Who’s won _ Democracy or its biggest enemy?

November 6, 2024:A correct, unequivocal and reasonable answer to that question will get you a political science doctoral degree anywhere on earth.

Some will say democracy won. When about 140 million Americans (give or take) have excercised their rights to choose a president under a political model lauded by much of the world, what else can you say is the victor?

Yet again, many of the voters and the current White House will say democracy has been defeated by its greatest threat. A criminal convict-cum-demagogue has simply lied his way to the presidency, they virtually are saying.

But if the “Democracy has been hijacked” camp is right, the model must be seriously wrong requiring a big revamp then. By the same token, if the “People have spoken” half is right, what filthy idea has been injected into American public and the rest of the world during the past four years? Was what democracy told us over the years a truth or a lie (assuming what was speaking to us was democracy, not something else)?

What are your thoughts?

What if there was no MoU 44?

November 5, 2024: Overlapping claims lead to wars. This fact started on the Day One of humanity. Some of the latest examples are Gaza and parts of Ukraine, and the South China Sea will remain one of the world’s hottest spots forever.

Religiously or politically, innocent people will suffer when conflicting claimants clash. Cue energy resources and/or tourism and the problem is multiplied by a hundred.

This is why they came up with the MoU (Memorandum of Understanding), a virtual “agree to disagree in the meantime” formula designed to guard against bloodshed and prevent a disputed area from becoming a totally-useless no man’s land.

The Paetongtarn government should have been asked to do constructive things, not annoy the neighbor just for the sake of national pride. Scrapping MoU 44 is not much more than a nationalistic move, and a risky one as well whether a roller-coaster bilateral relationship is taken into account or not.

The Thai conservatives have forgotten one thing. They have their Cambodian counterparts, too, and both sides are saying the exact same thing: The Kut island is ours.

If they were still alive, the dinosaurs which lived there before anyone would be laughing their heads off.

Bank of Thailand controversy can boggle the mind

November 4, 2024:Both advocates and opponents of total “independence” of the central bank from politics can always find a scenario supporting their causes.

But, strange as it seems, they share the biggest argument: What if the central bank is totally inefficient or absolutely corrupt or both?

In other words, a “totally-independent” central bank can be totally inefficient or absolutely corrupt if run by bad people, and the same can happen to a central bank interfered by politicians who take turn gaining state power.

The current controversyrevolving around the imminent appointment of a new Bank of Thailand chair has to do with the chicken-and-egg puzzle. Politicians are saying “Look, what’s the point of democracy if the government can’t implement budgetary or monetary policies election winners had promised the people?”. The other side is saying “What will happen to national wealth if today’s election winners implement their monetary plans at will only to lose in the next election to be won by someone who is totally opposed to the plans?”

What are your thoughts?

Paetongtarn threatens to pull away in popularity race

November 3, 2024:There is no way to get rid of political biases in opinion polls, but when different pollsters start spotting the same significant change, it’s worth taking note.

Dusit Poll has somehow detected an unlikely development found earlier by NIDA pollsters. Both surveys one arguable and the other quite obvious have Paetongtarn Shinawatra ahead of any prime ministerial candidate in terms of popularity. Pheu Thai suffered a heavy image setback when it decided to join hands with the conservatives after last year’s general election, so Paetongtarn exceeding expectations in the latest popularity checks is a considerable surprise.

Dusit pollsters surveyed more than 2,130 Thais during the last week of last month. It was not a direct popularity contest between Paetongtarn and opposition leader Natthaphong Ruangpanyawut of the People’s Party, but nearly 53% think she is the most outstanding politician on the government side, while he receives 37.8% support as the most outstanding opposition figure.

Natthaphong’s closest popularity rival in the opposition bloc is someone at the same party, Sirikanya Tansakun, who breaths down his neck with more than 34%. Paetongtarn’s closest government rival is Anutin Charnvirakul who receives only 26.4%.

Weeks ago, NIDA found a similar trend. Paetongtarn, brand-new prime minister at the time, shot to the first place in its popularity survey covering 2,000 people, coinciding with the “first-phase” Digital Wallet launch. She received more than 31% support, comfortably leaving Natthaphong, a new face, behind.

In that survey, Natthaphong came third with almost 23% backing. Very interesting in the NIDA survey was what was between the man and the woman. Up to 23.50 % of the people surveyed said there was no suitable leader for Thailand at the moment.

A lot of academic language accompanies Dusit pollsters’ presentation of their latest findings, but to sum it up in layman’s terms: Paetongtarn must have done something right during the big flooding and the opposition had better start delivering a good performance beyond the parliamentary floor.

One more straw could land on badly-strained camel’s back

November 2, 2024:Don’t let news from America occupy all the attention this week, because what happens at the Thai Central Bank can be very impactful politically, too.

Both events the US presidential election and the Bank of Thailand’s appointment of a new chair can easily become a slow-motion car crash. Or the opposite, quick-paced turmoil to be specific, can happen.

A Pheu Thai loyalist and proven critic of the central bank governor is joining a couple other candidates to compete for chair of the Bank of Thailand, and the conclusion could come around the same time as the election of the new American president. Kittiratt Na-Ranong and Pheu Thai can deny a conspiracy but a big army of critics are warning against political interference in the Bank of Thailand, some with thinly-veiled threats of a political uprising.

Pheu Thai has been pushing the BOT. Digital Wallet, interest rate cuts and frequent prime ministerial criticism. You name it. But in pushing the BOT, Pheu Thai is also pushing the conservatives, who are their reluctant allies and thus have had to grit their teeth and bear the appointments of Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, start of the Digital Wallet Programme, reversal of the cannabis policy and vocal support for constitutional amendment.

Kittiratt’s possible appointment in a normal political circumstance would be already tumultuous, let alone in this highly-unusual atmosphere. Don’t rule out vociferous street protests, which may form quicker than those organised by supporters of the loser in the United States.

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When an apostrophe might come to the rescue

November 1, 2024: You can call your political opponent garbage, but never his or her supporters. That’s why the White House is working at full throttle trying to repair damage caused by a very recent Joe Biden remark.

And it was just a few days before the presidential election, too. Which makes his administration’s hectic move highly understandable.

Biden was reacting to a comedian who referred to Puerto Rico at a Donald Trump rally as an “island of garbage”. “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” he was originally quoted as saying, prompting a major Republican backlash and sending Trump to ride on a garbage truck in a follow-up campaign.

Kamala Harris is distancing herself from Biden’s controversial remark, of course.

Immigration is a big electoral issue and the Democrats are relying a lot of non-white votes, but the “garbage” remark is too damaging for comfort, especially when America’s political divide is volcanic.

The White House later released a transcript of what Biden said that included an apostrophe. “Supporters” became “supporter’s”.

You be the judge on whether the apostrophe made sense. Here’s Biden full sentence in the official transcript: “The only garbage I see floating out there is [Trump's] supporter’s… his demonisation of Latinos is unconscionable, and it's un-American.”

This is what all media networks reported initially: “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters – his – his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”

Considering Biden, who used to call a senior journalist “stupid son of a bitch” in a hot mic incident, if the garbage remark was meant to be blanket, it’s not a total jaw-dropper. But the apostrophe came straight from the White House so it’s absolutely up to you what to believe.

Whatever your assumption is, Trump is now giving rally speeches in a garbage collector outfit.

Daily updates of local and international events by Tulsathit Taptim