How Bhumjaithai cracked the winning code to stun rivals in 2026 elections

The Bhumjaithai Party surpassed all expectations, even its own, by winning 193 seats in the House of Representatives, emerging as the single largest party and well-placed to form Thailand’s next government.

The People’s Party was a surprise laggard with 118 seats, while Pheu Thai came up with its poorest performance ever with 74 seats in the 500-member lower house.

Prior to the February 8 election, polls were divided between Bhumjaithai and the People’s Party as to who would win the people’s mandate.

Even caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Bhumjaithai leader admitted: “My party won more seats than I expected.”

Bhumjaithai got a further shot in the arm as its close ally Kla Tham Party also won an exceptionally high 58 seats, despite its leaders and some members being sharply criticized for their murky past.

Kla Tham’s de facto leader Thammanat Prompao had spent four years in prison in Australia for drug trafficking before being deported in 1997.

Nationalism and role of local politicians

“Bhumjaithai launched a successful nationalist campaign, especially highlighting the border conflict with Cambodia,” says Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University’s Faculty of Political Science and Law.

He believes Bhumjaithai gained popularity from the border conflict following the Constitutional Court’s dismissal of former PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Anutin, who replaced Paetongtarn as PM in September, was able to form a government with outside backing from the People’s Party.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, also believes that Bhumjaithai benefited from its nationalist campaign, not only related to the border conflict with Cambodia, but also by vowing to protect the Monarchy and promote Thainess.

Along with promoting nationalism, influential local politicians in rural areas played a big role in helping the party win the most number of seats, according to the two academics.

“Voters in rural areas under Thailand’s typical patronage system have personal relationships with influential local figures, which the Bhumjaithai Party leveraged,” says Titipol.

The People’s Party, which did not adopt such a strategy in rural areas, focused its campaign on political reform and rewriting the Constitution, says Titipol.

He believes the party’s decision to back Anutin in September without joining the minority government was an act of “political suicide”.

That vote undermined future democracy and contributed to the decline in popularity of the People’s Party, as its party-list votes dropped by 5 million from 14 million in the 2023 election, according to Titipol.

Did local politicians play a key role?

The Pheu Thai Party lost considerable support after former PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra was accused of conflict of interest in dealing with the border conflict with Cambodia.

A leaked phone conversation between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian PM and current president of the Senate Hun Sen proved fatal for the ruling Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra clan, which calls the shots in the party.

Following its sudden fall from grace, the party was further jolted by defections from its ranks. Some members flocked to Bhumjaithai before the election.

Meanwhile, all 10 Chartthaipattana Party MPs, including its leader and Pheu Thai ally Varawut Silpa-archa, migrated to Bhumjaithai. The addition of several influential local politicians boosted the party’s grassroots strength ahead of the election.

These developments cumulatively paved the path for Bhumjaithai to win far more seats than expected, according to observers.

Olarn pointed out that both Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham Party had been successful in reviving old-style politics, where local influential figures won most seats in provincial areas.

“Bhumjaithai has revived that old political machine,” says Olarn.

In contrast to Bangkokians, who vote based on party popularity, voters in rural areas pay more attention to their reciprocal relationships with local leaders rather than policy platforms.

Olarn’s comment explains the People’s Party’s sweeping wins in Bangkok constituencies, while Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham dominated provinces outside the capital.

How Thai voters choose their MPs

Thai voters are given two ballots: one for local constituency seats and another for party-list seats to choose their favored party.

In Thailand’s parliamentary election system, the 500-member House of Representatives consists of 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats.

The People’s Party, being more popular nationwide, won the largest number of party-list seats, with a total of 31.

Bhumjaithai, although less popular in the party-list vote with 19 party-list seats, secured 174 constituency seats, emerging as the single largest party in the lower house with 193 seats in total, but still short of a simple majority.

A victory for conservatives?

The 2026 election contest was often billed as a face-off between conservatives and liberals. Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, program director of the Doctoral Degree in Politics Development Strategy at National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), does not interpret the outcome as a triumph for conservatives.

“Despite Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham being branded as conservative parties, they failed to secure the most number of party-list seats despite their strong showing in constituency seats. This shows the conservative camp did not win the election on ideological grounds as claimed by many people,” he says.

The People’s Party, which is considered liberal and reformist, won the most party-list seats.

A constitutional referendum was also held alongside the general election, asking voters whether they approve the beginning of the process to write a new constitution to replace the controversial current charter adopted in 2017 after the 2014 coup.

The majority of voters voted for a new constitution. “The constitution referendum result also suggests that the result of the general election was not an ideological victory for conservative forces in Thai society,” Pichai argues.

He suspects widespread vote buying behind the success of the Bhumjaithai and Kla Tham parties, pointing to many alleged irregularities in polling units where people demanded recount of votes by the Election Commission (EC).

Many observers share his view, highlighting alleged irregularities such as the number of counted ballots being higher than the number of ballots cast, or the total tally not matching the number of ballots cast.

Some political analysts say it has gone beyond human error. Many also doubt whether the EC intended to help some parties win.

“One factor that may have helped Bhumjaithai win the most number of seats is the way the EC handled the election,” says Olarn.

Irregularities related to ballot barcodes have been flagged by many observers. They have warned that traceable barcodes would violate the principle of “direct and secret voting” under the Constitution.

Economic platform influenced outcome

Some experts think that the short-term consumption stimulus, known as the co-payment scheme, implemented by Bhumjaithai proved popular, especially among low-income groups and small shop owners. The party promised to continue the co-payment scheme if it led the next government.

“Low-income groups may be satisfied with the co-payment scheme, while the business sector may like the role of an outsider like Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, a successful female business executive,” says Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute.

Suphajee apparently was popular among conservative voters during her election campaign efforts for Bhumjaithai.

Two technocrats—Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a veteran diplomat, and Deputy Prime Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, a former senior Finance Ministry official—also partly contributed to Bhumjaithai’s election performance.

The two technocrats are viewed as bringing their rich experience in their fields to their ministerial roles.