胡塞閃電攻勢使沙烏地阿拉伯暴露弱點、伊朗更受鼓舞

薩米亞・納庫爾（Samia Nakhoul）與提穆爾・阿札里（Timour Azhari）報導By Samia Nakhoul and Timour Azhari

安卡拉，9月16日（路透）—— 胡塞武裝奪取可俯瞰曼德海峽的土地，使沙烏地阿拉伯遭遇多年來在葉門最嚴重的挫敗，暴露出情報失靈、葉門盟友潰散，以及美國保護的侷限。ANKARA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Houthi capture of ground overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has dealt Saudi Arabia its gravest setback in Yemen in years, exposing intelligence failures, the collapse of Yemeni allies and the limits of U.S. protection.

胡塞武裝本週沿紅海沿岸推進，並奪取海峽入口處多座島嶼。這條海峽是全球石油供應的重要動脈；隨著伊朗及其盟友擴大影響力，沙烏地王國也被迫急尋支援。A Houthi advance this week along the Red Sea coast and the capture of islands at the mouth of the strait, a vital artery for global oil supplies, has also left the kingdom scrambling for backing as Iran and its allies expand their reach.

西方、區域及葉門高階官員與消息人士表示，胡塞武裝的突破反映多重因素：反胡塞的葉門派系嚴重分裂、取代阿聯監督的沙烏地主導指揮架構尚未經受考驗、沙烏地空中支援有限，以及低估了胡塞武裝的準備。Senior Western, regional and Yemeni officials and sources said the Houthi breakthrough reflected various factors: deep divisions among anti-Houthi Yemeni factions, an untested Saudi-led command structure that replaced Emirati oversight, limited Saudi air support and an underestimation of Houthi preparations.

這名外交官表示，胡塞武裝已悄悄集結約10萬名戰士，兵力遠多於對方，並說：「所有人，包括沙烏地人，都錯過了這場集結，並誤判了胡塞武裝的意圖。」The diplomat said the Houthis had quietly assembled about 100,000 fighters, vastly outnumbering forces on the opposing side, adding: "Everyone, including the Saudis, missed this build-up and miscalculated the Houthis' intentions.”

倫敦智庫查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）研究員尼爾・奎利安（Neil Quilliam）形容這場攻勢是明顯的情報失誤，並說：「他們就是沒有接收到訊號。他們就是沒有看見徵兆。」Neil Quilliam, a fellow at London's Chatham House think tank, described the offensive as a glaring intelligence failure, saying: "They just weren't picking up the signal. They just weren't seeing the signs."

葉門政治分析師法雷亞・穆斯利米（Farea Al-Muslimi）補充說：「沙烏地人在葉門措手不及。」Yemeni political analyst Farea Al-Muslimi added: "The Saudis were caught off guard in Yemen."

沙烏地支持的部隊潰敗，使胡塞武裝除領土外又獲得另一項戰利品——撤退時遭遺棄的大批美國與沙烏地供應的先進武器。The collapse of Saudi-backed forces handed the Houthis another prize beyond territory — a sizeable cache of advanced U.S.- and Saudi-supplied weaponry abandoned during the retreat.

區域消息人士表示，這批武器可能強化該組織的軍事能力，提供關於對手裝備的寶貴情報，並進一步加深外界對沙烏地蒙受羞辱性敗仗的印象。The haul, according to regional sources, is likely to bolster the group's military capabilities, provide valuable intelligence on adversaries' equipment and further reinforce perceptions of a humiliating Saudi defeat.

阿拉伯聯合大公國政治分析師阿卜杜勒哈利克・阿卜杜拉（Abdulkhaleq Abdallah）說：「葉門政府軍就像紙牌屋。他們沒有抵抗。完全沒有。徹底如此。」"The Yemeni government forces were like a house of cards. They didn't resist. Completely. Completely," said Abdulkhaleq Abdallah, a political analyst in the United Arab Emirates.

這次挫敗也暴露出，反攻可能獲得的國際支援有多有限。兩名西方官員表示，美國與歐洲國家都不準備提供直接軍事支援，而華府及其盟友甚至沒有加入沙烏地7月宣布成立的海上防衛聯盟。The setback has also exposed how limited international support for a counteroffensive may be. Two Western officials said neither the United States nor European countries were prepared to offer direct military backing, and that Washington and its allies had not even joined a Saudi-led maritime defence coalition announced in July.

