Clean energy or fossil fuel lock-in? Debate explodes over Thailand’s new power plan

Thailand’s draft power development plan (PDP) for the next 25 years has sparked a fierce backlash from environmental advocates and civic groups, who warn that the proposed blueprint locks the country into fossil fuels for decades to come.

“Every scenario listed in the draft plan includes new gas-fuelled power plants,” said Thanyaporn Sarapukdee, lead coordinator at Just Energy Transition (JET IN Thailand).

She spoke after studying the draft PDP (2026-2050), which sets out the roadmap for Thailand’s electricity generation under a commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. However, climate activists say the plan’s heavy reliance on natural gas makes that goal unachievable.

Thanyaporn pointed to a key admission made by the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) in the draft: if renewable energy were expanded to account for 89% of power generation, as per the plan’s most ambitious scenario, then natural gas consumption would plummet to about 800 million cubic feet daily.

The EPPO warned that such a drastic drop would render Thailand’s multibillion-baht investments in gas infrastructure virtually redundant.

“Are these investments the real reason why Thailand will be tied to fossil fuels for the next few decades?” she asked.

The 25-year roadmap

The 2026-2050 draft PDP was formulated to guide Thailand’s power production in line with global climate promises. The government states the new plan showcases its commitment to achieving net zero.

However, critics point to the planned construction of new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants before 2037. CCGTs, which rely mostly on fossil fuels, are currently the mainstay of Thailand’s power grid, supplying 60% to 70% of electricity demand.

However, the EPPO argues that the power plan will offset reliance on CCGTs by boosting the renewable supply to over 50% by 2037.

According to the draft, overall generation capacity will include 24,300 megawatts (MW) of solar energy, 14,500 MW in Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), 2,700 MW of wind energy, and 300 MW from small modular nuclear reactors.

However, the primary transition to clean energy will be made from 2038 onwards, mainly thanks to Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology and an accelerated shift to renewables. The plan targets 65% renewable supply by 2050.

It also leaves the door open for emerging clean technologies, including hydrogen and next-generation nuclear power.

The PDP presents four scenarios for transition to renewables, but EPPO strongly favours the “hybrid” option. Under this model, about 73% of electricity would be generated from renewable sources backed by CCS, with the rest generated from natural gas.

This hybrid formula would consume about 2,000 million cubic feet of natural gas daily from the Gulf of Thailand, which EPPO says would stabilise domestic supply and reduce the country’s reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

“We believe this is the middle path, balancing electricity costs, power system security and Thailand’s net-zero goals,” Wattanapong said.

Hidden costs burdening consumers

However, environmentalists warn that state agencies often ignore knock-on effects (so-called external costs) of their plans.

“Will local communities be forced to shoulder environmental and health risks whenever a new power plant goes up?” asked Dr Suteekan Maneejantra, Climate and Energy project officer at Greenpeace Thailand. “What about the effects on their health and livelihoods?”

The Chachoengsao Repower Network has waged a two-decade battle to prevent the construction of the Burapha Power Plant, a 540 MW gas-fired combined-cycle facility.

The struggle began in 2007 against what was then proposed as a coal-fired plant. In 2019, developers amended the fuel source to natural gas, but locals say their concerns remain unaddressed.

“What happens if our water sources become contaminated?” asked Chachoengsao Repower Network activist Ueangfah Chamket.

“Our community relies almost entirely on organic farming. We need clean air and water to survive and thrive. If our natural resources are degraded, our produce will drop below international standards [for export].”

Despite ongoing local protests, the Burapha plant is now under construction and scheduled to begin operating next year.

Who really benefits?

Burapha will become the 50th power plant serving Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), an industrial zone spanning the provinces of Chachoengsao, Chon Buri and Rayong.

Chiraphat Chamket of Fossil Free Thailand (Representative from the Burapa campaign) said numerous lives will be affected once the plant starts running. Fuelled by natural gas piped in from Rayong, the facility will generate electricity for power-hungry data centres and industrial estates in Chon Buri.

“Not only will the affected communities have to sacrifice their natural resources, but they will also face potential long-term health problems,” said Chiraphat of the plant’s impact.

She dismissed government promises of financial remedies, saying that locals were merely demanding dignity and the preservation of their traditional livelihoods.

“We don’t want compensation,” she said.

She also dismissed the government’s claim that the new plants are essential for national energy security.

“The security certainly won’t apply to the people of Chachoengsao where the plant is located,” she said, citing data collected from families living around the new plant. “Nor is it for the average electricity consumer,” she added.

Limited public participation

Civic groups recently submitted a formal petition to EPPO, accusing the agency of rushing the September 8 public hearing by giving people just one week prior notice to register. Government bodies are required to give participants at least 15 days to review documents.

EPPO, so far, has argued that it is open to written public feedback until September 15. EPPO adds that it will revise the draft PDP, based on valuable feedback, before submitting it to the energy minister, who will then forward it to the EPPO Board, the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) and the Cabinet before the end of October. The new PDP is expected to take effect in November.

“EPPO has still not disclosed details on where these new power plants will be built,” Thanyaporn said. “Actually, it should realise that people care not only about national power-generation targets – they need to know if a plant is going to be built in their backyard.”

She added that public participation in the PDP process is a basic right, given that locals will have to live with the health, environmental and financial impact over the next few decades.

Ueangfah warned that her group will fight for a voice in the PDP, knowing the damage power plants do to public health and the environment.

“The government must learn to listen to the people living on the land, not just those holding power in Bangkok,” she said.

By Thai PBS World’s General Desk