Leaked, slammed, cornered: Will Paetongtarn's govt survive leaked phone call scandal?

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is defying growing calls to quit after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former premier Hun Sen sparked suspicions that she is not serving Thailand’s interests.

Analysts, however, say Paetongtarn will find it tough to remain in office as pressure mounts over the scandal.

On Thursday (June 19), Paetongtarn expressed regret over the incident, but did not address calls for her resignation. In a press conference attended by chiefs of the armed forces, the PM called for Thai unity while saying it was “unacceptable” for Hun Sen to make their conversation public.

Meanwhile, protesters gathered outside Government House on Thursday to demand that she take responsibility by resigning immediately.

The incident has also triggered at least four legal petitions, accusing her of breaching ethical standards for officeholders or criminal breaches of national security.

Observers say senators could also seek a Constitutional Court ruling on whether the PM should be removed for violating the charter’s ethical requirements.

Imminent priority

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, said Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party is desperate to remain in power to pass landmark legislation – including the legalisation of casinos.

He expects the ruling party to persuade its remaining coalition partners to stay in government by offering them key ministerial posts.

Eight Cabinet seats – including the highly-coveted interior minister’s post – were left vacant when the coalition’s second-largest party Bhumjaithai withdrew from the coalition on Wednesday (June 18).

The analyst noted that the Pheu Thai-led coalition still maintains a slim majority in the 500-member House of Representatives, ensuring its short-term survival.

“Without Bhumjaithai, the government now has 260 MP seats. As long as no more parties pull out, the coalition could hold on. There are no critical laws to pass right now, so it should manage to get by for now,” Olarn said.

If needed, Pheu Thai could also seek votes of support from dissident MPs in the opposition camp, he added.

Bhumjaithai announced its decision to quit the ruling coalition on Wednesday night, protesting that details in the leaked call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen had undermined Thailand’s territorial sovereignty and national interests. It also called on the prime minister to “show responsibility” for compromising the honour of the nation, its people and its military.

The party had earlier rejected Pheu Thai's demand for its interior minister's seat, saying it would rather join the opposition than give it up. However, observers say that now, Bhumjaithai has cleverly taken advantage of the crisis to pull out. No other coalition partners apart from Bhumjaithai have decided to pull out.

‘Naïve and pathetic’

The clip, released by Hun Sen on his social media account, records Paetongtarn asking for his favour to help ease border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia that have flared in recent weeks.

Critics denounced the soft tone she used with the Cambodian prime minister’s father, saying she was “naïve and pathetic” to believe that she could negotiate with the seasoned strongman.

Hun Sen ruled the country with an iron fist for over two decades before handing power to his son last year and installing himself as Senate president.

Paetongtarn admitted that she had called Hun Sen on her mobile phone last Sunday (June 15). Both spoke through a Cambodian interpreter, Hun Sen’s trusted aide.

During the conversation, the Thai leader called Hun Sen “uncle” in English. She also urged him to ignore the words and actions taken by Thailand’s Second Army Region commander, Lt-General Boonsin Padklang, who has taken a tough stance in the latest border conflict with Cambodia.

Paetongtarn described the general as someone from “the opposite side” – believed to be a reference to the Thai military. She claimed he was simply trying to “look cool” by making remarks that were not beneficial to the country.

The Thai leader was also heard promising Hun Sen that “if he wants something, he can say it and we will arrange it for him”.

The ruling families of both countries – Thailand’s Shinawatras and Cambodia’s Hun family – have enjoyed strong ties over the past three decades.

An ethical issue?

If PM Paetongtarn believed her remarks to Hun Sen were ethically compromised, she had a duty to resign, Olarn said.

She could be replaced by one of the six remaining PM candidates: Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul, Pheu Thai’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, General Prawit Wongsuwan from Palang Pracharath, General Prayut Chan-o-cha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga from United Thai Nation, and Jurin Laksanawisit from the Democrat Party.

However, if Paetongtarn refuses to resign and the remaining coalition partners stick with Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai would be unable to form a new government.

Some analysts reckon Pheu Thai could afford to let Paetongtarn step down – but only if it can muster enough House votes for its only other prime ministerial candidate, former justice minister Chaikasem.

To secure the premiership, a candidate must win majority support in the Lower House.

However, this option also carries risk. If the majority of MPs vote for a candidate from a rival party, such as Bhumjaithai or the People’s Party, Pheu Thai would be left in opposition.

A difficult choice

Olarn points out that an alternative option for Paetongtarn is to dissolve the House and call a snap election within 60 days.

Conservatives have derided this possibility, arguing that the controversy is Paetongtarn’s problem and has nothing to do with elected lawmakers.

A snap election would also leave conservative parties, especially Bhumjaithai, with only a slim chance of defeating the progressive People’s Party, whose predecessor won the popular vote in the 2023 national election.

Bhumjaithai is regarded as a key representative of conservatives thanks to its self-declared commitment to protecting the country’s traditional values and institutions.

Some analysts say House dissolution is likely to be a last resort for Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai, since the party onetime dominance in elections is now threatened by the People’s Party.

The main opposition party’s predecessor, Move Forward, topped the vote in 2023 but failed to form a government after factions in Parliament blocked its leader Pita Limjaroenrat from becoming prime minister.

However, if a snap election failed to deliver a House majority for the People’s Party, speculation would rise over whether it might form a new coalition government with Pheu Thai after the polls, Olarn said.

Pheu Thai was accused of betrayal in 2023 when it abandoned a Move Forward-led alliance to form a coalition government with conservative parties from General Prayut’s government.

Olarn also detects a faint possibility of a military coup triggered by Paetongtarn’s chat with Hun Sen. However, the current political situation is insufficient to justify a power seizure, he added.

Calls for military intervention in politics grew as critics started accusing PM Paetongtarn of selling out the country for personal gain.