Thailand maps out a practicable strategy toward Myanmar

Thailand is recalibrating its strategy toward conflict-ridden Myanmar, with a more practicable approach, driven largely by its own security and economic interests.

The strategy tweak has been necessitated by the flawed election in the neighboring country that has only consolidated the military elite’s grip on power, bringing the risk of further escalation of violence.

In a bid to re-engage the military-ruled neighbor and seek more cooperation, caretaker Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow met with his Myanmar counterpart Than Swe on February 18 in the resort island of Phuket to assess the situation after the three-phase election.

Pro-junta party dominates

The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party managed to secure a total of 739 out of the 1,025 seats contested for the local and national legislative bodies in the elections held in December and January.

The party secured 232 of 263 seats in the lower house and 109 of 157 in the upper house.

When combined with the constitutionally guaranteed 25 per cent military quota—equivalent to 166 seats across both chambers—the military bloc now controls a total of 538 seats, comfortably exceeding the 294-seat threshold required by law to form a government.

Myanmar’s Election Commission was able to hold elections only in 263 out of 330 townships across the country due to armed conflict with dissidents since the military coup in February 2021.

Many observers have dubbed the elections organised by the junta as a sham, warning that it could bring more trouble and violence to the country rather than peace and reconciliation.

Speaking at a recent seminar in Bangkok, Khin Ohmar, a human rights defender, stated that following the “sham” election, as many as 400 people who criticized the poll were arrested.

Meanwhile, the military government has been closely monitoring public movements and employing an unprecedented level of violence to suppress dissent, she said.

The political and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, which has persisted for five years, has displaced more than 3.5 million people internally, as the military has bombed communities, burned villages and carried out ground attacks.

Over the past two years alone, communities have been bombed some 6,000 times, while international humanitarian assistance has been unable to reach those in need, according to Khin Ohmar.

Local media reported that the latest air strike took place in the second week of February in Sagaing Region, a major stronghold of the parallel National Unity Government (NUG). The Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) managed to defeat units of NUG’s armed wing, the People’s Defense Forces.

Building a bridge

Junta minister Than Swe told Sihasak that the election had been held smoothly and the new government could be formed before the traditional new year of Songkran.

The new government in Naypyidaw seeks to return Myanmar to stability and to be more open to dialogue, consultation and reconciliation with opposition groups—whether ethnic organizations or pro-democracy movements, according to Sihasak.

Thailand welcomes this development, as it believes that peace in Myanmar must come through dialogue and reconciliation, he said.

Sihasak stated that Thailand would serve as a bridge to bring Myanmar back into the ASEAN family under a policy of gradual engagement, but on the condition that Myanmar took positive steps to address ASEAN’s concerns under the Five-Point Consensus, adopted in April 2021.

Thailand would play a leading role, while the Myanmar side must help respond to the concerns of ASEAN and the international community through constructive actions such as initiating dialogue, allowing space for humanitarian assistance, reducing violence and avoiding attacks on civilians, he said.

“Over the past five years, there has been no progress on the Five-Point Consensus. Thailand would like to see movement on this front. Therefore, Thailand’s policy is one of gradual engagement, and we call on Myanmar to respond. In our discussions, the Myanmar side has shown a positive attitude on this matter,” Sihasak said.

The Thai foreign minister told reporters after the meeting with Than Swe that his government had sought sustainable peace in Myanmar, as it was crucial for Thailand’s own security and also beneficial for economic cooperation between the two countries.

“Thailand is positioning itself to play a leading role as a bridge also for reconciliation dialogue, which will help promote peace in Myanmar, enhance stability along the border, and further develop economic relations,” he said.

“We do not seek to be the leader, but rather to play a leading role, as a frontline state sharing a border with Myanmar. What Thailand does will benefit the region and the broader common good,” Sihasak said.

Multidimensional problems

Sihasak, who is tipped to continue as foreign minister in the next Cabinet led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, said that as an immediate neighbor sharing a more than 2,400-kilometer border with Myanmar, Thailand faced a lot of cross-border challenges and hence cooperation from the junta-backed government was badly needed to tackle them.

“We will strengthen cooperation in suppressing various forms of crime, particularly online scammers, as well as in combating drug production, which we know has been increasing. This also includes addressing river pollution,” he said.

They have proposed establishing a joint working group to set standards and to restore cross-border trade through the main channels particularly at Mae Sot on the Thai side and Myawaddy on the Myanmar side, where repairs to Asian Highway No. 1 have begun.

“If they are able to engage more effectively with ethnic groups, cross-border trade can be jointly reopened,” Sihasak said.

Myanmar is a country with strong economic potential, and Thai private companies are interested in investing there, but Thai businesses face certain constraints, he said.

Some of these may now be eased for example, allowing direct trade using the kyat and the baht.

Profits earned by Thai companies currently have to be exchanged at the official rate, and there are questions about whether the general market rate can be applied instead, as the official rate does not reflect the true value.

The Central Bank of Myanmar officially values the Myanmar Kyat (MMK) at around 2,100 to the US dollar, while the market rate is in the range of 3,500–5,000 MMK to the dollar.

In the energy sector, PTT is interested in expanding energy development, and the Myanmar side has indicated its readiness to support this, he added.

Since taking office in September last year, Sihasak has played a crucial role in harmonizing relevant agencies, including the National Security Council (NSC) and the Royal Thai Armed Forces, to draft a strategic plan for Anutin’s new administration to use as a handbook to engage with Myanmar, according to a source close to the matter.

The ongoing situation in Myanmar would pose many problems to Thailand including border security, formal relations with the junta-backed government, intervention from global and regional powerhouses, transborder crimes notably scammers and cross-border pollution.

“We know all the problems looming in our country, but the problem is we don’t have a single command to handle them,” said an NSC source.