Orange goes for broke

Trying to plant doubts about the election, which the People’s Party lost rather humiliatingly almost two weeks ago, may be a smart tactic, but it has to be under other circumstances, not the current national atmosphere.

Its “Recount!” campaign has subsided in intensity, but a newer crusade is replacing it and looks even a bigger jaw-dropper. The barcode/QR code controversy is allowing the whole Orange apparatus (not just the party but also overzealous supporters among the fandom, some in the academia and some in the media) to virtually demand, in different degrees of seriousness, a new voting.

The whole development is understandable, but that doesn’t mean it is not extremely risky. It’s like a make-or-break poker game where one has nothing to lose and an audacious gamble has to be called upon or the player will be out for good.

On the one hand, the Orange is doing something sensible, albeit at a high risk. But on the other hand, the Thai political divide has gone past the point where opinions can be swayed through recounts or even a new overall election. Voters see the People’s Party either as a victim or villain. There is nothing in between.

Take away charges of poll irregularities, the People’s Party has to be afraid. Very afraid.

Why? Because while Bhumjaithai’s win is not unexpected, what is truly a big surprise is the manner of the Orange loss, which came resoundingly despite whispered rumours, tumultuous allegations and prevalent rhetoric against Anutin Charnvirakul’s party.

Any incumbent party enduring such overwhelming attacks coming from all sides does not win a landslide, period. To add to the negative pre-election environment against Bhumjaithai, the southern floods led to massive anti-government outcries, and, as if that was not enough, huge accidents occurred and were heavily politicised against the Anutin government.

And don’t forget the Democrat resurgence, too.

Some online comments may shed some light on how certain voters were thinking. What they said was interesting. They agreed that Bhumjaithai was nowhere near perfect. They admitted they had never voted for the party. They confessed that they actually were concerned about this “rural” camp having a “not so nice” reputation.

But they said that as much as Bhumjaithai worried them, the People’s Party worried them more. Some of them even said that although they preferred the Democrats, they decided to give Bhumjaithai unprecedented support to make a more “unified” resistance against the Orange.

Did this kind of thinking contribute to the election results? It’s up to the Orange party to find out. Analysing this question is of utmost importance especially if the People’s Party wants to be here to stay. If the answer is “No”, the party will have to come up with good explanations for substantial decrease in popular votes and Bhumjaithai’s huge victory in the face of a large-scale “anti-grey” campaign and flood response criticism.

People are afraid of things they don’t really know. But the People’s Party has had a few years to ease Thais into it. The party can lose elections, but it should have won more approval than in 2023, not significantly less.

The outcome (again, let’s take away charges of irregularities and assume the election was a true reflection of what Thais wanted) showed that more people were suspicious of the Orange instead of the other way around. There might be other reasons for the Bhumjaithai landslide but the People’s Party can ignore the “fear factor” at their own peril.

Don’t underestimate the hands-crossed-behind-the-back incident involving the national anthem and People’s Party’s leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. On the one hand, there is no law preventing him from doing so. But on the other hand, there is no law preventing voters from looking at that with great anxiety.

“If you can’t do the simple thing of standing straight up during the national anthem (with arms on the sides of the body), how can I wholeheartedly accept you as my leader?” one woman said on a viral clip. She was apparently not a political plant set out to discredit him. It looked like an innocent comment that anti-Orange media came across and played up after the election.

With everything else adding up the 112 campaign, the support for anti-establishment extremists, anti-military rhetoric, controversial immigration stands that were perceived as being expressed at the wrong time the past few years have apparently increased, not decreased, voters’ worries.

There is a rampant mockery of the “anti-grey” campaign of the People’s Party as well. Arrests of election candidates for alleged connections with illegal businesses virtually nullified the People’s Party’s important ammunition during the election campaign. To make matters worse, a well-known Orange fan publicly described those supporting its rivals as “poor, old and stupid.”

Whether the election was suspicious is up to each person’s opinions on what has been shown in front of them by the accused and accusers. But just when the “Recount!” campaign and doubts about the barcode were gathering momentum, something else happened.

Tisana Choonhavan, a former Orange MP who was not selected as an election candidate this time, virtually set fire to the party with claims that drew much attention away from suspicious polling incidents and controversial “codes” on the ballots.

Her claims prompted conservative outcries about alleged use of IO (Information Operations) to spread and fabricate Orange popularity. It also drew attention to the formerly-ignored People’s Party’s requirement that ordinary people applying for party membership must yield their Laser ID (the sacred code at the back of your ID card that, when combined with your number at the front, allows greater access to your private information and might benefit scammers who are very digitally smart. Due to a conservative uproar, the People’s Party has two days ago scrapped its Laser ID policy).

And just earlier this week, a People’s Party election candidate was put in jail for rape, adding to the earlier cases of Orange electoral runners arrested for suspected involvement in illegal businesses. It was one scandal after another since Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the Orange patriarch, arrived at the political landscape years ago.

The People’s Party apparently decided to go all in (trying to devalue a process fundamental to democracy) even before this week’s jail verdict. The ruling only makes the Hail Mary look more necessary.

If there is a new election, absolutely fine. If there is not going to be a new general election, at least some doubts will remain about February 8. The IO and Laser ID controversies are big prices to pay, of course, but the party has little to lose anyway.

Very risky? Yes, but any analyst must weigh that against Anutin walking around as a landslide hero who even outdid the 2023 Move Forward.

If they succeed it will be the most dramatic touchdown. If they fail it will strengthen rivals’ belief that they are clutching at straws.