Mega projects are Thaksin’s signature

January 14, 2025: It took just a bit too long for the “Entertainment Complex” idea to start to materialise.

Considering Thaksin Shinawatra’s big dreams all controversial in the past and nobody is surprised. That doesn’t mean it’s not a shame, though, because the project which the Finance Ministry pretends had received no outside influences whatsoever would involve the kind of money that could massively upgrade the education of poor Thai children.

The project could involve the setting up of a world-class casino, Thaksin’s life-long dream, which Public Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin said “should benefit Thailand if we regulate it well.”

You all are having the same question, right? What if we don’t regulate it well?

The globally-accepted “most-corrupted nations” table does not look encouraging when “if we regulate it well” is concerned. Out of 180 countries, Thailand is ranked 108th.

Is he or isn't he?

January 13, 2025: The question is easy but potentially devastating.

Is prime ministerial adviser Nuttawut Saikua serving in a political position?

The former leading red-shirt activist insisted when Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra appointed him to the advisory post last year that he would not be serving politically. Even she said he would be giving only general administrative advices, and the prime minister asked the Thai public to disregard the “coincidence” of his appointment and the possibility that her government would face political protests, something the man knows how to organise and how to cope with.

But in a Facebook post this week, Pichit Chaimongkol, a leader of Students and People for Reform of Thailand, a group determined to take the Shinawatras out of Thai politics, suggested that the Nuttawut case would be a Pheu Thai banana peel all over again just like the seemingly-harmless Cabinet appointment of Pichit Chuenban that ended Settra Thavisin’s rising political career.

Eerily, the Council of State, which seemed extremely cautious throughout the Pichit Chuenban trouble, has been acting similarly when it comes to the Nuttawut affair. So, it means things look ominous for Paetongtarn.

Nuttawut would not be able to help by abruptly resigning, just as Pichit Chuenban’s resignation could do nothing to save Settra. Nuttawut’s appointment order is there as the key evidence, and everyone knows he was under a 10-year ban from political activities for a convicted act of extremism almost 20 years ago.

It apparently is not too difficult to classify Nuttawut’s work. Will he have to go if Thailand has a new prime minister? This question will weigh heavily in the minds of those trying to determine if, thanks to Paetongtarn, he has been doing a political job in violation of a court-ordered political ban.

Toughest political question

January 12, 2025: Everyone’s saddened in America. But try mentioning using tax money from those outside California for the LA fire victims.

Some insurers have suggested they need federal help. Others will follow suit. And rebuilding requires a lot more than just insurance money. The hardest question is, how much pro-Republican citizens are willing to pay to help suffering pro-Democrat people?

Their aid will be essential, not just for financial reasons but also for the sake of demonstrating national unity during one of the country’s most critical and tragic moments. What will a badly-divided nation do?

This is no time to bring politics into it. But sooner or later this highly-political question will resound in America. YouTube comments on this particular subject are not encouraging when national harmony is concerned.

The insurance issue is growing. The California insurance commissioner is trying to block insurers from dropping clients. But the insurance landscape in California and across America is drastically changing, with a high-ranking source reportedly quoted as saying that companies are fleeing high-risk areas.

Future insurance premiums in LA will be astronomical. But that’s a future problem. The current one is tough enough, and everybody has a different view about it. To add to that, Donald Trump, renowned for his no-holds-barred public comments, especially when it comes to his Democrat-related disgruntlement, will take over the presidency in a few days.

Politics throws gasoline on LA fires

January 11, 2025: Nothing burns a nation like cutthroat political divide.

As if the Los Angeles fires were not devastating enough, America’s national divisiveness, already destructive as it is, is deepening and getting worse, fueled by the so-called apocalyptic blazes.

California has always been an impregnable Democrat stronghold. Analysts say nothing but the fires could flip it. To cut a long story short, allegations of grave mismanagement or incompetence in Los Angeles will hurt the Democrats badly in future elections, but blaming it on climate change and a combination of uncontrollable and unlucky factors like winds could somewhat ease the damage or even turn the table on “opportunistic” Donald Trump.

The split media landscape in America is where the political fire rages. That the LA tragedy is coinciding with Trump’s court sentencing makes it a perfect storm. He will serve as a “felon president”, how about that, you pro-Trump voters, one side says. Continue voting for the Democrats and ask LA people what you will get, the other side counters.

