Orange eclipsed: Why Thailand’s progressive movement plunged in poll

The “orange wave” that once seemed set to sweep across Thailand’s political landscape now appears to have receded amid a conservative resurgence.

Instead of achieving the landslide victory predicted by many in the February 8 election, the orange-coded People’s Party managed to secure only 118 seats with 10.4 million party-list votes – a far cry from the 151 seats and 14 million party-list votes it won as the Move Forward Party three years ago.

"It’s a huge loss for the People’s Party. Its performance was much weaker than expected,” said Chaipong Samnieng, a political science lecturer at Naresuan University.

The People’s Party had targeted roughly 20 million party-list votes for a haul of 200 seats in Parliament, Chaipong said.

However, the unratified results were so disappointing that party secretary-general Sarayut Jailak offered to take responsibility by stepping down. Meanwhile, People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut delivered a tearful apology for the poor performance to party members.

Proud history rocked

The People’s Party is the third incarnation of a reformist movement born in March 2018 with the launch of the Future Forward Party.

Founded by tycoon Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and academic Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, Future Forward pushed against military interference in politics while seeking decentralisation and an end to business monopolies.

In 2019, it pulled off a stunning electoral debut, winning 81 seats after capturing the hearts of new-generation voters.

However, its rapid rise triggered a backlash from the conservative establishment, before a legal ruling snuffed out the first Orange Wave.

In February 2020, the Constitutional Court disbanded Future Forward for taking a 191-million-baht loan from its founder and banned its executives for 10 years. Undeterred, the politicians regrouped under Move Forward, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, and won the 2023 election with 151 seats.

The courts intervened again, and on August 7, 2024, Move Forward was dissolved for campaigning to amend the lèse-majesté law.

Reborn as the People’s Party, the movement now faces its toughest challenge yet. Not only has its vote subsided, but 44 of its former MPs – many of whom are also incoming MPs such as Natthaphong – are at risk of disqualification after the National Anti-Corruption Commission ruled their push to amend the lèse-majesté law was a serious ethical violation.

Shrinking support

Asked why the Orange movement had lost momentum, political scientist Yuttaporn Issarachai said voters had punished the People’s Party for backing Anutin Charnvirakul’s bid to become prime minister after Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed from office last year.

In June last year, coalition leader Pheu Thai was plunged into crisis when Paetongtarn was accused of kowtowing to Cambodian strongman Hun Sen while criticising her own military, in a leaked phone call over the border dispute.

She was removed from office by the Constitutional Court two months later.

The opposition-leading People’s Party then agreed to back Anutin’s bid for the premiership as leader of the coalition’s second-largest partner, Bhumjaithai, allowing it to form a minority government.

With this action, the opposition leader lost its status as a principled alternative to “old politics” and became just another player in the political game, said Yuttaporn, who teaches at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.

The academic also noted that the People’s Party – under legal pressure over its lèse-majesté law stance – softened its bold structural reforms in favour of more “practical” policies, which further blurred its liberal, pro-democracy identity.

The People’s Party put forward over 200 policies while campaigning for the February 8 election, but none appeared to capture the public’s imagination.

Critics said that by veering from its message of military and monarchy reform, the party sacrificed the progressive soul that ignited the youth-led movement in 2020.

Pannika Wanich, a co-founder of Future Forward, said voters at this election may have been upset at the party’s failure to deliver on pledges after it won the 2023 poll.

“The People’s Party also underestimated the wave of nationalism sweeping the country,” she told reporters.

Yuttaporn echoed that point, saying the People’s Party bid to restrain the military had boomeranged when the Thai-Cambodia conflict erupted, sparking a surge of public support for Thai soldiers on the border.

Meanwhile its allegations of corruption levelled at other political parties appeared to backfire when several of its own candidates were implicated in money-laundering and illegal gambling websites.

Political observer Chaipong said People’s Party leader Natthaphong was also far less charismatic than his predecessors, Thanathorn and Pita.

“Other People’s Party members like Rukchanok Srinok and Rangsiman Rome outshone Natthaphong [in the public spotlight],” he said.

Chaipong added that the party had failed to connect with rural grassroots communities, preferring to campaign through its online “echo chamber”.

While acknowledging the party’s impressive performance in Bangkok, where it won all 33 constituency seats, he said it should have done more to reach out to rural voters.

“You can't rely on just trending social movements. You also need to build a strong face-to-face support base among constituents,” he said.

Meanwhile, some hardcore fans of the party had damaged its popularity by calling supporters of other parties stupid or poor, he continued.

Another thing that may have taken a toll on the People’s Party was the drop in voter turnout, from around 75% at the last election to 65% this time around.

What’s next?

People’s Party secretary Sarayut said a reshuffle of the executive board was on the cards at the party’s next general meeting, to be held in March or April.

However, the immediate task was to learn from its disappointing performance at the ballot box and prepare a fresh strategy for the next election, he added.

Orapan Jantarueng, a People’s Party candidate in Chiang Mai, observed that performing well as the opposition in Parliament was no longer enough to woo voters.

“Candidates need to maintain local networks, so people can feel the party’s presence even when the representative is not visible,” she said.