Will Sunday’s municipal polls signal seismic shift in Thai politics

Thailand’s political battleground shifts to the municipality chiefs and council elections on Sunday (May 11), with the ruling Pheu Thai Party facing off against the opposition People’s Party as powerful local dynasties take sides behind the scenes.

Experts say the two main parties are locked in a fierce battle on the campaign trail, eager to test their popularity among local voters as they position themselves for a general election expected in two years.

The People’s Party is fielding candidates for municipality posts in larger, more populous provinces like Khon Kaen, Chonburi and Chiang Mai, noted analyst Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean of Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.

Its rivals, including Pheu Thai, have opted for a more clandestine strategy, choosing to support top independent candidates rather than fielding their own, he added. In some cases, candidates contesting for the same seat are both backed by the same party.

The People’s Party has joined the contest openly in order to emphasise its policy of decentralising power to local administrations, Olarn said. Other major parties, however, are more concerned with tightening ties with local allies, he added.

“These parties need to rely on the support base of local political dynasties. If candidates from these clans go on to win municipal elections, then they can secure significant votes for those parties,” Olarn said.

While local political dynasties often contest directly for provincial seats, they tend to back allies or proxies in municipal polls, observers said.

A tough task

Olarn said the results of these local elections will offer big clues to the outcome of the next general election due in 2027. The People’s Party is gearing up for the national poll by fighting to expand its voter base through participation in local elections at the provincial, tambon (sub-district) and municipality levels.

However, it faces an uphill battle despite contesting in 101 municipalities across 39 provinces, said Olarn. He believes the main opposition party has overlooked a crucial reality – that local politics are based on mutual trust and long-term relationships.

“The People’s Party’s weak point is that they wait until the last moment to announce their candidates and usually pick someone unknown to the voters.”

He added that campaigning by well-known faces linked to the party may help to sway some voters, but not enough to secure victory.

“That’s always been a planning mistake with the People’s Party,” he said.

The party’s campaign for these elections has featured prominent politicians like Pita Limjaroenrat, former Move Forward leader and PM-hopeful, and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, founder and leader of the now-defunct Future Forward Party. Both led previous incarnations of the People’s Party.

The party’s municipal election strategy is to focus on cities and towns with large middle-class populations that are not under the influence of local political dynasties, Olarn said.

“This strategy may lead to wins, but they [People’s Party candidates] are unlikely to secure big victories,” the academic added.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is also unlikely to win a significant number of municipal seats, given its current image problem among voters, Olarn said. Its perceived poor performance since coming to power in 2023 will also dampen the ruling party’s prospects, he said.

Pheu Thai and the People’s Party are battling for several municipal mayoral posts in larger provinces like Chiang Mai and Khon Kaen.

Nationwide polls

Municipal elections are taking place in 76 provinces, with the exception of Bangkok. The capital has districts rather than municipalities and is run by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA).

Sunday’s elections will take place across 2,469 municipalities to fill seats that became vacant on March 27, when the previous holders’ four-year term expired.

Both mayors and councillors will be elected in a total of 2,121 municipalities, while 348 municipalities will only elect councillors, having held early mayoral elections due to the resignation or death of incumbents.

The last nationwide municipal elections were held on March 28, 2021.

What is a municipality?

Municipalities oversee smaller jurisdictions and work more closely with residents than provincial administrative organisations (PAOs). A municipality’s responsibilities can include road construction and repair, garbage collection and providing basic education.

Thailand has 2,474 municipalities divided into 2,218 tambons, 221 towns and 35 cities.

A tambon administrative organisation (TAO) is upgraded to a tambon municipality when its population passes 7,000 and its annual revenue exceeds 20 million baht.

A municipality rises to a town when its population grows to over 10,000, or it has a provincial hall.

A town can be upgraded to a city municipality when the population exceeds 50,000. Municipality upgrades come from the Interior Ministry.

Salaries and revenue

Each municipality is overseen by a mayor, who is elected along with members of the municipal council. The council serves as the local administration’s legislative body tasked with scrutinising executives. Both mayors and council members serve a four-year term.

The number of council members is based on the size of the municipality – 12 for a tambon, 18 for a town and 24 for a city municipality.

Mayors usually receive a monthly salary of between 14,280 and 75,530 baht based on the municipality’s annual revenue. This can range in size from below 1 million baht for small municipalities to over 300 million in large cities.

A similar salary structure applies to councillors, with earnings ranging from 3,520 baht per month for those serving the poorest municipalities to 19,440 baht in the wealthiest ones.

Municipalities have three main sources of revenue, namely state subsidies and a share of tax revenue from the government; locally collected taxes, duties, fees and fines; and income from municipal enterprises like pawnshops.

According to 2023 data from the Department of Local Administration, state subsidies and allocated tax revenue account for 89% of the revenue earned by an average municipality, while only 11% is collected locally. This underlines municipalities’ heavy reliance on the central government.