survey, saw the biggest gains.

對世界銀行的信任從46%升至55%；國際貨幣基金組織從43%微升至51%；國際刑事法院得分54%，高於去年的48%。世界貿易組織得分57%，高於50%。Trust in the World Bank rose to 55% from 46%, the International Monetary Fund edged to 51% from 43% and the ICC scored 54%, up from 48% last year. The World Trade Organization scored 57%, up from 50%.

若不計入受訪者對本國的評估，42%受訪者將俄羅斯視為重大威脅，相較之下，美國為34%、中國為30%。俄羅斯在14國是最常被點名的憂慮國家，歐洲記錄到的比例最高。Excluding assessment of respondents' own country, 42% viewed Russia as a major threat, compared with 34% for the U.S. and 30% for China. Russia was the most widely named country of concern in 14 countries, with the highest rates recorded in Europe.

美國在15國被視為最大威脅，其中印尼（73%）、巴西（59%）、墨西哥（58%）和土耳其（57%）的比例最高。The United States was seen as the greatest threat in 15 countries, with the highest percentages seen in Indonesia (73%), Brazil (59%), Mexico (58%) and Turkey (57%).

（安德莉亞・夏拉爾報導；史蒂芬・科茨編輯）(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Stephen Coates)