The death toll will rise. The numbers and costs of property and business losses as well as homelessness are historically massive. Even a strongly-united country with the most peaceful politics and without immense debt burden or heavy international responsibilities will struggle to move on from here.

When bad things happen to good people

January 10, 2925: Los Angeles citizens could not sleep the night before, so it can’t be said that they “woke up” to the worst nightmare imaginable. They couldn’t see first-hand the destruction of their homes and everything else they love, though, because the ravaging fires were so overwhelming and dangerous that where they once lived were absolutely off limits.

Video clips and still photos of the wildfire devastation were horrific, like a showcase scene in a doomsday movie. The most heartbreaking content, however, highlighted ordinary faces with ordinary backgrounds. People cried talking about lost pets, gutted homes that they had invested everything in, wedding picture albums and other priceless memorabilia that they had to leave behind.

Some had been planning parties to celebrate some things. They now wondered what their children’s playgrounds would look like at this moment. There were also those who did not have time to mourn because they had old parents or close relatives to take care of.

Tens of thousands of rai in Los Angeles look like powerful bombs have been dropped on them. Prolonged drought and strong winds made sure it was the worst disaster to have hit LA. Nearly 200,000 people in Los Angeles County were still under evacuation orders (midnight Thursday, Thailand time). About 200,000 others were under evacuation warnings, meaning these people must be ready to leave their homes if ordered.

(Photos from AFP)

Trump's Canada "joke" is no joke for allies

January 9, 2025: It’s no longer funny whether it’s a Freudian slip or not.

US president-elect Donald Trump has raised many eyebrows with his Canada, Panama Canal and Greenland remarks, and while a lot of people insisted that some of his words must be taken with a pinch of salt, others believe his statements contained big clues about how America under him would treat its allies.

Trump’s tough-guy approach means even closest friends will be more “sidekicks” than they ever were, some analysts believe. Simply put, the allies should kiss the concept of “equal footing” goodbye. Granted, such a concept has always been more idealistic than realistic regardless of who ruled America, but the painful reality will be more glaring under the new president.

According to CNN, Trump sees Canada, America’s closest geographical friend, as a freeloader who has comfortably been sleeping under his country’s security blanket. In a tongue-in-cheek manner, Trump suggested that Canada, therefore, should be a state rather than a nation.

“Such a view repudiates the US-led liberal order that sees alliances as investments that multiply American power and protect democracy and freedom,” CNN said in an analysis.

During his first term, he outspokenly wanted NATO countries to spend more militarily as well, didn’t he? It does not matter much what he said in the past, though, because he is saying it again.

“President-elect Donald Trump’s latest demands of America’s NATO partners—that they cede territory to the U.S. and spend more on defense than Washington itself does—risk undermining allies’ confidence and potentially emboldening adversaries,” said The Wall Street Journal.

“That’s causing consternation among Europe’s cash-strapped governments,” said Politico.

The Times of India quoted Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc as saying that Trump’s remark about Canada is not funny.

“The joke is over,” LeBlanc was quoted as saying. “It’s a way for him, I think, to sow confusion, to agitate people, to create chaos, knowing this will never happen.” That was publicly speaking. Because closed doors, though, Canadian and European Cabinet members must be looking at US-related monetary figures at the moment.

Trump 2.0 loading is almost 100% complete, with the whole world watching anxiously.

Thaksin mouthing off dangerously shouldn't be any surprise

January 8, 2025: For a Thai politician who used to say the United Nations was not his father and who is currently in legal trouble because of a stinging remark allegedly against Thailand’s much-revered institution, his controversial comment about African women was just something that waited to happen.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has to come out to defend her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, but she was trying to defend something indefensible. Instead of unconvincingly saying that Thaksin didn’t mean to devalue African women and that he was only meaning to praise the natural beauty of Thai girls, Paetongtarn should have admitted that old habits die hard, and that they even die harder when it comes to her daddy.

The remark about the UN was made in early 2000s, when Thaksin was prime minister and questioned internationally about his “War on drugs” because of its high death toll that critics said might have included extrajudicial killings. Thaksin shrugged off criticism by declaring that “the UN is not my father.”

In addition to that, when election results did not go his way once, then-prime minister Thaksin said something along the lines of his party’s supporters standing to be the first to benefit from policy prioritisation. When he was in exile, he blamed everyone else for his political downfall, and a controversial foreign media interview is still haunting him because he mentioned the entire Thai political culture in a not-so-nice way.

