How Bhumjaithai becomes new political magnet

When Newin Chidchob, the de facto patriarch of BhumjaithaiParty, vowed last week that he will have its leader Anutin Charnvirakulinstalled as the next prime minister, he was definitely not bluffing. In fact, he was echoing one of the most talked about possible scenarios in the aftermath of the next general elections.

Bhumjaithai is certainly not the biggest political party. And though it doesnotgo around boasting about wanting to win a landslide election victorylike some parties do, it is far from being modest.

It’s currently the second biggest party in the Prayut coalition governmentand its support is crucial to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s political survival. Unlike most other political parties that havebeentorn by internal dissensions, Bhumjaithaihas been stable with its clout steadily growing.

The party prides itself on its “middle of the road” policy which is credited for its political rise. It means the party is not necessarily aligned with any particular political beliefs. In other words, it means that it’s ready to work with anyone who offers it the best option.

Bhumjaithai’spolitical stand certainly works in the context of the current Thai politics which still sees political parties with opposing views going at each other’s throat. It has successfully presented itself as an alternative to the two political extremes – one supporting the powers-that-be led by Prayut and the other at the beck and call of self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

As things stand today, PheuThai, currently the biggest opposition party, has a good prospect of dominatingthe next general elections. Paethongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter, has made a dramatic appearance in the political scene in her capacity as the “head of PheuThai family” and is touted as a potential candidate for prime minister, greatly boosting the party’s popularity in constituencies where her father is still widely admired.

On the other hand,though much weakened, the ruling Palang PracharathPartyunder the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, a key figurein 2014 military coup, seems to be doing everything it can to stay in power after the next general elections.

Though the two parties are expected to be major contenders in the next elections, neitheris expected to win enough seats to form a government on its own. And this is where Bhumjaithai’srole is most crucial.In short, the post-election government is most likely to be a coalition and playing the role of a kingmaker will be Bhumjaithai.

That explains why all of a sudden, Bhumjaithaihas become a political magnet, drawing potential defectors from a number of both government and opposition parties. In fact, Bhumjaithaihas been attractingMPsfrom other parties since it joined the Prayut coalition following the general elections in 2014which saw it win 51 seats. Now it has as many as 61 MPs under its wings.

As the next elections draw near, Bhumjaithaihas become even more attractive. Newin’sbirthday celebrations in Buriram last week drew a number of MPs from other parties who make no secret of their desire to switch camps.Even the ruling Palang PracharathParty is not spared the prospects of its MPs defecting to Bhumjaithai– not to mention the Democrat which is being mired in internal squabbles.

It’s believed that the uncertainty surrounding Prayut’s political future is a key factor prompting some of the Palang Pracharath’sMPs to contemplate abandoningship. Prayut was elected prime minister under the banner of PalangPracharathin the 2019 general elections, but it’s unclear whether the party will still want him as its candidate for the top executive post.

According the Constitutional Court’s ruling, Prayut can serve no more than two years if he is re-elected as prime minister after the next general elections. It’s a limitation that is dimming Prayut’s political future to the point that the party may not want to nominate him as a candidate for prime minister – or that he may not be its only candidate like he was back in 2019.

High-ranking executives of Bhumjaithaitold Thai PBS World that the party intends to make a splash in the upcoming elections with its leader AnutinCharnvirakulonce again nominated as its prime minister candidate. The soft-spoken businessman-turned-politician is currently deputy prime minister and public health minister.Normally, reserved and humble, Anutin, however, has been increasingly vocal in staking himclaim to the country’s top executive job.

The Bhumjaithaiexecutives admitted that though Bhumjaithaimay not emerge the biggest winner in the next elections, it will certainly play a crucial role in shaping the post-election government. “We can say for sure that whoever wins the elections will need Bhumjaithaito form a government,” said one of the executives.

Such confidence grows out of the reality on the ground.Bhumjaithaihas been chipping away at political strongholds of all major parties in many constituencies. Even the Democrat Party, currently itscoalition partner,is feeling threatened bythe prospects of losing many of its seats inits political bastion inthe south to Bhumjaithaiin the next elections. Bhumjaithaihas also been successfully making inroads into PheuThai’s strongholds in the north and northeast.

It’s no coincidence that Newin, apolitical veteranwith controversial past,has come out to make a headline-making claim that Bhumjaithai aims to win as many as 120 seats in the next elections – enough to make Anutinthe next prime minister. Such bold claim is seen as another attempt to boost the party’s political stock price.

Though he is not holding any formal position in Bhumjaithai, Newinis known to wield great influence in the party. With his political acumen and connection, Newin’srole as kingmaker will be indispensable, especially for Anutin.

By Thepchai Yong