Trump might see a signing ceremony but not a lasting peace

US President Donald Trump is expected to preside over the signing of a ceasefire pact between Thailand and Cambodia when he attends the ASEAN Summit later this month, but beyond the optics of a ceremony a lasting peace between the two Southeast Asian neighbors remains elusive.

“How could I comment on that? It’s a security matter,” Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul responded when asked about Trump’s plan to preside over the event.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan said earlier that there had been a proposal for the United States and Malaysia to act as facilitators in overseeing a ceasefire agreement that will be called the Kuala Lumpur Declaration or the Kuala Lumpur Accord.

“Trump is looking forward to the signing of the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire agreement,” Hasan told local media.

The idea was floated during four-party talks in Kuala Lumpur on October 12, but Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, who attended the meeting, did not talk about the so-called Kuala Lumpur Accord.

Sihasak simply told reporters that the meeting had gone well and both sides would consult their respective governments before making further moves.

A diplomatic source said that Malaysia, which is currently chairing ASEAN, wanted to use the ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia as an incentive to lure Trump to join the ASEAN Summit and related meetings due to be held in Kuala Lumpur from October 26-28.

Anutin talks tough

The latest communication from Washington says that Trump might be interested in attending the ASEAN Summit if he can take credit for the progress of the ceasefire pact.

Prime Minister Anutin had said last week that while he regarded Trump’s interest as a gesture in good faith, a truce would never happen unless Cambodia complied with Thailand’s conditions, as it was Thailand that had been invaded.

Anutin said that for any negotiations to begin, Cambodia must meet four basic conditions: withdraw its troops from the border area; remove heavy weapons and clear landmines; relocate Cambodian civilians who had encroached into Thai territory; and allow Thailand to verify that the area was indeed safe.

Sihasak is scheduled to meet with his Cambodian counterpart on October 17. Anutin has instructed him to make Thailand’s four conditions as the framework for negotiations, and to maintain the position throughout the dialogue process.

A fragile ceasefire

Faced with Trump’s coercive tariff threat, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to cease fire after the border flare-up on July 28. A 13-point pact was drawn up following a meeting of the General Border Committee (GBC) on August 7.

The five-day border clashes in July, driven by anachronical boundary disputes and domestic political issues, claimed many civilian and military lives, displaced around 300,000 people on both sides and inflicted trade losses in billions of baht.

The peace plan barred the conflicting parties from engaging in any provocation or troop increase, mandated an ASEAN-led verification, and created mechanisms for humanitarian protection, crisis communication and follow-up coordination.

A special session of the GBC convened in Koh Kong, Cambodia, on September 10 was expected to achieve constructive outcomes aimed at reducing tensions, but the Thai military establishment and right-wing nationalists signaled their dissatisfaction with the outcome.

They insisted that Cambodia must first relocate heavy weapons, withdraw troops and remove Cambodian nationals from disputed border areas.

Violence flared up again on September 17 when Cambodian civilians clashed with Thai anti-riot police in a disputed area adjacent to Thailand’s Ban Nong Ya Kaeo and Cambodia’s Prey Chan, leaving at least 29 people injured.

Thai authorities said their forces had responded to some 200 Cambodian protesters demonstrating against barricades and barbed wire installations along the border.

The Thai military released maps and graphics to assert the clashes had occurred on Thai territory, while Cambodia’s Defense Ministry rejected the claim, stating that the boundary line was not official.

Same issues, new conditions

Border tensions have been notably high in the disputed areas of Ban Nong Chan and Nong Ya Kaeo over the past weeks after Thai authorities issued an ultimatum to Cambodia to remove civilians from the claimed Thai territory, where Cambodians have lived for four decades.

After the Cambodians refused to comply, the Thai authorities decided to deploy noise power. An influencer known widely as Kan Chompalang disturbed the Cambodians in the area with ghostly wails and imitating the howling of dogs and loud airplane engines.

Cambodian authorities condemned what they described as a “grave violation” of sovereignty after Thai forces deployed hundreds of troops and heavy machinery in border areas, while launching psychological warfare targeting border villagers.

The Cambodian authorities have filed a human rights violation complaint with the Interim Observer Team and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Thai military also conducted mine clearance operations in the areas despite objections from the Cambodian side due to an unclear boundary line.

Meanwhile the 2nd Army Region, which oversees the Northern region, announced on October 14 the indefinite postponement of a meeting of the Regional Border Committee with their Cambodian counterparts from Military Region 4, accusing them of failure to submit a concrete action plan for the removal of heavy weapons and troops adjustment.

While the Thai military claimed that the arrangement was agreed to during a meeting of the GBC on September 10 in Koh Kong, the joint statement issued after the meeting made clear that the secretariat of GBC and RBC would discuss a detailed, practical and step-by-step action plan.

This action plan would be implemented under the observation and verification of the yet-to-be established ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), it said.

Both sides agreed in principle on the terms of reference for the establishment of the AOT, but a diplomatic source said the process would be delayed as the Thai military did not want the AOT to verify its actions on the ground.

To delay the setting up of the AOT, the Thai military would aggregate and mix up several issues concerning border security, such as scam centers, civilian encroachment and landmine clearance, the source said.

These actions were also linked to the decision on reopening border checkpoints to allow trade and movement of people, according to Surasan Kongsiri, spokesman for the Defense Ministry.

Thailand has made it clear that any negotiations would proceed only after Cambodia accepts and implements the conditions to a satisfactory degree, he said.