In the past, what Thaksin said was not such a big issue among politically-correct observers or activists, particularly when he was perceived as a “political victim”. Now that he is anything but, they use hair-splitting technique to analyse everything he says, which is coming thick and fast because political rallies are being held practically every other day.

They may get tired soon, because there are more to come.

Censure: Same old People's Party's test

January 7, 2025:Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra will be naturally the opposition’s biggest target in the next no-confidence offensive, but the People’s Party will continue to have a tricky mountain to climb when it comes to her father.

As a so-called “liberal” party opposed to the kind of political “persecution” Thaksin Shinawatra always claimed he faced, the People’s Party will still have to walk a tightrope while addressing the “14th Police Hospital floor” issue which, to many, is one of the weakest points of the Paetongtarn administration.

And as usual, the People’s Party will be judged by the neutrals on “information”, not rhetoric at the censure. Its support or opposition will not be changed by three or four days of no-confidence debate anyway, because that is an ideological matter. To win the hearts of those in between, the party will need to show it’s also good at other aspects of parliamentary duties.

The party’s whip leader Pakornwut Udompipatskul has confirmed that the censure will come either at the end of February or at the beginning of March, depending on everyone’s convenience. There will be both public issues that the people are familiar with and “stories nobody has never heard of before.”

Some information would surprise even certain People’s Party MPs, he said.

Pakornwut noted that while all governments survived no-confidence vote in the past, the Paetongtarn administration had unity problems that could be more or less exploited. Some surprises could even be sprung at the voting, his party hopes.

He reiterated that while Paetongtarn was only months into her government leadership, this government was a lot older and nothing has changed economically and socially thanks to the ruling coalition.

He was elusive, though, when asked by reporters how the People’s Party would tackle the Thaksin issue. “We will address manipulation of the justice system as a whole, a distortion aimed at benefiting certain people,” he said.

Asked if the People’s Party was worried that the public would perceive it as “telling same-old stories”, Pakornwut provided a witty response. “Telling old stories means we are serious, doesn’it?”

Small world for Israel? But Trump will make it great again

January 6, 2025: Soldiers receive and obey orders, so it’s debatable if what looks like a rare campaign to bring legal action to Israeli troopers for the Gaza atrocity is fair.

But it’s happening. According to CNN, a former Israeli soldier on vacation in Brazil had to flee the country suddenly after a case was brought against him there alleging he was responsible for war crimes while serving in Gaza.

It’s apparently a shift in the strategy of human rights activists who normally had focused on policy-makers, not those told to implement policies and were unable to avoid them. The Brazilian case is the latest in a series of lawsuits brought by the Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF), a pro-Palestinian NGO, that has tracked the activities of hundreds of Israeli soldiers involved in Gaza activities.

CNN reported that HRF’s website showed the movement has also sought the apprehension of Israeli soldiers visiting Thailand, Sri Lanka, Chile and other countries. A former senior officer in Israel’s Judge Advocate General’s department was quoted by CNN as saying that there were intensifying overseas attempts to bring charges against Israelis who served in Gaza, although the campaign had not resulted in arrest or trial.

“Moms Up,” a group of Israeli soldiers’ mothers, is deeply worried by the campaign and has written to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF chief of staff following the case in Brazil. Said the group: “We see you as the sole responsible party for removing the legal risk facing our children.”

Gaza-related global developments will likely be heated up after Donald Trump’s second term as the US president officially begins later this month. He is said to be planning devastating sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), with executive orders expected within days of his inauguration. The package could force financial institutions worldwide to terminate or downgrade relationships with ICC personnel and the agency as a whole or face US sanctions themselves.

Reportedly, ICC staff would find it extremely difficult to perform routine banking operations or use credit cards. A lot of their financial activities could be practically frozen except for essential needs like food purchases.

Why is Trump reportedly doing it? The “sanctions” are meant to force the court to withdraw the arrest warrants issued against Netanyahu and some other high-profile leaders responsible for the Gaza infamy.

Does "You're grounded" violate human rights, too?

January 5, 2025: No student likes hair rules. So, doing away with student hairstyle regulations hardly irks the conservatives who used to be children before. After all, how one wears his or her hair does not affect skills, capability or potentials unless you are in specific fields like swimming.

However, to associate student hair rules with human rights stretches it a little bit.

