IMF upgrades Thai GDP outlook to 2.1%

The IMF released its World Economic Outlook for this year and the next today, during the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings being held in Bangkok.

It forecasts the global GDP growth to drop to 3.1% for the rest of 2026, as strong AI investment offsets the energy shock from the war in the Middle East.

The IMF describes that the increase in energy prices and other commodities, triggered by the war in the Middle East, has led to, what they describe, as a “negative supply shock”, driving up prices and hampering economic activity.

Despite that, the tech boom, largely driven by AI, acted as a “positive demand shock”, increasing economic activity, especially in trade and investment.

The IMF expects global economic growth, however, to recover to 3.4% next year.

The IMF has also revised Thailand’s GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 2.1% due to increasing AI-related investment.

It also expected that next year’s growth will increase to 2.2%

The IMF said that Thailand has coped well, despite being affected by the energy crisis and the disruption of AI.