Thailand’s strategic role in Myanmar’s future

Thailand is uniquely positioned to play a crucial role in resolving the Myanmar crisis, a fact recognized by both domestic and international policymakers and experts.

As Myanmar’s neighbour with the longest shared border, profound mutual economic and security interests, and as a key ASEAN member, Thailand has significant potential to influence peacebuilding in Myanmar.

While recent diplomatic efforts, especially after the February 2021 coup, have faced quite a barrage of criticism, it's essential to acknowledge that achieving a lasting resolution in Myanmar without Thailand's involvement is quite a challenge.

A legacy of visionary leadership

Over the past 40 years, Thailand's foreign policy towards Myanmar has been shaped by visionary leaders.

Prem Tinsulanonda ended the long-held buffer policy in the early 1980s, Chatichai Choonhavan launched the “Turn the Battlefield into a Marketplace” policy in the late 1980s, Anand Panyarachun introduced "Constructive Engagement" in the early 1990s, and Thaksin Shinawatra pushed for democratisation and national reconciliation in the early 2000s.

These leaders, along with outstanding foreign ministers like Siddhi Savetsila, Arsa Sarasin, Kasem S. Kasemsri, Surin Pitsuwan, and Surakiart Sathirathai, have demonstrated that when Thailand’s foreign policy is guided by experienced and forward-thinking individuals, who command respect at home and abroad, it can have a significant impact.

Based on our past experience and analyses of countries with successful diplomatic efforts, the most important factor for Thailand to proceed on this path is leadership.

We need a leader with vision, understanding, and strong leadership qualities, along with a foreign minister who has the full support of the prime minister, commands respect, and can unify the entire Thai government to move in the same direction.

Navigating complexities with coordination

Since the early 1980s, Thailand has consistently focused on strengthening friendship and cooperation with Myanmar, adhering to principles of non-interference and good neighbourliness.

This approach reflects the country’s commitment to fostering stable and positive relations.

Nevertheless, Thailand’s foreign policy towards Myanmar involves quite a multitude of government agencies, each with specific responsibilities.

This reflects Thailand's comprehensive engagement but also highlights the need for better coordination and clear strategic guidance to maximize effectiveness.

Balancing economic interests and diplomatic strategy

The "Turn the Battlefield into a Marketplace" doctrine has strengthened economic ties between Thailand and Myanmar, creating influential business groups invested in maintaining stable relations.

However, policymakers must balance these economic interests with broader strategic considerations to ensure that economic ties do not overshadow the need for a proactive approach to the ongoing crisis in Myanmar.

A pragmatic approach to the future

Thai officials generally believe that Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, will continue to dominate the country’s governance. This pragmatic view has shaped Thailand’s cautious approach to maintaining stable relations.

While recent policies have been influenced by a sense of comradeship and shared domestic political interests with Myanmar’s leadership, it’s crucial for Thailand to remain adaptable and ready to take decisive action when necessary.

For example, it may be time for Thailand to expand its engagement with key stakeholders in Myanmar beyond the Tatmadaw, as it has done in the past.

We should also keep in mind that, in addition to Thailand, several other countries like China, the US, and India have significant influence over key actors in Myanmar.

Therefore, it is crucial for Thailand to enhance its dialogue with these countries and bring them on board.

The path forward

Thailand cannot remain passive in the face of escalating violence in Myanmar.

As a neighbouring country, Thailand bears the brunt of issues stemming from Myanmar’s civil war, including drugs, refugees, illegal migrants, and transnational crime.

As the situation worsens, it is imperative for Thailand to take a proactive role in promoting peace and stability.

Thai policymakers should reassess the country’s strategy towards Myanmar, considering both the short- and long-term implications of various approaches.

Extraordinary circumstances sometimes require extraordinary measures.

Given the complex situation in Myanmar and its relationships with key countries, Thailand should engage all relevant parties in serious diplomatic efforts.

Resolving the conflicts in Myanmar will require inclusive dialogue.

Thailand is committed to the region’s stability and prosperity. By engaging thoughtfully and decisively with all stakeholders, Thailand can help pave the way for a more peaceful and harmonious future for Myanmar.

Damrong Kraikruan is a former deputy permanent secretary to the Foreign Ministry of Thailand