解析：為何衣索比亞提格雷新戰事恐引發更大衝突

大衛・路易斯（David Lewis）報導By David Lewis

倫敦，9月23日（路透社）—— 衣索比亞北部提格雷（Tigray）的地方部隊週三控制了3座機場，並在多處地點與聯邦軍交火；在緊張情勢持續升高數月後，此舉顯示一場重大攻勢已經展開。LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Regional forces in northern Ethiopia's Tigray on Wednesday seized control of three airports and clashed in multiple locations with federal troops, signalling the start of a major offensive after months of growing tensions.

此舉打破了結束2020年至2022年提格雷人民解放陣線（Tigray People's Liberation Front, TPLF）與聯邦部隊衝突的和平協議，而當前背景是衣索比亞與厄利垂亞（Eritrea）關係惡化、蘇丹內戰、紅海出海口緊張情勢，以及非洲之角被捲入中東衝突。The move shatters a peace deal that ended the 2020-2022 conflict between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces, and comes amid a backdrop of deteriorating ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Sudan's civil war, tensions over Red Sea access, and the Horn of Africa being dragged into Middle East conflicts.

為何提格雷新一波戰事恐引發衣索比亞更大規模戰爭？WHY DOES NEW FIGHTING IN TIGRAY THREATEN A WIDER WAR IN ETHIOPIA?

正式終結一場造成數十萬人死亡衝突的《普利托利亞協議》（Pretoria Agreement），數月來一直承受壓力，雙方均指控對方違反協議。The Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended a conflict that killed hundreds of thousands of people, has been under strain for months, each side accusing the other of violating the deal.

在提格雷人民解放陣線內部出現分裂後，和平進程開始瓦解；該黨強硬派系重新掌控當地，並將臨時行政當局趕下台。The peace process began to unravel after splits emerged within the TPLF, and a hardline faction of the party reasserted control over the region, kicking out an interim administration.

最近，提格雷人民解放陣線與衣索比亞各地另外6個武裝團體結盟，其中包括戰爭中的昔日敵人，目標是推翻總理阿比・艾哈邁德政府。Most recently, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia, including former enemies from the war, aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.

目前尚不清楚該聯盟有多少成員參與了週三的衝突，但衣索比亞境內有許多裝備精良的地方武裝團體。It is not clear how many members of the alliance were involved in clashes on Wednesday but Ethiopia is home to many heavily armed regional groups.

阿比政府指控厄利垂亞向該聯盟成員提供財務支持，阿斯瑪拉（Asmara）則否認這些指控。Abiy's government has accused Eritrea of financially backing members of the alliance, allegations Asmara has denied.

厄利垂亞將扮演什麼角色？WHAT ROLE WILL ERITREA PLAY?

隨著局勢發展，各方目光都將聚焦阿斯瑪拉。自1993年獨立以來，厄利垂亞與衣索比亞首都阿迪斯阿貝巴（Addis Ababa）的關係一路動盪。As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on Asmara, which has endured a turbulent relationship with Addis Ababa since independence in 1993.

阿比上台後不久，因結束衣索比亞與厄利垂亞長達20年的敵對狀態，於2019年獲得諾貝爾和平獎。Soon after coming to power, Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending two decades of hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

隔年內戰爆發時，厄利垂亞部隊當時支持衣索比亞聯邦軍。自《普利托利亞和平協議》簽署後，雙方關係惡化；厄利垂亞雖曾參戰，卻並非該協議締約方。When the civil war erupted the following year, Eritrean forces then supported Ethiopia's federal army. Relations have deteriorated since the Pretoria peace agreement, which Eritrea was not party to despite having fought in the war.

紅海出海口是另一個引爆點。Access to the Red Sea is another flash point.

內陸國衣索比亞曾有數十年擁有海岸線，直到厄利垂亞脫離。此後，阿迪斯阿貝巴一再主張，恢復出海口——特別是阿薩布港（Assab）——對其長期安全與經濟發展至關重要。阿斯瑪拉則表示，擔心阿迪斯阿貝巴會試圖以武力奪取阿薩布。Landlocked Ethiopia had a coastline for decades until Eritrea broke away. Since then, Addis Ababa has repeatedly argued that restoring access to the sea - specifically the port of Assab - is vital for its long term security and economic development. Asmara has said it fears Addis Ababa will try to take Assab by force.

本月稍早，美國政府解除對厄利垂亞國防軍及其他實體的制裁。Earlier this month, the US government lifted sanctions on Eritrean Defense Forces and other entities.

目前尚不清楚解除制裁會對衣索比亞境內任何衝突造成何種影響，但外界認為，此舉是川普政府向厄利垂亞正對沙烏地阿拉伯的戰略海岸線示意，同時警告衣索比亞不要與阿斯瑪拉開戰。It is not clear what impact removing sanctions would have on any conflict in Ethiopia, but the move is seen as a nod by the Trump administration to Eritrea’s strategic coastline ‌opposite Saudi Arabia, and warning Ethiopia not to go to war with Asmara.

哪些區域風險讓這次情勢升高？WHICH REGIONAL RISKS RAISE THE STAKES THIS TIME AROUND?

外交官警告，若提格雷戰事重燃，將不再是大致侷限於衣索比亞境內的衝突。Diplomats warn that a renewed Tigray war would no longer be a largely isolated Ethiopian conflict.

相反地，這場戰事將在非洲之角面臨多年來最動盪安全環境之際展開：蘇丹戰火正熾，索馬利亞持續不穩，尼羅河相關緊張情勢升高，而來自中東的戰爭與地緣政治也正擴散至當地。Instead, it would unfold as the Horn of Africa faces its most volatile security environment in years, with war raging in Sudan, persistent instability in Somalia, tensions over the Nile and expanding war and geopolitics from the Middle East spilling into the region.

衣索比亞被控支持準軍事組織快速支援部隊（Rapid Support Forces, RSF），該部隊正與蘇丹軍方交戰，這場衝突是全球傷亡最慘重的衝突之一。Ethiopia has been accused of backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group, which is fighting Sudan’s army in one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.

衣索比亞否認提供這項支持；而這被指稱的支持與其和阿拉伯聯合大公國（United Arab Emirates, UAE）的密切關係相符。阿聯是該區域最積極的波斯灣國家，聯合國專家表示，阿聯也在支持快速支援部隊。阿聯則否認這些指控。This support, which Ethiopia denies, is in line with its close relationship with the United Arab Emirates, the most active Gulf power in the region which UN experts say is also supporting the RSF. The UAE has denied the accusations.

另一方面，厄利垂亞與蘇丹較為接近，並已與埃及建立相對密切的關係；埃及是衣索比亞長期以來的對手。埃及與蘇丹都將衣索比亞在尼羅河支流上興建的衣索比亞復興大壩（Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam），視為對其至關重要水源供應的嚴重威脅。For its part, Eritrea is closer to Sudan and has cultivated relatively close ties with Egypt, which is a long-time rival of Ethiopia. Egypt and Sudan both see Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, built on a tributary of the Nile, as a serious threat to their vital water supplies.

（亞歷珊卓・哈德森編輯）(Editing by Alexandra Hudson)