Children faces many rules, many of which are meant to prepare them for the type of discipline that adulthood will require. Why can’t students google for exam answers? Because there is no way else to judge if they had paid attention to what was taught. Why are school uniforms considered (by some) to be important? Let’s wait until 7-Eleven scrap costume requirement for employees and perhaps we can debate. Let’s wait until male MPs can wear shorts to Parliament and then we probably can talk about school uniforms.

Why do school disciplinarians who are chimneys themselves punish students who are caught smoking?

To take it to the extreme, is “You’re grounded” order western parents like to say is a violation of human rights as well? How is it different from school hairstyle or dress rules, which make children unhappy, restrict their “freedom” and would only cause disgruntlement that limits their “potentials”?

Will you ground your kids who come home with half their heads shaved and the long hair on the other half dyed bright red who said it’s their “human rights” to do so? What if the kids with the funny heads go on to be miserable adults who lack basic human rights necessities like foods or shelters? That will be supremely ironic.

How money twists or corrupts politics

January 4, 2025: What’s the deal with political leaders having to be ultra-rich? Thailand, whose average debt per household is more than Bt600,000, has a prime minister whose wardrobe alone (watches included) is worth hundreds of millions of baht and Donald Trump’s net worth is in the billions of US dollars. To add insult to injury, they need donations from ordinary (extraordinarily-poor) citizens for electoral campaigns, here and in the United States.

How have the Shinawatras navigated the political risks associated with being obscenely rich? Of course, they have to make extravagant promises that keep voters hopeful. We have done it so you guys can do it too, every single political leader who is a “successful” business entrepreneur tell his or her public. We are rich because we are smart, so trust us and all will be fine.

Some others use touchable money as a click-bait. “Digital wallet” is just one example of how to keep suspicion at bay. In America, outgoing President Joe Biden has given a weird explanation on why the Democrats fared poorly in the November elections: “I didn’t sign COVID-19 relief checks.”

Either American voters are greedy or Biden was wrongly insulting his own compatriots.

Conventional tyrants, now or in the past, have done it openly, implementing systems of tributes, oppressive taxations or property seizures without excuses. In democracies, measures have to be a lot better camouflaged. Creativity is essential, and it’s a big reason why the world has seen some curious stock or financial instruments and witnessed bank collapses that hurt anyone but the bankers.

Will Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s asset declaration come back to haunt her? Her father’s wealth both enhanced his “economic genius” status and destroyed him politically. (Let’s not forget that Thaksin Shinawatra took over a political party led by one of the most frugal men in politics and somehow managed to build a global status of being a “champion of the poor”. How ironic is that?)

By all indications, Thaksin is attempting to make a comeback using his biological connection with Paetongtarn. But big wealth is a funny thing in politics. It’s all good when it’s on your side, but when it turns against you, it’s devastating.

Significant findings in latest popularity poll

January 3, 2025:It’s debatable what the biggest message of the latest NIDA survey is. The yearend poll on who the most popular politician is contains a few subtle changes in public opinions, and while Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut are competing neck and neck for the top spot, the quiet yet remarkable rise of United Thai Nation leader Pirapan Salirathavibhaga shall not go unnoticed.

Natthaphong has edged Paetongtarn to the top spot as the most popular politician for the premiership, winning 29.85% of support from 2,000 people surveyed, compared with 28.8% for her.

Energy Minister Pirapan, though, continues to climb little by little, getting 10.25%. It's the first time he has broken through the 10% barrier in a popularity survey, and he had taken baby steps forward in every previous poll, while most other politicians have experienced roller-coaster situations.

One thing that might prevent Natthaphong from extreme celebrations is the fact that his People’s Party is farther away from Pheu Thai in popularity when compared with him and Paetongtarn. The People’s Party is clearly the most popular with 37.3% support. Pheu Thai has 27.7%.

United Thai Nation, on the other hand, gets a percentage that is consistent with Pirapan’s popularity. The party is supported by 10.6%, coming third. Bhumjaithai comes fifth with 5.15% and its leader Anutin Charnvirakul is also the fifth most popular politician with 6.45%.

As for the undecided, 14.4% do not have any prime ministerial candidate in minds, being the third biggest group in the “most-liked politician” department, while 8.2% (fourth biggest group in the popular party category) do not like any of the political parties.

