Deadlocked

It is one audio clip to rule them all. The leaked phone conversation between Hun Sen and Paetongtarn Shinawatra has done what Thai conservatives have been unable to do _ crippling Thailand’s biggest political clan and probably giving the most popular political party, now in the opposition, an unprecedented challenge.

The Hun Sen’s clip has not just doomed Paetongtarn. Every Shinawatra is also all but finished, because what was leaked makes it virtually untenable for any family member to lead the Thai government. This is despite the semblance of defiance that Pheu Thai is trying to project after the uproar and the pullout of the Bhumjaithai Party.

There is no way to improve the slim majority in the House of Representatives. The current numbers are precarious for any “normal” government without controversial agendas like Digital Wallet or the Entertainment Complex or without scores of reluctant or untrustworthy allies like United Thai Nation and Democrat.

The government coalition currently has fewer than 30 MPs more than the opposition. Paetongtarn cannot bring Palang Pracharath in for obvious reasons, and even if she and her father Thaksin decided to go for the unthinkable scenario of having the People’s Party in the government, the rival camp would certainly reject such an offer.

The surge of nationalism as well as latest comments by some People’s Party leaders, with Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn probably the most vocal, must have slammed the door shut for the opposition group. It would rather choose to let Pheu Thai die and bide its own time in the process.

Pheu Thai exists because of the Shinawatras only. They made the party win elections by giving its fan base hope for big representation in the executive branch. And on the other hand, the Shinawatras keep supporting or financing the party because they hope to acquire executive prestige or anything else in return.

That is a nice quid pro quo. But when hopes of the fan base and the Shinawatras dwindle at the same time, Pheu Thai will be in big trouble. Paetongtarn’s crisis followed that of her father. Add Yingluck Shinawatra’s problems and the clan is in a very critical condition.

It is more problematic than when Thaksin Shinawatra was seemingly pulling the strings from exile overseas, because although he was absent then, his fan base scarcely wavered, and his immediate family members or proxies were somewhat a source of inspiration.

But the situation has changed. It turned bad when Pheu Thai joined hands with the conservatives after the last general election and it got worse with the Medical Council saga just days ago.

And now, this.

The audio clip did not just do great damage on the Shinawatras. It also further reduces the already-tiny chance of Pheu Thai and the People’s Party getting reunited. For all its extreme anti-establishment views, the Thai-Cambodian border conflict may go beyond usual “liberal” mindsets.

Backing Pheu Thai this time is dangerous. What Paetongtarn said to Hun Sen could be dismissed as Thai-like politeness or modesty, but it has been politicised explosively with no end yet in sight for potential damage.

Unless it is extremely or naively bold, the People’s Party, facing legal problems because of controversial national security stances itself, is better off staying away. And this does not take into account issues of administrative control or populist agendas just yet.

It looks like a deadlock for Pheu Thai. The party used to have some sort of the upper hand because of the post-election possibility that it would combine with the People’s Party to upend Thailand’s political culture. That advantage has shrunk considerably.

As for Bhumjaithai, it has left the government coalition amid loud cheers. It has become a force to be reckoned now and is likely to grow even bigger in the next election, particularly when conservative peers like United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath remain divided and are still all over the place.

If Pheu Thai is to lose a significant number of parliamentary seats to the People’s Party in the next election, the same can be said about Bhumjaithai and its conservative friends.

But as of now, everything is deadlocked. Pheu Thai has basically three choices. It may try to navigate the extremely-treacherous waters, or choose the unlikely option of having Paetongtarn resign, allowing a reset without putting Thailand through another snap election.

Dissolving Parliament is the third option, the most anticipated one, which, however, is looking somewhat less likely after the show of defiance on Thursday.

Still, that first choice (of trying to scrape through) has already seen warning signs. The Democrats needed to call for a vote to decide whether to continue staying in the coalition, and while the outcome was “stay”, it was nowhere near unanimous. Similar ambivalence is materialising at other coalition partners as well.

It’s a very risky path. Standing between success and failure are only 10 rebellious MPs or so. Worse news is they can be anyone, or some in the Pheu Thai Party even.