Regional concerns dilute Anutin’s expansive foreign policy goals

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is set to announce his government’s foreign policy focused strongly on multilateralism and global outreach, but substantively the policy appears to be bogged down by domestic security priorities, especially border issues with neighboring countries.

The government’s policy paper prepared for an address to Parliament on April 9-10 aims to strengthen Thailand’s global standing through a multidimensional “Beyond Thailand” approach, grounded in multilateralism, international law and universal values.

The policy also positions the country to lead ASEAN in responding to shifting global challenges when Bangkok chairs the regional grouping in 2028.

“Strengthen stability by prioritizing Thailand’s national interests while maintaining constructive relations with all major powers in a multipolar world,” says the paper, which was endorsed by the Cabinet on April 6.

Among key issues, the policy paper cites the government’s continued efforts to resolve the Thailand–Cambodia situation through peaceful means and existing bilateral mechanisms, while expediting the study of approaches to terminate the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in 2001 that aimed to settle maritime disputes with Cambodia.

The MOU to resolve the overlapping claims on continental shelves and jointly develop abundant hydrocarbon resources in the Gulf of Thailand has been one of the contentious issues between Thailand and Cambodia for decades.

The overlapping claims of continental shelves since the 1970s span approximately 26,000 square kilometers, which potentially holds abundant energy resources, including an estimated 11 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 300–500 million barrels of crude oil, having a combined estimated economic value of around US$300 billion.

There have been demands, including a resolution of the Senate’s ad hoc committee in December, to scrap the 2001 MOU on the grounds that Cambodia was claiming far more than its rights and that Thailand could lose territory, notably Koh Kut Island in Trat province.

Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkoew had said earlier that the 2001 MOU could be terminated as negotiations under its framework had made no significant progress over the past 25 years.

Wrong signal to energy security

Many observers regard the term “the study of the approach to terminate the MOU” as a tactic to buy time and reduce political pressure from right-wing nationalists who are demanding a tough stance over the border conflict with Cambodia.

Many other experts in the energy sector, however, see the move as a wrong signal amid the current energy crisis.

The ongoing war in the Middle East is of grave concern to the energy sector, as Thailand currently imports 80-90 per cent of its total oil consumption and more than 40 per cent of natural gas to generate electricity.

While domestic production within Thailand’s continental shelves is in decline, the termination of the MOU to jointly explore and develop petroleum with Cambodia was likely a counterproductive policy, according to industrial sources.

A peaceful resolution?

Anutin faces policy dilemmas when it comes to dealing with land boundary disputes that caused a series of border flare-ups last year.

The military clashes in July and December last year claimed the lives of 15 civilians and 42 soldiers and displaced more than half a million people.

Two ceasefire agreements mediated by ASEAN, the US and China failed to bring sustainable peace.

While the government has said it would rely on bilateral mechanisms to resolve the conflict peacefully, the situation on the ground is unlikely to be supportive. The military is building infrastructure and facilities in the border areas covering more than 13,000 rai (5,140 acres) that they seized and occupied after the clashes.

While insisting on maintaining the current positions after the December 27 ceasefire agreement, the Thai military has built roads to the areas as well as laid barbed wire and containers along the unilaterally claimed boundary, prompting protests from Phnom Penh.

Before the border skirmish, the two countries contested four major disputed areas at Emerald Triangle (Chong Bok), Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Toch, and Ta Kwai (Ta Kabei in Khmer) Hindu complex.

Thailand rejected Phnom Penh’s move to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice.

After the flare-up, the Cambodian authorities listed an additional 14 locations in Banteay Meanchey, Pursat, Preah Vihear and Oddar Meanchey provinces as unlawfully occupied by the Thai military.

Anutin’s government has not responded yet to a call from Phnom Penh to convene a meeting of the Joint Boundary Commission for resolving the disputes under the framework of the 2000 MOU on survey and demarcation of land boundary.

Anutin’s government has had to fine-tune the issue, as its policy paper does not mention the termination of the 2000 MOU on the land boundary as suggested in late March by a Senate ad hoc committee.

Foreign Minister Sihasak said the 2000 MOU was useful for the settlement of the boundary conflict, but his government would consider the recommendation from the Senate’s committee.

Myanmar off the radar

While highlighting the conflict with Cambodia in the foreign and security policy, Anutin’s administration has no specific policy on the situation in strife-torn Myanmar, despite the trouble it has caused Thailand through border trade disruption, spillover from military clashes, refugees and humanitarian issues.

Sources at the Foreign Ministry involved in drafting the policy said that concerns relating to Myanmar could be viewed in the context of border security.

The text says the government will “strengthen border security to ensure it is free from all forms of threats, while addressing transnational issues in cooperation with neighboring countries and regional partners”.

To implement border security, the government will “prevent, monitor and prepare measures to mitigate the impacts of threats arising both within and outside the country, particularly those related to border security, narcotics, scam networks and environmental issues”.

It will develop integrated data-sharing systems and construct border barriers to comprehensively address threats such as the smuggling of goods and drugs, illegal labor, transnational scam networks, illegal burning and illicit mining, while strengthening relations and cooperation with neighboring countries and playing a constructive role in promoting regional stability.

Former foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara, as the chief advisor to Sihasak, who is also a deputy prime minister, would help create a special plan for Myanmar, according to an official at the ministry.

Under former prime minister Srettha Thavisin, Parnpree and Sihasak had initiated a humanitarian corridor project in 2024 to relieve the severe impact of the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, with the goal of using it as a springboard for peace mediation.

The project was subsequently overshadowed by a powerful move from China to suppress scam cities along the Myanmar border, forcing the then Thai government to pour its resources into tackling illicit businesses.

Military policy

On the delicate issue of military affairs, Anutin’s government has paid no attention to initiating reforms.

The government has, however, said it would develop the national defense system and enhance the capabilities of the armed forces to ensure their readiness, appropriateness and alignment in both current and future security contexts.

As a compromise on the demand to end military conscription, Anutin’s government will implement a program initiated by the House of Representatives Military Committee to recruit 100,000 volunteer soldiers.

Thai men will be invited to serve four-year contracts with a reasonable salary and a clear performance evaluation system, it said.