Thai election seen as two-horse race, with Pheu Thai as kingmaker

The February 8 general election will be a battle between the progressive People’s Party and the conservative Bhumjaithai, according to analysts and opinion polls.

While the opposition People’s Party campaign highlights reform – in line with its “orange” predecessors, Future Forward and Move Forward – the ruling Bhumjaithai focuses on national security, amid a border dispute with Cambodia that erupted in two deadly clashes last year.

Pollsters place former ruling party Pheu Thai, which led two coalition governments after the 2023 election, third in the race. However, pundits say it is now poised to play kingmaker – capable of supporting either the election winner or the runner-up to form a new government.

The People’s Party, whose predecessor Move Forward won most seats in 2023 but failed to form a government, topped the latest opinion survey on 33.5 %, with 29 % also supporting its main prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut.

Bhumjaithai trailed behind on 22.7 %, with a 22.2 % approval rating for its main PM candidate, Anutin Charnvirakul.

Predictions by analysts

Analysts pointed out that opinion polls may only reflect the party-list vote, where just 100 MP seats are up for grabs. However, they predict that in constituency races – where 400 seats are available – Bhumjaithai is poised to outperform the People’s Party.

Olarn Thinbangtieo, deputy dean at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law, forecasts that Bhumjaithai will defeat the People’s Party by a margin of 10 to 20 seats, with Pheu Thai coming in third.

“Bhumjaithai’s strength lies in constituency contests, while they will struggle in the party list system. The reverse applies for the People’s Party,” he said.

That prediction was echoed by other pundits.

Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University (STOU), predicted 140-150 seats for Bhumjaithai, 120-130 for the People’s Party, 100-120 for Pheu Thai, 40-50 for the Klatham Party, and 20-25 for the Democrats.

Suvicha Pouaree, director of NIDA Poll Centre at the National Institute of Development Administration, placed Bhumjaithai at around 140-150 MP seats, the People’s Party close behind on 125-135 seats, Pheu Thai third with 80-90, followed by the Democrats (35-45), and Klatham (30-40).

Meanwhile, Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, predicted 150 MP seats for Bhumjaithai, 130 seats for the People’s Party, 80 for Pheu Thai, 70 for Klatham, and 30 for the Democrats.

Possible coalition options

If Bhumjaithai wins the election, analysts say its first option would be to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and Klatham, which are seen as “easier to deal with” than the People’s Party and the Democrats.

The latter two parties have declared they will not work with Klatham, following allegations the party is backed by “grey money” from criminal enterprises.

Yuttaporn, the STOU political scientist, outlines three post-election scenarios:

1. A Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai-Klatham coalition, with the People’s Party and Democrats in opposition.

2. A Bhumjaithai-People’s Party-Democrat coalition, leaving Pheu Thai and Klatham in opposition.

3. A coalition led by the People’s Party (if it wins the election) + Pheu Thai + Democrats, with Bhumjaithai and Klatham in opposition.

Fatal miscalculation?

The opposition-leading People’s Party promises reforms that will boost political accountability and “people’s power”, leading to national development.

Bhumjaithai, meanwhile, is riding a surge of nationalism following last year’s border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. Previously seen as a “provincial party” strong in the lower Northeast, Bhumjaithai is now drawing support from conservatives and nationalists nationwide.

Despite coming third in the 2023 election with 71 seats (behind Move Forward on 151 and Pheu Thai on 141), it managed to form a government last September with support from the People’s Party.

The main opposition party’s MPs voted for Bhumjaithai leader Anutin to become prime minister, without joining his government.

The People’s Party was shorn of its own PM candidate when a court disbanded Move Forward and banned its leader Pita Limjaroenrat from politics for 10 years.

The opposition party agreed to support Bhumjaithai’s bid for power in exchange for its help in amending the Constitution to allow a new charter to be written.

Anutin benefited by securing control over Cabinet posts that would have gone to the People’s Party had it opted to join his government.

He chose to appoint several technocrats and top executives as ministers, a move that helped boost his party’s popularity.

Three of those appointments – Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas – have impressed with their performance over the past four months in office.

Sihasak became Bhumjaithai’s No 2 PM candidate, while Suphajee and Ekniti joined the party’s election campaigns.

Observers have questioned the People’s Party’s decision to hand Anutin the PM’s seat, saying it allowed Bhumjaithai to build momentum and emerge as its main competitor.

Historic national vote

Voters will not only elect 500 members of Parliament on Sunday but also decide whether to create a new constitution.

The two polls on the same day have resulted in Thailand’s most expensive national vote, with a price tag of 8.97 billion baht – 6.7 billion for the election and another 2.2 billion for the referendum.

Each voter will receive three ballot papers: a pink form of political parties in the list election, a green form of candidates in the constituency election, and a yellow form for the constitution referendum.

The referendum question reads: “Do you agree that a new constitution shall be written?”

Voters have three choices: “Agree”, “Disagree”, or “No Answer”.

Thailand has 52.9 million eligible voters – 25.3 million men and 27.6 million women, according to the Election Commission (EC), which forecasts a high voter turnout of over 75%. At the last election, 75.7% of eligible voters cast their ballots.

Sixty political parties have fielded a total of 3,526 candidates to contest in the 400 constituency MP seats. In the 100-seat list vote, 57 parties have put forward a total of 1,570 candidates.

Meanwhile, 43 parties have nominated 94 prime ministerial candidates, according to the EC.