沙烏地官員未回應本文採訪請求。Saudi officials did not respond to a request to comment for this article.

盟友潰散，夥伴猶豫ALLIES COLLAPSE, PARTNERS HESITATE

在伊朗支持的武裝分子如今掌控可威脅沙烏地石油出口與紅海航運的領土之際，沙烏地王儲穆罕默德・本・沙爾曼（Mohammed bin Salman，MbS）前往開羅，討論兩國軍事合作。此前華府拒絕直接軍事介入，沙烏地正試圖控制後續影響。With Iran-backed fighters now holding territory that can threaten Saudi oil exports and Red Sea shipping, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) went to Cairo to discuss military cooperation between the two countries as Saudi Arabia seeks to contain the fallout after Washington declined to directly intervene militarily.

兩名了解埃及會談的區域消息人士表示，利雅德希望埃及協助參與紅海行動。一名區域消息人士說，鑑於兩國關係密切，穆罕默德・本・沙爾曼請求總統阿卜杜勒・法塔赫・塞西（Abdel Fattah al-Sisi）就葉門提供軍事支援。目前尚無消息顯示開羅是否會同意。Two regional sources familiar with the meeting in Egypt said Riyadh wanted Egypt to help play a role in Red Sea operations. One regional source said MbS asked President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi for military support on Yemen given the close ties between the two countries. There was no immediate word on whether Cairo would agree.

一名沙烏地消息人士表示，這場會議早在2月美以對伊朗戰爭爆發前就已排定，「雖然顯然涵蓋最新發展，但也有完整的雙邊議題議程要討論。」A Saudi source said the meeting was scheduled long before the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began in February and "while it obviously covered the latest developments, it had the full agenda of bilateral issues to discuss."

埃及外交部被問及穆罕默德・本・沙爾曼是否曾討論埃及軍事支援時，未立即回應採訪請求。Egypt's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment when asked whether MbS had discussed Egyptian military support.

胡塞武裝似乎也在利用其斬獲，施壓要求更廣泛的政治讓步。The Houthis also appear to be using their gains to press for broader political concessions.

美國前談判代表丹尼斯・羅斯（Dennis Ross）表示，該組織希望利雅德解除對荷台達港與沙那機場的限制、為戰爭提供補償，並縮減對葉門國際承認政府的支持。Former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross said the group wants Riyadh to lift restrictions on Hodeidah port and Sanaa airport, provide compensation for the war and scale back support for Yemen's internationally recognised government.

羅斯說：「我不認為沙烏地能輕易接受他們提出的那類要求。」"I don't think the Saudis can easily give in to the kinds of demands that they're making," Ross said.

一名海灣官員表示，沙烏地阿拉伯如今面臨的選項愈來愈少。若讓胡塞武裝鞏固斬獲，可能使戰術勝利轉化為持久的戰略槓桿；但若作出更大規模軍事回應，則可能促使攻擊深入沙烏地境內。A Gulf official said Saudi Arabia now faced a narrowing set of choices. Allowing the Houthis to consolidate their gains risked turning tactical victories into lasting strategic leverage, while a larger military response could prompt attacks deeper inside the kingdom.

這名官員說：「如果你沒有讓胡塞武裝付出足夠代價，你就會淪為他們的人質。」"If you don't inflict enough pain on the Houthis, you become hostage to them," the official said.

曼德海峽位於阿拉伯半島上的葉門與非洲海岸的吉布地、厄利垂亞之間。掌控海峽周邊領土，可能加深胡塞武裝的區域影響力，使非洲之角更容易落入其後勤與走私網絡的觸及範圍。Control of territory around Bab el-Mandeb — which lies between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast — could deepen the Houthis' regional reach, putting the Horn of Africa within easier reach of their logistical and smuggling networks.

再加上伊朗對荷姆茲海峽這另一條全球能源供應要道的影響力，這處據點使德黑蘭及其盟友得以影響兩個關鍵海上咽喉要道。Combined with Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, another vital route for global energy supplies, the foothold gives Tehran and its allies influence over two critical maritime choke points.

穆罕默德・本・沙爾曼的外交政策策略，是試圖透過與伊朗緩和關係來穩定區域局勢；但自戰爭開始以來，這套策略已經瓦解。同時，他的經濟轉型議程承受愈來愈大的壓力，也增加了這位沙烏地實質統治者所面臨的壓力。MbS's foreign policy strategy, built on trying to stabilise the region via a détente with Iran, has unravelled since the start of the war as his economic transformation agenda comes under mounting strain, increasing pressure on the kingdom's de facto ruler.