Fresh violence in US ushers in new president

January 2, 2025: Every clue indicates that Donald Trump’s second term can be more treacherous than people thought.

The New Orleans tragedy and the Las Vegas cybertruck explosion, an incident whose details remain sketchy and unclear, are a prelude to what is expected to be the most awkward, most controversial, and possibly most scandalous, presidential transition ever.

While more information needs to come out of the Las Vegas incident, it involves a Tesla cybertruck and a Trump hotel. Moreover, the vehicle was rented from the company that was also named in the New Orleans case. These “coincidences” are being investigated.

Everyone knows that it will be extremely difficult for Trump to reign over a badly-divided superpower nation confronted with the inexorable rise of China, escalating tension in the Middle East and the increasingly-controversial war in Ukraine, but the two domestic incidents are alarming signs that big local and international troubles could come a lot sooner than expected and their magnitudes could even be greater than initially thought.

Meanwhile, credit where credit’s due. The NPR, whose neutrality has been questioned by many in and outside the United States, has published stinging questions for the outgoing US president before he leaves office in about two weeks.

With speculation intensifying over whether and how Joe Biden, whose health is reported to be declining rapidly, will have a farewell media session, the NPR is not waiting. The National Public Radio, followed religiously by many Americans and frowned upon by others, has its White House correspondents ask the following questions which admittedly are tough to answer:

You campaigned on the idea that Trump was a threat to democracy. Do you still believe he's an existential threat to democracy? And what's your message to the many Democrats who worry he is?

If Donald Trump was such a terrible president the first time, as you and many Democrats suggested, why did Americans want him back?

You said that the prosecution of your son Hunter Biden had been politicized. Trump says the same thing about the charges against him. Do you feel that the prosecution of Trump was politicized in any way? If not, do you worry about giving credibility to Trump's arguments of an unfair prosecution?

These questions can be the first things that come to minds of journalistic students overseas, but they are not expected from a leading American media outlet that is not Fox News. You will not see the editorial boards of the likes of the CNN, the Washington Post, Time or etc coming up with such questions and posting them prominently on their websites.

More NPR questions have to do with the borders, the Democrat leadership, the possibly long-overdue timing of Biden stepping aside for Kamala Harris, his belief on his “achievements” and his thoughts on how long America will have to wait for a female president.

Biden can just ignore them all. Trump, on the other hand, will face ultra-hostile mainstream media throughout the next four years.

Hello and Goodbye

December 31, 2024-January 1, 2025: People say we just said goodbye to 2023 and welcomed 2024 yesterday, but truth is that we will say the same thing about 2025 in no time.

“New Year” is weird. New today, not so new tomorrow, “how time flies!” weeks from now and before we know it it’s bye-bye all over again.

The whole concept of time is weird, though. As late and famous comedian George Carlin used to say, there is no now, and everything is either the nearest future or the most recent past.

Time is the most mind-boggling thing ever. We live our whole lives pitying the mosquitos for having such “short” life spans (a week or so for males and just a few weeks for the females), but from their perspectives, they could live incredibly long and have a lot more “new years” than us.

We all know why our dogs are so glad to see us in the evening after we left home for work in the morning. It’s because their body clocks say you have been gone for a long, long time. They aren’t pretending or over-reacting. They just miss us miserably.

Scientific studies seem to suggest that the more agile a species is, the “more frames” it can perceive per second. In other words, time goes slower for them. That comes in handy for animals that can fly (so they can avoid collisions) or are predators (so they are very effective in anticipating the moves of their preys).

Some studies even suggest that best goalkeepers see “more frames” per second than normal people, which allow them to react quicker than most others.

That scene in Interstellar, where the hero and heroine come back from an hour-long mission to find that another crew member left behind to man a spaceship has become an old man, only scratches the surface when time is concerned.

If you think 2024 has come and gone so fast, congratulations, because you have not been too idle. Imagine you are in a prison, it must be super slow.

Sizes, experiences, agility, gravity, environment you name it all affect perceptions of time. Here’s what Albert Einstein said: “Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. That's relativity.”

So, if you think 2024 is whizzing by, you have been sitting with a pretty girl or handsome boy.

Happy New Year by the way. Make the next 12 months, either they are slow or fast for you, count. Also, remember that when we think “What? It’s New Year again?”, someone somewhere is counting the days for it, if it’s an occasion of seeing you again.

Daily updates of local and global events by Tulsathit Taptim