西方在葉門缺乏軍事援助，而這些強權也未加入新成立的防衛聯盟，暴露出沙烏地在極度脆弱時刻動員支持的能力有限。The absence of Western military assistance in Yemen, and the absence of these powers from a newly formed defence coalition, exposed the limits of its ability to rally support at a moment of acute vulnerability.

利雅德看來愈來愈像是遭對手智取，並被盟友支援不足所困。Riyadh appears increasingly to have been outmaneuvered by its adversaries and left wanting by its allies.

葉門陷阱THE YEMEN TRAP

胡塞武裝的攻勢揭示沙烏地與美國戰略中的盲點：當華府及其盟友專注於直接圍堵伊朗時，德黑蘭則透過從伊拉克到紅海開闢戰線，擴大戰場，並把能源資產、航運路線和代理勢力作為施壓工具。The Houthi offensive revealed a blind spot in Saudi and U.S. strategy: while Washington and its allies focused on containing Iran directly, Tehran widened the battlefield by opening fronts from Iraq to the Red Sea, using energy assets, shipping routes and proxies as instruments of pressure.

胡塞武裝突破的更大意義，不只在於對沙烏地阿拉伯造成打擊，也在於伊朗盟友在加薩、敘利亞與黎巴嫩遭遇重大挫敗後，這次突破讓伊朗在區域內的影響力重新獲得動能。The larger significance of the Houthi breakthrough lies not only in the blow to Saudi Arabia but in the momentum it restores to Iran's influence across the region, after major setbacks to its allies in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.

法雷亞・穆斯利米說，對伊朗而言，這是「三贏」。For Iran it's a "win-win-win," said Farea Al-Muslimi.

一些政治分析師說，更具影響的打擊並不是戰場逆轉，而是華府不願出手援助盟友。他們說，這項訊號鼓舞了對手、削弱利雅德的籌碼，也加深外界對美國安全保證可靠性的疑慮。Some political analysts say the more consequential blow is not the battlefield reversal but Washington's reluctance to come to its ally's aid. That signal, they say, has emboldened adversaries, weakened Riyadh's leverage and reinforced doubts over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees.

穆斯利米形容，華府拒絕協助防衛沙烏地領土，是數十年來「對沙烏地—美國安排最嚴重的否定」。Al-Muslimi described Washington's refusal to help defend Saudi territory as "the biggest dismissing of the Saudi-American arrangement" in decades.

他說：「美國人在說不。利雅德與華府關係中的那種默契，從來沒有比現在受到更大的考驗。」"The Americans are saying No," he said. "That kind of understanding in the relationship between Riyadh and Washington has never been tested more than now."

葉門長期以來擊敗外國強權的紀錄——從1960年代的埃及，到蘇聯，以及更近期的美國與沙烏地阿拉伯——有助於解釋為何利雅德尋求夥伴的努力可能成果有限。Yemen's long record of defeating foreign powers - from Egypt in the 1960s to the Soviets and, more recently, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia - helps explain why Riyadh's search for partners may yield only limited results.

很少有區域強權看似急於更深捲入這場衝突；外部勢力屢次試圖介入卻受挫，也讓葉門有了外國軍事野心墳場的名聲。Few regional powers appear eager to be drawn deeper into a conflict that has repeatedly frustrated attempts at outside intervention and acquired a reputation as a graveyard for foreign military ambitions.

穆斯利米說：「葉門是每個被拖進去的強權所面臨的越南和阿富汗。」他指的是那些讓外國強權受挫的衝突。"Yemen is the Vietnam and Afghanistan of every power dragged into it," Muslimi said, referring to conflicts in which foreign powers were humbled.

他說：「沙烏地人在葉門失敗，美國人在葉門失敗。」他又提到埃及在1960年代代價高昂的葉門介入行動，補充說：「埃及人在葉門失敗。」"The Saudis failed in Yemen, the Americans failed in Yemen," he said, adding in reference to Egypt's costly intervention in Yemen in the 1960s: "The Egyptians failed in Yemen."

（利雅德提穆爾・阿札里、倫敦瑪瓦・拉沙德補充報導；薩米亞・納庫爾撰稿；提摩西・赫里蒂奇編輯）(Additional reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh, Marwa Rashad in London; Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by Timothy Heritage)